What did Trump and Harris discuss in their first debate?

Author: Tuo Luo Finance

The U.S. election is becoming increasingly tense, with both polls and betting markets showing a fierce competition between Harris and Trump. As of September 9, 2024, Harris leads Trump by 1.2 percentage points with a support rate of 48.4%. PredictIt betting odds are even closer, with Trump's winning probability recently reversing to lead Harris at 52% to 51%.

Against this backdrop, on September 10 at 9 PM local time, Trump and Harris will hold their first public debate in Philadelphia, a historic city in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. Their performance in this debut is likely to have a significant impact on the election.

Main governance viewpoints of both candidates, source: CICC Research

In the 90-minute debate, the two sides engaged in fierce confrontation on key issues such as abortion, immigration, tariffs, and inflation, but notably, neither mentioned any information related to cryptocurrency.

Here are some of the viewpoints from both sides, with edits and omissions; the original video can be viewed at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgsC_aBquUE.

Inflation and Tariffs:

On tariffs, the two candidates held differing views. Harris opposes comprehensive and significant tariff increases, arguing that Trump unilaterally triggered a trade war. Regarding internal tax views, Harris generally maintains alignment with the Biden administration, advocating for tax cuts for low- and middle-income groups while proposing tax increases for the wealthy and large corporations, including raising capital gains taxes and taxing unrealized capital gains. Trump, on the other hand, advocates for continuing large-scale tax cuts, proposing to lower the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%.

In this context, Harris referred to Trump's proposal for tariffs on foreign goods as a "Trump sales tax," claiming that this cost would ultimately be borne by American middle-class families. She took the opportunity to elaborate on her plan to build an "opportunity economy," which includes making housing more affordable and expanding the child tax credit.

Trump continued to assert his political stance, advocating for significant tax increases. He stated bluntly, "We are raising tariffs, and in some cases, the intensity will be very high." In response to Harris's sales tax claim, Trump countered, "First of all, I do not have a sales tax; that is an incorrect statement." He then criticized Harris for the ongoing inflation during Biden's term, noting that inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, although he referred to it as the worst inflation period in the nation's history, clearly exaggerating the extent of price increases.

He quickly shifted to his primary issue of immigration, again claiming without evidence that "millions of immigrants from prisons, mental hospitals, and asylums" are crossing the southern border with Mexico. He argued that inflation is "a disaster for the people, for the middle class, for every class."

Illegal Immigration

Harris was the first to point out that due to Trump's lobbying of Republicans, immigration legislation from both parties has been undermined in Congress. Trump accused Democrats of supporting "open borders," claiming that immigrants are "occupying" American towns, and that the actual number of illegal immigrants is "much higher" than the published data, asserting that "crime rates are rising." He emphasized that the Biden administration's leniency on immigration is merely to gain more votes, disregarding the interests of other citizens. However, the moderator cited data that questioned Trump's claims about rising crime rates, as FBI data showed an average decline of 15% in all major crime categories in the first quarter of 2024.

Trump immediately claimed that these statistics are "fraudulent," while Harris took the opportunity to mention Trump's criminal charges, stating, "I find it quite interesting that someone who has been indicted for national security crimes, economic crimes, and election interference would say this."

Abortion Rights

On the topic of abortion, which involves reproductive rights, Trump faced fierce attacks from Harris due to his previous comments on banning abortion.

Harris stated, "If Trump wins the election, he will sign a national abortion ban," and noted that after the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the Biden-Harris administration has taken a leadership role in advocating for abortion rights. She assured people that once Congress passes a bill restoring protections for Roe v. Wade, as President of the United States, she would proudly sign it into law. As a candidate, she does not support the Hyde Amendment previously endorsed by Biden, which prevents federal funds from being used for most abortion procedures. Harris further attacked Trump's abortion ban, stating, "Trump should not dictate what women can do with their bodies."

Trump's attitude improved somewhat, responding that he does not support banning abortion and mentioned that Democrats are very radical on this issue, but he would not sign a national abortion ban. He claimed to be a leader in IVF and accused Harris of spreading "lies." "This is an issue that divides our country," Trump said, asserting that this issue should be resolved at the state level.

Clean Energy

On energy, Harris supports clean energy, while Trump's previous rhetoric has largely favored traditional fossil fuels. However, recently, Trump has shown some reversal on this issue, having supported electric vehicles in discussions with Musk. In this debate, he again accused Harris of causing "the demise of fossil fuels" if she is elected, but then stated he is a "super fan" of solar energy. On the other hand, Trump expressed a desire to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, which emphasizes the clean energy industry, reclaim unspent funds, and promised to declare a national energy emergency upon election to significantly increase U.S. oil and gas production, "achieving a substantial increase in domestic energy supply." Notably, Trump has consistently mocked the Democrats' energy and climate plans as a "Green New Scam," as data from the Clean Investment Monitor shows that in the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. continued to see record growth, with investments in clean energy and transportation reaching a new high of $71 billion.

