Harris vs. Trump, who should crypto enthusiasts choose to side with?

Author: Tuo Luo Finance

Biden has stepped down, and Harris has come in.

After Biden chose to withdraw, Trump has been in the spotlight during this period. The story of his old rival's surrender and narrow escape shines a bright light on Trump's aura as the leading man in life, showcasing his sense of achievement. The crypto world has also been buzzing, as politicians' speeches at the Bitcoin conference sparked positive sentiment, and the much-anticipated presidential candidate Trump remains optimistic, even his son has joined in, with the whole family rallying to support the crypto space.

However, it is unfortunate that cheers do not always translate into votes, a common occurrence in the political arena. On August 6, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris won the party's primary election, securing the Democratic nomination for president and officially stepping out from behind the scenes to face the election. Although the crypto industry has high hopes for Trump, Kamala Harris does not appear as weak as the aging Biden, showing strong performance in polls.

According to polling data compiled by the U.S. election information website "Real Clear Politics," as of August 6, Harris led Trump by an average of 0.2 percentage points in national polls, but Trump led by 1.5 percentage points in key "swing states." The close data makes the battle between the two more intense. According to Xinhua News Agency, Harris and Trump are pouring about 98% of their campaign advertising into five traditional "swing states." In this context, the small crypto voter base has once again become a target for both parties.

At present, Trump has positioned himself as the "crypto president," gaining a first-mover advantage. Harris, on the other hand, has been rather ambiguous; she did not attend the Bitcoin conference and has not publicly stated her stance on crypto, and her chosen running mate, Tim Walz, does not seem to be a crypto enthusiast either.

Where will the banner of crypto ultimately fly? It is clear that the Democratic Party will never give up this portion of the electorate.

01 Harris, the ultimate buff of political correctness

Before discussing her stance on crypto, let's briefly introduce Harris herself. As the first Black woman Vice President in U.S. history, she is quite legendary in her own right.

Kamala Harris attending an event, source: White House website

Kamala Harris was born in 1964, with a father who was an African immigrant from Jamaica and a mother who was a Tamil from southern India. Both parents were highly educated and actively participated in the American civil rights movement, advocating for racial equality and opposing segregation, which laid the foundation for Harris's own political beliefs.

As an adult, Harris attended Howard University, primarily composed of Black students, where she studied political science and economics, earning her Juris Doctor degree in 1989. After graduating, she became a deputy district attorney in Alameda County, California, officially starting her political career.

As an African American, Asian American, and woman, she is stacked with political correctness buffs. Harris is also adept at leveraging her advantages, playing the race card and aligning herself with the more relatable Obama, even adopting the Chinese name "He Jinli" to show goodwill towards the Chinese American community.

Setting aside the scandals, Harris's outstanding speaking ability and hard work led to a smooth political career. In 2003, she became the district attorney for San Francisco, and with Obama's support, she was elected California Attorney General in 2010 and successfully re-elected in 2014, becoming the first Black woman to hold that position in the U.S.

In 2019, the ambitious Harris officially announced her candidacy for the 2020 U.S. election and gained fame for her sharp criticism of Biden's racism during the party debates. However, due to mixed reviews of her tenure as Attorney General and her often contradictory political positions, coupled with a strong field of Democratic candidates that year, Harris ultimately withdrew before the primaries.

However, although she did not secure the presidency, she inadvertently ended up with the vice presidency. After the Floyd shooting incident in 2020, a massive minority movement erupted in the U.S., and Harris, who had a natural advantage in this area and was also a woman, was chosen by Biden as his running mate, ultimately for the sake of electoral balance.

During her time as Vice President, Harris was responsible for the complex immigration issues, and she did not achieve any significant political accomplishments, failing to become a political focal point, with average voter attention and party evaluations labeling her as "a very typical vice president." Therefore, after Biden announced his withdrawal, there was considerable controversy within the Democratic Party, but from the current perspective, the party is indeed facing a situation where there is no one available and can only gamble on Harris. In this hasty transition, Harris even inherited 1,300 staff members and $96 million in funds that had previously worked for Biden's campaign, which led to mockery from Trump and the opposition.

From a political standpoint, Harris's views are in line with Biden's, inheriting and continuing Biden's policies on taxation and foreign affairs. Compared to Trump's unilateralism, she emphasizes opposing isolationism and advocating for international cooperation in foreign policy, but in other areas, she presents a mix of innovation and conservatism, highlighting personal differences. For example, in trade policy, Harris opposes free trade and has proposed more radical green economy issues. In terms of advantages, unlike Biden, age is no longer a concern for presidential candidates; she is also more favored by women and minorities. Recently, she opened a TikTok account to connect with young voters, gaining 4 million followers.

Harris's TikTok account is gaining attention, source: TikTok

02 Harris on crypto, "currently in contact"

But back to crypto, what is Harris and her party's stance on it?

The fact is, until now, Harris has not directly expressed her views on crypto. From the disclosed financial situation, her family does not hold any crypto assets. However, this has led to many rumors surrounding her position.

