Web3 Daily Review (2024/8/29)
I. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Trends
(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l Tech Stocks Lead Pressure on US Markets
As Nvidia announced its earnings report, investors sold off tech stocks, chip stocks, and AI stocks, leading to a broad decline in US markets on Wednesday. Nvidia's stock price fell before the earnings report, dragging down the chip index and the Nasdaq by over 1%. The "meme stock" of AI, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), decided to postpone the release of its Q4 results the day after being targeted by short sellers, causing its stock price to plummet by over 19%. Nvidia's post-market earnings report showed that Q2 revenue continued to exceed expectations, but the Q3 revenue guidance did not meet the highest expectations. It is expected that the Blackwell chip will generate billions of dollars in Q4, but it did not directly respond to whether this amount is incremental, causing the stock price to fluctuate and drop sharply after hours. Nvidia's unexpected growth was reduced, dampening market enthusiasm, and its stock price initially rose by 2% after hours before plummeting by over 8%, affecting other tech stocks which also fell after hours. The Nasdaq 100 dropped by over 1.3% at one point after hours, AMD fell by over 3.8%, Arm Holdings dropped by over 3.6%, and Advanced Micro Devices fell by over 6.7%, while Micron Technology dropped by over 3.3%.
(2) Web3 Field:
l Kakao and LINE Launch Layer 1 Blockchain Mainnet
According to Mars Finance, communication giants Kakao and LINE have launched the mainnet for their Layer-1 blockchain, Kaia. Builders on Kaia will be able to create Telegram-style applications on the LINE communication tool. Kaia is a merger of Kakao's Klaytn and LINE's Finschia. This Layer-1 blockchain is expected to address challenges in web3 user experience and distribution through deep integration with Kakao and LINE messaging applications. Its ultimate goal is to establish an ecosystem supporting DeFi, gaming, real-world assets, and web3-based messaging applications. Alongside the mainnet, a builder support program called Kaia Wave has been launched. Eligible teams using the Kaia SDK will receive $1.2 million worth of marketing, technical, and business support. Other benefits include future token generation events and liquidity support. Meanwhile, users will be able to trade Kaia tokens on HashKey Global starting from August 29.
l Economist Report: Institutional Investors Continue to Increase Digital Asset Allocation
A report commissioned by OKX shows that more institutional investors are researching new digital assets and planning to incorporate them into their portfolios. Institutional investors remain optimistic about digital assets; in addition to holding cryptocurrencies, they are also embracing tools such as staking and derivatives. Despite ongoing optimism, further adoption still faces challenges. By 2027, institutional investors expect to increase their digital asset allocation in their portfolios to 7%. The market size of tokenized assets is expected to exceed $10 trillion by 2030, indicating significant growth for the industry. However, the new report commissioned by OKX from The Economist points out that challenges remain. Currently, asset managers allocate 1%-5% of their assets under management (AUM) to digital assets.
2. Hot Events
Web3 Field:
l Telegram Founder Released on €5 Million Bail, Not Allowed to Leave France
According to ChainCatcher and Xinhua News Agency, the Paris prosecutor announced on the 28th that Pavel Durov, the founder and CEO of the social media platform Telegram, who was previously arrested in France, was charged after his detention ended that day. He was released on bail under judicial supervision but is not allowed to leave France. Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau stated that Durov was released on bail under judicial supervision, required to pay a €5 million guarantee, report to the police station twice a week, and is prohibited from leaving French territory.
l Kakao and LINE Launch Layer 1 Blockchain Mainnet
According to Mars Finance, communication giants Kakao and LINE have launched the mainnet for their Layer-1 blockchain, Kaia. Builders on Kaia will be able to create Telegram-style applications on the LINE communication tool. Kaia is a merger of Kakao's Klaytn and LINE's Finschia. This Layer-1 blockchain is expected to address challenges in web3 user experience and distribution through deep integration with Kakao and LINE messaging applications. Its ultimate goal is to establish an ecosystem supporting DeFi, gaming, real-world assets, and web3-based messaging applications. Alongside the mainnet, a builder support program called Kaia Wave has been launched. Eligible teams using the Kaia SDK will receive $1.2 million worth of marketing, technical, and business support. Other benefits include future token generation events and liquidity support. Meanwhile, users will be able to trade Kaia tokens on HashKey Global starting from August 29.
l Wintermute Redeems 30,007 ETH in Three Days and Transfers 14,500 ETH to CEX
On August 29, in the past 9 hours, Wintermute's address received a total of 11,007 ETH (approximately $27.27 million) from Lido for unstaking, and subsequently deposited 5,501 ETH (approximately $13.8 million) into Coinbase.