When asked about climate change, Harris articulated that the Biden administration's climate agenda has become a cornerstone of government economic strategy, but did not provide many details about her own policies. However, she has shifted her stance on this issue. Previously, in 2019, she stated she would ban hydraulic fracturing, but in this discussion, she mentioned that she would not ban hydraulic fracturing to gain support from swing states and would invest in various energy sources to reduce dependence on foreign oil. Hydraulic fracturing refers to the process of pumping water, sand, and chemicals underground to extract oil and gas from dense rock formations. Currently, the vast majority of oil and gas production in the U.S. relies on hydraulic fracturing, but this process has faced opposition from environmental organizations concerned about fossil fuel production and groundwater contamination.

Additionally, Harris touted her role as California's Attorney General in suing oil companies, casting a decisive vote for the Inflation Reduction Act, and vowed to "address the climate crisis" while lowering energy costs and ensuring energy security and independence.

Capitol Hill Incident

The discussion then shifted to the Capitol Hill riot in January 2021. When Trump was asked if he felt any regret, he stated that he was "not involved in this matter at all, aside from giving a speech." He attributed the incident to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, claiming that if she had done her job, the riot would not have occurred. Meanwhile, Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, stating that his claims of "losing by a hair" were sarcastic and continued to reiterate his false claims of election fraud (Trump believes the Democrats committed fraud in the election vote).

Harris responded, "We cannot afford a president who would overturn the will of the voters," calling on voters, "It's time to turn the page. We don't want to go back to the old ways."

Interestingly, both candidates mentioned party support, with analysts predicting that the vote percentage in this fall's election will be very close. In response, Harris stated that she has the support of former Republican officials from the Trump administration, claiming that everyone's choice is very wise. But Trump retorted, "That's normal; most of them were people I fired," and sarcastically noted that one frequent criticism of the Biden-Harris administration is that "they never fire anyone."

Geopolitical Conflicts

Regarding geopolitical conflicts, Trump did not answer the moderator's question about whether he wants Ukraine to win the war, but he stated that ending the Russia-Ukraine war and putting a stop to it is in America's best interest, claiming he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict before taking office. Trump specifically pointed out that if he were president now, Putin would be happier because he would not invade Ukraine, losing so many troops and resources.

Harris suggested that Trump would abandon Ukraine in exchange for Putin's support, saying, "Putin will eat you for lunch." "If Donald Trump is elected president, Putin should be in Kyiv right now," Harris said, believing that Trump and the Republicans would abandon Ukraine or reach an agreement with Putin to cede territory to Russia. She also mentioned that Russia would threaten Poland and connected this issue to Polish Americans in Pennsylvania.

When discussing the Israel-Palestine issue, Harris stated that she would defend Israel's right to self-defense, but at the same time, she expressed impatience with the humanitarian issues caused by the Netanyahu government in Gaza. "This war must end immediately," Harris said regarding the Gaza conflict. Trump continued to attack Harris, stating, "She hates Israel; if Harris is elected president, Israel will not exist in two years," adding, "She also hates Arabs, and if I were president, none of this (the Gaza conflict) would have started."

Harris rebutted his claims, pointing out that she has always supported Israel throughout her political career. Harris stated, "I will always give Israel the ability to defend itself." She also called for an end to the war and a two-state solution to provide security for both the Israeli people and the Palestinians.

Outside of the aforementioned topics, both candidates expressed agreement on expanding the child tax credit program, believing it should be credited, and also discussed gun control laws, Obamacare, U.S.-China relations, and U.S.-India relations, with neither showing any significant divergence from their previous arguments.

Overall, throughout the debate, it must be acknowledged that perhaps due to limited prior interaction, Trump did not have enough understanding of Harris, who essentially grasped the essence of provoking Trump, tightly holding onto certain issues, leading Trump to show emotions multiple times during his discourse, while Harris remained relatively stable. However, her statements were predictably conservative and did not stand out. From the core viewpoints, both candidates performed as usual, with little substantive discussion about policies during the debate. Neither candidate advocated for significantly different economic policies from the current ones, continuing to present a situation of increasing divergence on tariffs, immigration, and energy.

After the debate, there was no significant difference in public opinion between the two, but both claimed to have achieved overwhelming victories in the debate, with Trump even stating, "This was a 1 against 3 (Harris + 2 moderators' victory)." In the crypto prediction market Polymarket, Harris's winning probability has risen to 49%.