One is the denial camp. Due to the previous harsh stance of Biden's main party on crypto, many believe that Harris may also express a negative view on crypto. David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, even revealed that a major Democratic donor disclosed Harris's negative views on cryptocurrency behind the scenes, stating, "Kamala privately said that Bitcoin is the money of criminals." Meanwhile, her opponent Trump bluntly stated in a conference speech, "Harris is an opponent of crypto." As a result, Harris faced criticism from the crypto industry and ultimately did not attend the Bitcoin conference.

As for her running mate, 60-year-old Minnesota Governor Walz, a former member of the U.S. Army National Guard, possesses characteristics typical of traditional military and political figures. He has publicly referred to the exaggerated behavior of Trump and his running mate JD Vance as "freaks," appealing to older white demographics and conservatives. Overall, Walz has not expressed any views on crypto, but from his insistence on a 100% clean energy policy, it can be inferred that the Bitcoin mining industry may not be very appealing to him.

Harris's running mate Tim Walz, source: New York Times Chinese website

The second is the support camp. In response to Trump's assertions, many Democratic figures have come forward to oppose, stating that Harris is actively learning about the crypto industry and does not fully adhere to harsh positions. Democratic representative Wiley Nickel stated at the Bitcoin conference that 28 elected Democratic representatives have sent a joint letter to party leaders proposing to include support for digital assets in the party platform, choose a pro-innovation SEC chair, and engage with the industry in a meaningful way. From a personal relationship perspective, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge, mentioned that Harris's relationship with Elizabeth Warren, a clear crypto opponent trusted by Biden, and current SEC chair Gary Gensler is not close.

In fact, the Democratic Party cannot turn a blind eye to the enticing crypto votes. This is indeed the case; just last week, Harris's team hired former Binance advisor David Plouffe and former Ripple board member Gene Sperling to join the campaign, indicating a thawing attitude.

On July 29, comprehensive reports indicated that Harris's team is engaging with the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, including Coinbase, Circle, and Ripple, to ease the tension between the Democratic Party and the crypto industry. According to the team, they hope to have more constructive dialogue with the crypto industry and establish a regulatory framework conducive to the development of cryptocurrencies. Last Thursday, the California Democrats also held their first meeting with the crypto industry.

Moreover, candidates will never turn down money. From disclosed fundraising documents, Trump's campaign team received over $3 million in crypto contributions in the second quarter alone, with donations from founders of several crypto companies, including Winklevoss, Kraken, and Messari. In response, according to FOX Business, the U.S. Democratic Party recently launched the "Crypto for Harris" campaign to counter Trump's appeal in the cryptocurrency industry. Democratic crypto supporters plan to hold an online town hall meeting this Thursday, where several guests, including Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci, will speak about ways to support Harris's campaign and fundraising.

In this regard, pressured by electoral support rates and corporate influence, another 180-degree turnaround may also occur with Harris. Given that Harris's strong voter base previously did not encompass the crypto sector, the actual actions and specific degree of relaxation remain to be seen. During last Thursday's meeting, a reporter revealed that the communication situation was tense, almost a one-sided fierce attack and emotional venting from crypto companies towards White House policies, and ultimately, neither White House representatives nor Harris's advisors made any commitments. Additionally, the recent requirement by the Federal Reserve for crypto-friendly bank Customers Bancorp to notify 30 days in advance before establishing any new banking relationships with crypto companies has also prompted the industry to reassess Harris's stance on crypto.

It is certain that before the election truly concludes, both parties will undoubtedly have new competitions in the crypto arena.

03 Election tension, focusing on immediate interests is the best strategy

For the crypto industry, betting on both sides may be the best approach, as aligning words and actions is not simple, especially in front of politicians known for their exaggerations. Data from Polymarket shows that the crypto wind is also blowing towards Harris, with her having a 52% chance of winning, slightly ahead of Trump.

Crypto market prediction data, source: Polymarket

On the other hand, Silicon Valley is also erupting in a values battle surrounding the election. Silicon Valley has always been a solid support for the Democratic Party, but Biden's previous tough stance on tech antitrust has damaged this voter base, causing some representatives from Silicon Valley, such as Ben Horowitz and Marc Andreessen, to shift their support to Trump. Harris has previously assisted in establishing AI regulations, and her foreseeable dovish stance has once again turned Silicon Valley's attention.

From a personal values perspective, industry insiders indicate that the vast majority are more accepting of Harris's political views, and those who have recently switched to support Trump do not represent the entirety of Silicon Valley's thoughts. Tech executives and major Democratic fundraiser Steve Spinner even declared, "For every person who supports Trump, there are 20 who support Kamala." Currently, over 800 venture capitalists, led by Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, have pledged their support for Harris.

Silicon Valley initiates support for Kamala, source: vcsforkamala official website

Investors share the same sentiment; for example, Cuban, who previously expressed support for Trump, is now actively campaigning for Harris. Although this move may not significantly impact votes beyond fundraising, as venture capitalists often do not belong to swing state demographics, it is evident that even considering only the probability of election, Harris will not be easily defeated. On September 10, Harris will face Trump in their first direct confrontation, and both have agreed to participate in a debate hosted by ABC News on that date, which will greatly influence subsequent public sentiment.

Regardless, the political drama in the U.S. will continue for some time, and the crypto spectators' MEME still has considerable room for speculation. Focusing on immediate interests and not placing hope in any one individual is the survival strategy for the crypto world.