BTC approaches the $95,000 mark, is there still room for growth? A look back at BTC's performance after previous elections

After Trump won the election, everyone expected the U.S. government to accelerate its embrace of cryptocurrencies, keeping the Bitcoin market hot. On November 21, the price of Bitcoin hit an all-time high, approaching the $95,000 mark.

As the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin played a central role in this "Trump rally," with its price rising over 35% since election day. This year, Bitcoin's price has already doubled. Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization is $1.87 trillion, about 10% of gold's market cap, surpassing traditional giants like silver and Saudi Aramco, making it the 7th largest asset globally.

Clear Policy Expectations Accelerate Bitcoin's Rise

As the first U.S. president to be very friendly towards cryptocurrencies, Trump promised several measures to support cryptocurrencies during his campaign, such as incorporating Bitcoin into the national reserve, making the U.S. the world's cryptocurrency capital, and easing regulations. With Trump's victory, combined with the Republican sweep of both houses of Congress, the White House and Congress's three consecutive wins give Trump significant power to implement his agenda after taking office on January 20. The clearer policy expectations have accelerated the traditional crowd's embrace of Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin spot ETF has become the most convenient channel for U.S. stock investors. Data shows that the BTC spot ETF has seen a continuous influx of funds, with the total inflow of the top ten ETFs increasing over a 7-day period, and the current Bitcoin spot ETF holds over 1 million Bitcoins.

In addition to ETFs, several institutions are also continuously buying. "Bitcoin whale" MicroStrategy raised about $2 billion between October 31 and November 10, purchasing 272,000 Bitcoins. On November 16, it again acquired 51,780 Bitcoins for about $4.6 billion, with management planning to raise $42 billion between 2025 and 2027 to further increase its Bitcoin holdings. Currently, MicroStrategy owns about 1.67% of the circulating Bitcoin globally. Additionally, other publicly listed companies in the U.S., Hong Kong, and Japan have also disclosed their Bitcoin holdings in recent financial reports, with more and more listed companies planning to use Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.

Trump's crypto-friendly stance not only impacts U.S. policy but also drives the layout of crypto assets in various countries worldwide. Currently, El Salvador continues to buy 1 BTC daily, with its Bitcoin holdings reaching about 5,900 BTC. The Bhutanese government holds over 12,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 34% of its GDP. Market news indicates that Gulf oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar may be investing in Bitcoin at the sovereign level.

Is There Still Room for Growth? Reviewing BTC Trends After Past Elections

In this cycle, due to Trump's endorsement, the market has reacted particularly enthusiastically, with prices now approaching $100,000. Does this mean that the policy benefits following the election have already been fully reflected in the price, and is Bitcoin's room for growth now limited?

Historically, U.S. elections have had a long-term impact on Bitcoin prices. During the 2012 election (November 5), Bitcoin's price soared from around $11 before the election to over $1,100 in November of the following year, an increase of nearly 12,000%. After Trump was elected president in early November 2016, Bitcoin's price started at around $700 and reached nearly $18,000 by December of the following year, an increase of about 3,600%. The November 2020 election coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, and within a year, Bitcoin surged 478%, reaching a high of about $69,000.

Data shows that after the first three elections, Bitcoin has consistently maintained an upward trend. Although the growth rate has shown a gradually decreasing trend, it has never fallen back to the price on election day, ultimately reaching a peak the following year. If this trend occurs again, Bitcoin's price should peak in about a year.

It is important to note that the timing of the U.S. presidential elections coincides with Bitcoin's halving cycle. In the past, Bitcoin was a niche alternative investment market, and compared to elections, halving had a more direct impact on prices. However, in this cycle, Bitcoin has already integrated into the U.S. financial system and become part of policy, making the impact of this election on its price more direct, undoubtedly providing new momentum for Bitcoin's price increase.

All current signs indicate that the U.S. election has become a key node for the development of cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin may end 2024 with overwhelming positive momentum, while 2025 looks even more optimistic. eeee.com is the official partner of the Argentine national team, supporting spot and contract trading of over 200 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, covering various sectors with high liquidity and low fees.

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