The approval rating for universal suffrage reaches 70%, surpassing Trump. What kind of policy will Harris adopt towards cryptocurrency in the future?

Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Star Daily

The prediction market Polymarket data shows that Kamala Harris (hereinafter referred to as Harris) has a 77% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, while Trump has dropped to 21%. A month ago, following an assassination attempt, Trump's chances of election rose to 70%, far exceeding Biden's, which also led to a significant surge in Bitcoin, peaking at $70,000.

The Biden administration has maintained a strict regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies. As the current Vice President and Biden's successor, will Harris continue the harsh regulatory policies in the future? Odaily will analyze based on market information.

The Silent Harris

Public information and White House financial data show that U.S. Vice President Harris and her husband have significant investments, but neither holds any digital assets. She has never made any statements supporting or opposing digital currencies, tokenization, blockchain, or NFTs.

Last Thursday, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna hosted a meeting aimed at repairing relationships within the cryptocurrency industry. About twenty people attended, including government officials such as the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, the Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, the Deputy Chief of Staff at the White House, and Harris's senior advisor Kristine Lucius; cryptocurrency representatives included billionaire Mark Cuban, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, and executives from companies like Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Uniswap.

However, Harris did not attend the meeting. According to FOX reporter Eleanor, the communication during the meeting was not smooth, and the atmosphere was tense, with disputes occurring between both sides. The reason, Eleanor believes, is that Harris has never made a statement, and team members were unable to make commitments while trying to repair the relationship with the cryptocurrency industry. Harris's team's performance was described as "willing to listen but not making commitments."

Recently, Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her partner. Walz has also never clearly stated his stance on cryptocurrency policy. The only public event involving cryptocurrency was when he received a $4,000 political donation from former FTX engineering director Nishad Singh in October 2022.

The Team is Working

Although Harris has not publicly stated her attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry, her team's actions still reveal certain signs.

According to a recent report by Bloomberg, Harris has hired three external individuals to assist in refining her latest economic messaging, including her first economic advisor since becoming Vice President, Mike Pyle, as well as two former economic aides to Biden, Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti. Insiders indicate that while the overall proposal is relatively lenient, it calls for taxing wealthy cryptocurrency holders.

Regarding the three external individuals involved in shaping economic messaging, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, stated that Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti are key figures opposing cryptocurrency within the Biden administration, and he analyzed their roles in opposing cryptocurrency. This article does not elaborate on specific content; readers can refer to Alex's original post (click to jump).

Alex further pointed out that Mike Pyle has long worked for Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is the Senate's most prominent opponent of cryptocurrency; Mike worked in Elizabeth's Senate office, responsible for her presidential campaign's economic policy.

Market Opinions

Bernstein: Harris's Election is Bearish for the Crypto Market

Brokerage firm Bernstein recently stated in a research report that if Trump wins the U.S. election in November, it would be beneficial for the cryptocurrency market, while a victory for Harris would be detrimental.

The report noted that Bitcoin weakened after Polymarket odds and polls shifted to support Harris, and it is expected that Bitcoin will remain range-bound until the election situation becomes clearer. Trump has been outspoken about his cryptocurrency policy and has engaged with companies in the industry, Bitcoin miners, and the broader community, promising favorable support for Bitcoin and crypto innovation in his policies, even mentioning the possibility of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.

Gemini Co-founder: Supporting Harris is Opposing the Crypto Industry

The U.S. Federal Reserve has taken enforcement actions against banks that support cryptocurrency clients, requiring them to provide 30 days' notice before establishing new banking relationships with cryptocurrency companies. This has raised questions about the sincerity of Vice President Harris's campaign team in repairing relationships with the cryptocurrency industry.

Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson both stated that the current U.S. government holds an adversarial stance towards the cryptocurrency industry, warning voters that supporting Harris could be detrimental to the U.S. cryptocurrency industry.

Arthur Hayes: Who Wins Doesn't Matter, Bitcoin Will Rise Eventually

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in an interview that it doesn't matter whether Trump or Harris wins the next U.S. presidential election for the cryptocurrency industry. Although the cryptocurrency industry has donated a lot of money to Trump, it is not enough to surpass the contributions from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs. Therefore, even if Trump is elected, he may still face the same issues as in his first term: despite being able to say some friendly things about cryptocurrency and trying some policies, if the entire government opposes it, nothing will be accomplished.

Regarding Bitcoin and monetary policy, Hayes stated that whether under a Trump or Harris administration, money will be printed, just in different ways, so cryptocurrencies will rise, but the path may be very bumpy.

Paradigm Research: Harris Needs to Attract Support from the Crypto Community

According to a recent survey by crypto investment firm Paradigm, U.S. Vice President Harris may need to attract more support from the crypto community to strengthen the Democratic Party's chances of winning the election in November.

The survey of 804 registered Democrats found that 13% of respondents had not yet decided whether to vote for Harris. Among the undecided respondents, 18% had invested in cryptocurrencies, and 21% of cryptocurrency investors believed the Biden administration was "too hostile" towards the industry.

Overall, the survey indicated that due to the Biden administration's unfriendly stance towards the cryptocurrency industry, a small portion of Democrats (1% to 2%) may lean towards Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Republican Senator Vivek Ramaswamy: Harris Will Support the Crypto Industry

U.S. Senator Vivek Ramaswamy expects Harris to embrace Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry. Ramaswamy stated, "I think this is a good thing for the country… This shouldn't be a partisan issue."