3. Hot Narratives
What’s Next for the Ton Ecosystem?
Pavel Durov, the founder and CEO of Telegram, was arrested by French intelligence after landing in Paris on Saturday. Following the news, the TON token immediately dropped but has since stabilized. Currently, it seems that these charges are not directly related to TON. It remains unclear whether this arrest signals a broader crackdown on decentralized systems, including TON, or whether it will extend to other social media/messaging applications or other blockchain networks.
Overview of the TON Network: TON is the native asset of The Open Network (TON), ranking 11th in market capitalization among cryptocurrencies, with a market cap exceeding $14 billion, positioned below Tron and above Cardano. According to CoinGecko, TON's FDV is $28.5 billion, with daily trading volume on centralized exchanges exceeding $1 billion. The network has 600,000 wallets and executes 6 million transactions daily. According to Messari's calculations (excluding wash trading), the recent trading volume of TON on centralized exchanges has ranged between $200 million and $600 million, with August 25, 2024 (Sunday) being the largest trading day of the year, exceeding $1 billion.
As a project performing well in the L1 space, Toncoin has maintained its position among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Although Toncoin initially gained attention through Telegram's mini-programs and games, its excellent performance is its core competitive advantage. Test data shows that Toncoin's TPS metric has surpassed that of Solana, demonstrating outstanding performance. Additionally, it benefits from traffic from the Telegram platform with 900 million users, coupled with the continuous strengthening of community consensus, suggesting a broad future development prospect for Toncoin, with further developments and breakthroughs to be expected.
Early investors in Toncoin are relatively optimistic about the arrest of Telegram's founder. Crypto media DLNews interviewed several VC representatives regarding Durov's arrest: CoinFund partner Alex Felix stated that he does not regret his venture capital firm's investment in TON, as the fundamentals of TON have not changed. Ryze Labs' business development director Joven Wu stated, "This controversy has greatly increased TON's visibility and may attract more users and developers to this ecosystem." Shauli Rejwan, managing partner of Masterkey VC and an early investor in Toncoin, believes that TON may one day completely detach from its relationship with Telegram.
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Figure 1: Total TVL of TON DeFi | Figure 2: Total Trading Volume of DEX over 30 Days | | | | | Source: Dot Labs | Source: Dot Labs |
4. Potential Catalysts
l Coingecko's Latest Report: PolitiFi Tokens Outperform MemeCoins in the Market
According to Coingecko's latest report, PolitiFi tokens have outperformed MemeCoins in the cryptocurrency market, achieving higher percentage returns. These cryptocurrencies represent a subset of the broader meme coin category, inspired by events and political figures. Despite having similar backgrounds, these tokens are not associated with any individual politician and do not provide governance or on-chain utility for holders. Their value is purely speculative, and prices are often influenced by attempts at market manipulation. Despite numerous flaws, PolitiFi tokens have significantly outperformed classic MemeCoins since the beginning of this year. Specifically, from January 1, 2024, to August 25, this category grew by 782.4%, while MemeCoins only grew by 90.2% during the same period.
As of August 25, the largest currency by market cap in this group is PEOPLE, with a market cap of $385.6 million. This project was created in 2021 by ConstitutionDAO to raise funds to purchase an original copy of the US Constitution. However, the organization failed to achieve its mission due to being outbid at auction, but the currency continues to exist and has achieved some success. The second most popular PolitiFi cryptocurrency is MAGA (TRUMP), a MemeCoin inspired by billionaire entrepreneur Donald Trump. The logo of this cryptocurrency prominently features the face of the politician, and the project is dedicated to supporting his campaign. The third most influential PolitiFi cryptocurrency is MAGAHat (MAGA), which is also inspired by presidential candidate Donald Trump. Since the beginning of this year, this currency has grown by 1292.1%, with its market cap increasing from $2.6 million to $35.5 million.
