Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: July 29 – August 2, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.33 trillion, with BTC accounting for 55.334%, which is $1.29 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $164 billion.

This week, the price of BTC fell from a peak of $70,000 on July 29 to as low as $61,000, influenced by various factors including net outflows from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF. ETH's price dropped from $3,390 to below $3,000. Most of the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap saw declines between 10% and 40%, with the declines widening compared to last week. Notably, Neiro-related tokens topped this week's popularity chart, with Neiro (ETH) increasing by 964.56% over the past seven days. The summer has seen a lack of liquidity in the crypto market, with most liquidity concentrated in BTC and ETH, while altcoins have experienced declines, and the popularity of MEME tokens is hard to sustain, averaging a lifespan of 1 to 2 weeks.

It is worth mentioning that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted on Wednesday (July 31) to maintain interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that if conditions are ripe, a rate cut may occur in September.

The cryptocurrency market is expected to remain weak in August, with a potential reversal after the rate cut in September.

On August 3, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 37 (market sentiment shifted from greed last week to fear), with this week's sentiment: 1 day of fear, 2 days of neutrality, and 4 days of greed.

Understanding Now

Weekly Major Events Review

1. Swell Network: A snapshot will be taken on the 30th, with the first airdrop planned for October 8;

2. YouTube has once again seen a fake Elon Musk scam, defrauding users into sending cryptocurrency;

3. Layer3: Airdrop claims opened on July 30 and token staking is supported;

4. Vitalik Buterin shared his outlook on Ethereum's next decade, mentioning improvements in scalability and reductions in transaction fees;

5. The savings interest rules for Worldcoin Vault appear to have changed, generating returns only for the first 500 Worldcoins;

6. The Discord of Ethereum Layer 2 network Metis was hacked, and users were warned not to click on any suspicious links;

7. Grayscale announced that its decentralized AI fund is now open to qualified investors, holding five types of crypto assets;

8. Matrixport stated that Bitcoin currently has no correlation with Nasdaq;

9. Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio has completed building positions in long-term altcoins;

10. Bitcoin mining difficulty was adjusted up by 10.5% to 90.67 T, setting a new historical high;

11. Stablecoin market cap and Tether performance: The stablecoin market cap reached $164 billion, a near two-year high; Tether's net profit for the first half of the year was $5.2 billion, a record high;

12. Solana DEX's trading volume surpassed Ethereum for the first time in July, reaching $55.876 billion;

13. Polymarket experienced explosive growth, with weekly active users increasing about 14 times this year.

Macroeconomics

1. Federal Reserve policy and market expectations: The probability of a rate cut in September is 100%, maintaining rates unchanged, and not seeking to issue CBDCs;

2. On July 28, Trump stated at the Bitcoin 2024 conference that on his first day as president, he would fire current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler;

3. On August 1, two American artists filed a lawsuit against the SEC, seeking a declaratory judgment from a Louisiana court, stating that their upcoming NFT project would not violate U.S. securities laws;

4. The SEC announced a compensation notice for Terraform, prioritizing compensation for investors and creditors.

ETF

According to statistics, from July 29 to August 2, there was a net outflow of $82.4 million from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF; as of August 2, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $19.059 billion, currently holding $15.005 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $21.456 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $59.383 billion.

The net outflow from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $169.4 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. The first Malaysia Blockchain Week 2024 will be held from July 31 to August 1, hosted by Lydian Labs, focusing on education, regulatory advocacy, and showcasing innovative projects;

2. WebX Asia 2024, hosted by Japanese Web3 media CoinPost, will take place in Tokyo, Japan, from August 28 to 29, gathering professionals related to crypto assets, blockchain, and other Web3 technologies, providing attendees with direct interaction with companies, experts, entrepreneurs, investors, government officials, and media from Japan and other countries;

3. Aptos will host the Code Collision hackathon from August 1 to September 30, with a total prize pool of $500,000. Registration for the hackathon is open from July 2 to September 30, covering five tracks: DeFi/RWA, Gaming/NFTs, AI/DePIN, social, and other innovations;

4. The "FORESIGHT 2024" annual summit will be held from August 11 to 12 at the Marriott Hotel in Ocean Park, Hong Kong. The third FORESIGHT annual summit returns to Hong Kong after 15 months, co-hosted by Foresight Ventures, Foresight News, and The Block, aiming to provide a platform for global Web3 builders to exchange ideas and connect East and West, bridging regional differences.

Project Progress

1. The Starknet Cairo 2.7.0 version testnet upgrade is scheduled for August 5;

2. Jupiter's active staking reward claims are open until August 6, where users must actively claim ASR rewards, and JUP will be automatically staked, while other tokens will be sent to wallets;

3. Gitcoin Grants 21 will launch from August 7 to 21;

4. Whales Market founder dexter announced that the GM token is ready for release, with news expected around the 24th. dexter stated that GM will not be a VC pump-and-dump coin or a cabal meme coin, but rather the most community-focused utility AI coin with the most lines of code written over the past few months.

Important Events

1. Coinbase narrowed the scope of the subpoena, requesting Gensler to provide only emails from his tenure as SEC chairman, with the SEC required to respond by August 5;

2. FTX and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have agreed to a $12.7 billion settlement, with a related hearing scheduled for August 6;

3. The deadline for filing claims in the Terraform Labs bankruptcy case is set for 5:00 PM Beijing time on August 22, with claims against TFL to be filed before January 21, 2024, and claims against TLL to be filed before July 1, 2024.

Token Unlocking

1. Hashflow token HFT will unlock 13.62 million tokens on August 7, worth approximately $2.47 million, accounting for 3.11% of the circulating supply;

2. Xai token XAI will unlock 35.88 million tokens on August 9, worth approximately $10.56 million, accounting for 6.91% of the circulating supply;

3. Immutable token IMX will unlock 32.47 million tokens on August 9, worth approximately $45.46 million, accounting for 2.11% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is dedicated to providing detailed and professional analysis of the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to offer clear market insights and practical operational guidelines for investors at different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play to Earn Web3" tutorial series, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time market observations. Whether you are a newcomer exploring the crypto space or a seasoned investor seeking deeper insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner in understanding and seizing market opportunities.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.