Super Week is coming, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, non-farm payroll data, and tech giants' earnings reports to be released intensively

This week, the financial markets are迎来了备受瞩目的"超级周", with the interest rate decisions from the central banks of the US, Japan, and the UK, as well as earnings reports from tech giants and US non-farm payroll data set to be released. The market is holding its breath, preparing for a series of significant events that could impact global asset prices.

Super Central Bank Week is Here

This week marks the beginning of Super Central Bank Week, with the market focusing on the interest rate decisions from the three major central banks: the US, Japan, and the UK, with the Federal Reserve's actions being the most closely watched.

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, August 1. The market generally expects that the Fed will continue to "hold steady" and keep rates unchanged, but will release clearer signals regarding potential rate cuts in its statement, which could trigger a chain reaction across the stock, bond, forex, and crypto markets. Most financial institutions predict that, with the decline in US inflation and rising employment pressures, the Fed's two main goals—full employment and price stability—will become more balanced, leading to a rate cut in September.

FedWatch shows a 90% probability of a rate cut in September

At the same time, the decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are also under close scrutiny. Whether the Bank of Japan can maintain its long-standing accommodative monetary policy amid changes in the global economic environment, or whether it will make adjustments, has become a focal point of market speculation. The Bank of England faces dual pressures from rising inflation and slowing economic growth, and its monetary policy direction is also crucial for the pound's exchange rate and the global financial market, with the choice between a 25 basis point rate cut or keeping rates unchanged still full of uncertainty.

US July Non-Farm Payrolls

This week, the likelihood of the Fed changing its interest rate decision is low, with the focus on non-farm payroll data and unemployment rates. On Friday, the US will release its non-farm employment data for July. The labor market determines the trajectory of inflation and directly affects market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy path in September. If the data shows strong employment and a low unemployment rate, it may further solidify market expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady, thus putting pressure on market sentiment. Conversely, if the data is weak, it could increase the likelihood of a rate cut in September, becoming a significant positive for the market.

Currently, the market expects the July non-farm payroll data to show moderate growth and a cooling trend, which is likely to reinforce expectations of a continued cooling labor market and open a window for a rate cut in September. It is worth mentioning that the September meeting is the last key rate cut window before the results of the US elections are announced.

Intensive Earnings Reports from Tech Stocks

This week, 40% of S&P 500 companies will report their earnings, including tech giants such as Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, AMD, Qualcomm, and Intel.

Main earnings report release times for major giants

Last week, due to disappointing earnings reports from Google and Tesla, market risk aversion increased, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks. Through the earnings reports from Google and Tesla, investors speculate that US tech giants may face increased spending but slowing revenue growth in the second half of the year. Following this week's earnings reports, the performance of these tech giants may further test investors' "AI faith," and concerns about their profitability may further impact the performance of US stocks.

This week, with the intensive release of policy directions, economic data, and earnings reports from tech giants, the global financial market is filled with uncertainties and variables. However, it is this uncertainty that breeds rich trading opportunities. For savvy investors, volatility is not an obstacle but a catalyst for asset appreciation. Investors should maintain a high level of vigilance and keen insight, and develop diversified investment strategies in advance to flexibly respond to various potential market trends.

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