Market bullish sentiment is high, while lower funding rates indicate that investors are becoming more cautious and rational | Matrixport Market Observation
Market risk appetite is returning, and the positive correlation between BTC and U.S. stocks is increasing. Powell has signaled a potential interest rate cut, making it crucial for BTC to hold its support level.Market Trends
In the past week, BTC has shown an overall upward trend with fluctuations. As signals for interest rate cuts become clearer, BTC rose alongside U.S. stocks on Friday, breaking through $64,000 and entering a narrow range of fluctuations over the weekend. Although BTC fell below the support level of $63,000 on the 27th, it quickly entered a rebound phase. As of the publication of this article, BTC is fluctuating around $62,800. ETH has shown relatively high volatility, with a maximum increase of 11% and a maximum decrease of 5.4% over the past week (data sourced from Binance spot market, August 27, 15:00).
Market Analysis & Hot Topics
BTC has rebounded over 30% since hitting a low in August, indicating a return of market risk appetite.
Although BTC's recent rise has been relatively weak compared to U.S. stocks, since hitting a low of $49,053 in August, BTC has increased by over 30%. The market believes that the positive correlation between BTC and U.S. stocks has risen, based on the easing of interest rate cut expectations and reduced market selling pressure (law enforcement has largely completed the distribution of seized BTC, and the distribution to Mt. Gox creditors is nearing completion), indicating a clear return of market risk appetite. At the same time, bullish sentiment in the market is high, but comprehensive data shows that investors are becoming more rational.
Powell signals interest rate cuts, and the market generally believes the timing is right.
On August 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the timing for policy adjustments has arrived and that he does not seek or welcome further cooling of the labor market, expressing increased confidence in inflation returning to 2%.
The Wall Street Journal noted that Powell has sent the strongest signal for interest rate cuts to date, indicating that the Federal Reserve intends to take action to avoid further weakening of the U.S. labor market.
San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that the timing for interest rate cuts has arrived, but it is still too early to determine the extent of the cuts. The most likely scenario is that inflation will continue to gradually slow, while labor market growth remains sustainable. If economic development proceeds as expected, it is reasonable to adjust policies at a normal pace. If economic weakness exceeds expectations, more aggressive measures will be needed.
The market size for tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds surpasses $2 billion.
According to data from the RWA monitoring platform RWA.xyz, as of August 25, the market size for tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds has exceeded $2 billion, with BlackRock's BUIDL fund at $502 million, ranking first; Franklin Templeton's FOBXX fund at $425 million, coming in second.
Telegram founder arrested, TON ecosystem affected.
On August 26, the founder of Telegram was arrested, with the French prosecutor's office issuing a formal statement that he was detained due to an investigation into cybercrime. It was noted that "the police-imposed detention restrictions were extended on August 25, 2024, with the maximum detention period potentially lasting up to 96 hours (until August 28)." Following the news of the Telegram founder's arrest, the TON ecosystem's TVL plummeted but then rebounded. The DOGS community and figures like Musk have expressed support for the Telegram founder.
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With the promotion of crypto regulation and related legislation, the policy relevance of crypto assets is increasing. Although expectations for interest rate cuts are favorable for risk assets, and with the multiple positive factors of the U.S. election and BTC halving overlapping, the volatility of mainstream assets like BTC remains high. Diversifying assets and making rational investments is currently the best choice.
The core-satellite strategy is suitable for most investors, allocating the majority of funds to stable, cost-protective products while allocating a small portion for high-yield structured products (for example, 70%-80% of assets in capital-protected products, and 20%-30% in relatively high-risk, high-return financial products). By combining different products, strategic investments can achieve returns in a highly volatile market while managing investment risks.
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