Prospects for the Upcoming US Presidential Election: A Decrease in Political MemeCoins. The most astute observers have likely noticed a common factor in the charts of the PolitiFi cryptocurrencies showcased by Coingecko. They all reached historical highs around June, followed by a three-month downward trend. After the initial excitement at the beginning of this year, enthusiasm for these speculative coins has waned. As we approach the end of the election campaign and the counting of votes for the presidential election in November, speculators' interest in betting on this event has diminished. This is because the scenarios for the election results are becoming increasingly predictable, reducing the potential for speculation and eliminating possible trading opportunities. Relevant research reports indicate that from now on, the prospects for these PolitiFi cryptocurrencies are likely to continue the bear market trend, with many such MemeCoins ultimately disappearing. Future attention can be given to the subsequent direction of PolitiFi.
II. Attention Value - Hot Projects
1. Social Media Hotspots
l The TON project is receiving widespread attention and positive reviews on social media, with its popularity continuing to rise.
The TON ecosystem has 730 applications across 19 categories, including wallets, decentralized exchanges (DEX), games, and more. From May 20 to June 16, 2024, the average daily number of new digital wallets for TON remained stable at around 200. As of June 16, 2024, the total number of wallets has exceeded 4,000, reflecting the continuous addition of new users and high retention rates among existing users. Additionally, TON's circulating market cap has reached 17.63 billion USDT, ranking it as the 8th largest cryptocurrency globally, demonstrating its market stability and significant growth potential.
Key Projects:
l DOGS
At a time when the TON ecosystem lacks a representative MEME, the viral black and white dog seems poised to become a cultural symbol rapidly disseminated via Telegram. The name of this black and white dog token is succinct: DOGS, inspired by the mascot Spotty created by TON's founder Pavel Durov. According to the official introduction, it is the meme coin that best embodies the spirit of Telegram, reflecting the spirit and culture of our vibrant community. We are bringing Spotty's legend into the cryptocurrency world, creating a fun, community-driven, and unique product.
According to Bitget data, the DOGS token has risen by 21.7% in the last 24 hours, currently priced at $0.0015.
2. KOL Attention
l Fastest Growing Projects Among KOLs:
Today, the projects that have seen the most significant increase in KOL attention include BNB, TAO, FET, CREO, LAND, FLOKI, and CAT.
Among them, the most noteworthy development for BNB is the official launch of the BNB Chain Bridge. Recently, there has been a positive outlook on its ecosystem development, and market sentiment is optimistic. The most notable viewpoint is that BNB is expected to become the first value investment variety in the cryptocurrency circle; FET recently launched the San Francisco Innovation Lab and pledged to invest $10 million annually to support AI-driven startups, which may positively impact its price, with market sentiment being relatively optimistic.
Source: AlphaScan, Dot Labs
l AI Automatically Selects Projects:
Automatically selected based on public sentiment and overall positive emotions.
Source: AlphaScan, Dot Labs
l Important KOL New Project Recommendations:
- ArkiTech (@ArkiTechAi /X)
Arki recently launched two new products, Raid2Earn, a community-driven reward system; and Raidar, which integrates Telegram and Twitter accounts through a one-time login, allowing the community to interact directly with tweets from Telegram and earn real tokens through Raid-2-Earn rewards. - QUBIC (@Qubic /X)
Qubic is a Layer 1 UPoW-driven network aimed at achieving True AI with genuine determinism and high-speed smart contract execution. Today, its team destroyed 150 billion $Qubic. - SRM (@SolareumChain /X)
Solareum is the world's first Layer 1 blockchain verified by 100% Green Energy, currently applying for a patent for its Proof of Generation® technology, which utilizes and certifies renewable energy to power the ecological energy Layer 1 blockchain network.
3. Smart Money Accumulation
l Smart Money Holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
l Smart Money Inflows
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation
1. Hot Sectors
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Internal Sector
Source: Dune, Dot Labs