Matrixport Research: A critical month is approaching, what will be the future trend of BTC?
The release of July PCE data is imminent, which may provide a basis for the speed and extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.BTC is about to face its most challenging month, September. Historically, September has a negative return rate, and this year adds extra pressure, including Nvidia's earnings forecast impacting the outlook for the U.S. tech industry, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election debate (between Harris and Trump).
Many events in September will significantly impact BTC's price movement.
Nvidia's Earnings Forecast Released, $196.7 Billion Market Value Lost in One Day
After Nvidia's earnings report was released, several investment banks raised Nvidia's target price, with 61 analysts giving an average target of $143.44. While the sell-side market is thriving, the buy-side market is not convinced. On August 29, despite most tech stocks rising, Nvidia fell 6.38%, losing $196.7 billion in market value in a single day.
From the end of 2022 until the second quarter of 2024, there has been a strong correlation between Nvidia and BTC prices. However, recently, as artificial intelligence rebounded and Nvidia's stock surged, BTC did not keep pace. Both assets are breaking new lows, indicating an increase in consolidation depth.
U.S. Employment Data Release Imminent, Market Closely Watching Job Market
The market is about to respond to the U.S. employment data to be released on September 6. At the end of 2022, most economists predicted that the U.S. economy would fall into recession in 2023, but Matrix on Target remains optimistic, forecasting that U.S. inflation will drop from 8% to 3%. However, this time, the Federal Reserve's focus seems solely on controlling inflation. Fed Chair Powell emphasized this shift in focus during his speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, stating that the job market is the main concern.
U.S. Interest Rate Hike/Cut Decisions Impact BTC Trends
During the 2018/2019 rate hike cycle, BTC struggled at times, but it saw a strong rebound after the Fed stopped raising rates. However, after the rate cuts, BTC experienced a brief rebound before gradually declining, with the overall trend still leaning downward.
Harris Polls 48% Ahead of Trump, Election Race Uncertain
According to Jinshi Data, a Wall Street Journal poll shows Harris with a support rate of 48%, while Trump has a support rate of 47%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%. Since the Harris couple does not hold any crypto assets and has not publicly stated their views on crypto assets, the market is closely watching Harris's team's attitude toward crypto assets.
On August 27, Trump stated on social media that he had reached an agreement with ABC to participate in the presidential debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, where he will debate Harris. This debate will impact BTC's price.
The above views are partly from Matrix on Target. Contact us for the complete report from Matrix on Target.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
