Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: September 2–6, 2024
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $1.9 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.05%, which is $1.07 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $169.5 billion.
This week, BTC's price has shown a downward trend, with the current price of BTC at $53,827 and ETH at $2,238. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, there has been a general decline, with BEAM dropping 23.91% over the past 7 days and DOGS dropping 22.29%.
The Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator is at 0.53, close to the market indicator from a year ago, which was 0.4 on September 11, 2023, now below the bottom line of 0.45.
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has dropped to 29%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 71%.
On September 7, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 23 (lower than last week), indicating a sentiment of fear over the past 7 days.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Recap
On September 2, CryptoKitties launched a new project called egg, which is an NFT series with a minting price of 0.008 ETH, totaling 3,134 NFTs minted, categorized into common, uncommon, and rare levels. Currently, the floor price of this series is 0.1121 ETH, with a 24-hour increase of 261.67%;
UniSat faced immense pressure on the Fractal testnet due to a surge in bot activity, adjusting the base engraving service fee to 0.01 tFB and increasing the single faucet claim amount to 0.1 tFB. UniSat plans to enhance infrastructure performance and stability before the mainnet launch;
Justin Sun announced that this week the focus will be on reducing Tron network transaction fees to attract more users into the Tron, Meme, and NFT sectors;
The second season airdrop event of Ethena is nearing its end, with the team set to announce airdrop claiming details after summarizing. Currently, Ethena's total locked value (TVL) has dropped to $2.794 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price has rebounded above $58,000, while DeFi protocol fee revenue in August decreased by 24%, marking the lowest since February this year;
The TON Accelerator launched the TON: Acc incubator and TON: Acc Portal, aiming to provide up to $2.5 million in investments for startups on the TON network, supporting their transition from ideas to products and offering investors opportunities to discover early projects;
The EtherVista project has permanently repurchased and destroyed 2.17% of its total token supply through its VISTA token's automatic buyback and burn mechanism, aiming to enhance token value;
The EOS Network Foundation plans to release Spring v.1.0, which adopts the Savanna consensus algorithm to improve the speed and efficiency of the EOS network and introduces technical enhancements for privacy and security;
Ripple plans to launch the XRPL EVM sidechain in 2025 to enhance the programmability of the XRPL development ecosystem, including smart contracts, and explore native features on the XRPL mainnet;
The Tron network's gas fee revenue in August reached $61.43 million, a month-on-month increase of 46.54%, indicating increased network activity. Meanwhile, gas fee revenues from other networks like BSC, Ethereum, Solana, and Bitcoin showed varying increases and decreases;
On September 4, Samsung's Samsung Next invested in Sony's blockchain Soneium development team Startale Labs;
Pendle released a report on the Penpie attack incident: after discovering the vulnerability, they immediately paused the contract, saving $105 million in assets;
On September 4, Justin Sun announced the destruction of $8 million worth of SUN tokens, with an additional $4 million pending destruction;
On September 6, 4.9% of TON holders were in profit, with wallets holding TON for over a year accounting for 5%.
Macroeconomics
On September 5, Ripple Labs' legal team requested a suspension of the $125 million fine, which may indicate that the SEC will appeal the case;
On September 7, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has dropped to 29%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 71%.
ETF
Statistics show that from September 2 to September 6, there was a net outflow of $706.2 million from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs; as of September 6, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $20.012 billion, currently holding $11.959 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $19.102 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $50.307 billion.
The net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $9.11 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Upcoming Events
TOKEN2049 Singapore 2024 will be held from September 18 to 19, aiming to define the next steps in the Web3 space;
Permissionless III, hosted by Blockworks, will take place from October 9 to 11 in Salt Lake City, Utah, providing panel discussions, networking opportunities, and more.
Project Progress
Enjin Relaychain v1.3/Enjin Matrixchain v1.1 is set to launch on the mainnet on September 9, with this upgrade named Kampong Glam, bringing updates including token deposit offerings;
The effective date for the Bitcoin and Gold mixed ETF STKD Bitcoin&Gold by Tidal Investments and Quantify Chaos Advisors is September 9, 2024;
The synthetic asset platform Kresko announced its shutdown, requiring users to complete asset withdrawals and migrations by September 10, with Discord support ending on September 20, 2024. After September 20, users will need to use the Kopio frontend for withdrawals;
Optimism proposed the Granite upgrade, which, if the related proposal is voted through, is planned for September 11 at 00:00, aiming to address security vulnerabilities identified in a series of third-party security audits by Spearbit, Cantina, and Code4rena, none of which have been exploited, and user assets have never been threatened;
The MEME platform Four.Meme in the BNB Chain ecosystem is hosting a meme creation contest that will run until September 13, with a total prize pool including 1 million Four.Meme points and $20,000 worth of meme tokens;
Block's cryptocurrency trading app Cash App will close its UK operations on September 15, having provided services in the UK for six years.
Important Events
Two U.S. presidential candidates, Trump and Harris, have agreed to participate in a debate hosted by ABC News on September 10. Additionally, Trump has signed up for two more debates, one hosted by Fox News on September 4 and another by NBC News on September 25;
The X platform will close its San Francisco headquarters on September 13, with employees in San Francisco being relocated to offices in San Jose or Palo Alto, while the X platform's headquarters is expected to move to Texas.
Token Unlocking
Xai (XAI) will unlock 35.88 million tokens on September 9, valued at approximately $6.43 million, accounting for 6.29% of the circulating supply;
Pendle (PENDLE) will unlock 227,200 tokens on September 11, valued at approximately $597,000, accounting for 0.14% of the circulating supply;
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on September 11, valued at approximately $65.37 million, accounting for 2.32% of the circulating supply;
io.net (IO) will unlock 2.87 million tokens on September 11, valued at approximately $4.31 million, accounting for 3.02% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing detailed and professional analysis for the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidelines for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play to Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed breakdowns of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto space for the first time or a seasoned investor seeking deeper insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and seizing market opportunities.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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