Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: August 5-9, 2024
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.12 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.6%, or $1.2 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $165.7 billion.
The crypto market has been affected by insufficient liquidity during the summer, net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, interest rate hikes in Japan, and major institutions selling large amounts of tokens. In the first half of the week, the crypto market was in despair, with BTC dropping below $50,000 on August 5 and ETH falling below $2,200; in the second half of the week, prices slightly rebounded, with BTC rising above $60,000 and ETH above $2,600.
In the overall market decline, all tokens experienced a pullback, with MEME rebounding strongly. The popular project Neiro (ETH) saw a 72.32% increase over the past 7 days. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, HNT increased by 45.24% over 7 days, and SUI increased by 36.15%.
The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut interest rates in September, optimistic about price trends in the second half of the year, but not optimistic about the market in August.
On August 9, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 48 (market sentiment shifted from fear last week to extreme fear), with this week's sentiment: 4 days of fear, 2 days of extreme fear, and 1 day of neutrality.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On August 5, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 12 hours reached $748 million, with long positions liquidating $649 million, affecting 200,000 people;
On August 5, global stock markets generally fell, with Japanese stocks dropping more than 4.4% at the start of the day, the Korean KOSPI index falling over 3%, and the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index widening its decline to 2.1%, while Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by 2%;
On August 5, Ethereum network gas fees soared to 681 Gwei, possibly due to on-chain liquidations. In the past 24 hours, DeFi lending liquidations exceeded $320 million, setting a new high for the year;
On August 6, the ZkRollup network Zircuit opened ZRC airdrop claims, with 7% of the ZRC supply (262,200 addresses) eligible for claims, out of a total of 10 billion tokens, with 21% allocated for airdrops and community rewards;
On August 6, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio hinted on social media that he may have built positions again, involving 2x perpetual contracts for ETH and SOL;
On August 6, DEX trading volume exceeded $20.2 billion, setting a record for the third highest in history;
On August 7, the meme coin market rebounded comprehensively, with new meme coins FWOG, NEIRO, and HITMAN leading the rise;
On August 7, large Bitcoin-holding whales increased their BTC holdings during the market decline, while small holders reduced their positions;
On August 8, Ripple CEO stated that the SEC's resistance to the XRP community has disappeared;
Arbitrum now supports USDC as a custom gas payment token;
On August 9, Putin stated that cryptocurrencies are full of prospects, and Russia must "seize the opportunity";
On August 9, Franklin Templeton's blockchain fund has launched on the Arbitrum network;
On August 9, Celestia is about to undergo the Lemongrass upgrade, involving multiple consensus layer changes.
Macroeconomics
On August 6, U.S. SEC lawyers opposed Coinbase's subpoena requests, which sought to search "essentially all documents related to crypto." The court documents submitted on Monday represent the latest development in the ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Coinbase;
On August 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations;
On August 6, Japanese TSE index futures triggered a circuit breaker to the upside;
On August 7, the Nasdaq exchange and the world's largest asset management company BlackRock plan to launch options for its spot Ethereum ETF and begin trading;
On August 8, according to Coindesk, although the Ripple case is reportedly over, the SEC is expected to appeal the ruling, meaning related legal matters may be prolonged;
On August 8, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 31.5%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 68.5%. By November, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 15.7%, a 75 basis point cut is 55.6%, and a 100 basis point cut is 28.7%;
On August 9, former U.S. President Trump stated that he agreed to debate Vice President Harris on September 4, 10, and 25, and expressed hope that Vice President Harris would agree to the debate dates.
ETF
According to statistics, from August 5 to August 9, there was a net outflow of $159.6 million from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs; as of August 9, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $19.451 billion, currently holding $14.188 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $20.972 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $57.124 billion.
There was a net inflow of $10.48 million into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.
Foreseeing the Future
Upcoming Events
Istanbul Blockchain Week will be held from August 13 to 14 in Istanbul. Istanbul is a city that connects continents and cultures, and cryptocurrencies and Web3 have played a key role in the lives of its people;
WebX Asia 2024, hosted by Japanese Web3 media CoinPost, will take place in Tokyo, Japan, from August 28 to 29, 2024. The conference gathers professionals related to crypto assets, blockchain, and other Web3 technologies, providing attendees with direct interaction with companies, experts, entrepreneurs, investors, government officials, and media from Japan and other countries;
Korea Blockchain Week (KBW) 2024 will be held from September 1 to 7 in Seoul, South Korea. This annual global blockchain and Web3 event is founded and hosted by FACTBLOCK, co-hosted by Hashed, and aims to attract blockchain enthusiasts, investors, organizations, and industry leaders who wish to delve into the cryptocurrency, blockchain, and Web3 industries.
Project Progress
Immutable will close the IMX Marketplace on August 13, with the IMX Marketplace fully ceasing operations on September 27. The Immutable Marketplace was built to showcase the features developers can use through the Immutable SDK, and will now focus on supporting third-party markets instead of maintaining its own trading platform;
The AI operating layer gm.ai will launch its token GM on Solana on August 14;
Scroll will deploy the Darwin proof recursive upgrade on the Scroll Sepolia testnet on August 14, which will reduce gas fees by approximately 34% and will go live on the mainnet on August 21.
Important Events
Former U.S. President Trump stated that he will have an important interview with Tesla CEO Elon Musk on August 12 (local time) Monday night;
Bybit will cease operations in France, and will liquidate remaining open positions after 16:00 on August 13, after which only asset and fund withdrawals will be allowed;
Grayscale has appointed former Goldman Sachs Global Head of Asset and Wealth Management Strategy Peter Mintzberg as CEO, effective August 15, at which time Mintzberg will also join Grayscale's board;
OKX will cease most services in the Nigerian market on August 16;
FTX liquidator PwC stated that FTX.com customers need to choose whether to participate in the official liquidation process in the Bahamas (Bahamas process) or the Chapter 11 case in the U.S. (U.S. process), and must make their choice by 4:00 PM on August 17.
Token Unlocking
Aptos token APT will unlock 11.31 million tokens on August 12, worth approximately $57.34 million, accounting for 2.4% of the circulating supply;
The Sandbox token SAND will unlock 205 million tokens on August 14, worth approximately $48.96 million, accounting for 9% of the circulating supply;
Starknet token STRK will unlock 64 million tokens on August 15, worth approximately $22.11 million, accounting for 3.95% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing detailed and professional analysis for the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidelines for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play and Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of trends in the cryptocurrency industry, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto space or a seasoned investor seeking in-depth insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and seizing market opportunities.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
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