Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: July 22–26, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.37 trillion, with BTC accounting for 54.44%, which is $1.29 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $163.9 billion.

This week, the price of BTC fluctuated between $64,000 and $68,000, affected by net outflows from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF, causing the price of ETH to drop from $3,500 to $3,100. Among the top 200 projects ranked by CoinMarketCap, the price fluctuations were within 20%, with MEW increasing by 92.51% over the past 7 days and SATS increasing by 23.07%.

On July 27, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 72 (market sentiment similar to last week), with all 7 days this week indicating greed. The market shows signs of recovery.

It is worth mentioning that this year's Bitcoin 2024 conference has invited 10 U.S. political figures, including Trump, while U.S. Vice President Harris will not be speaking at the conference.

Understanding the Present

Weekly Major Events Recap

1. The prediction market platform Polymarket saw a trading volume exceeding $24 million on July 21, setting a new historical high;

2. OKX Web3 wallet launched Meme mode;

3. On July 23, Willy Woo stated that bullish indicators have suppressed bearish indicators, and if BTC breaks through $73k, it could squeeze shorts to $77k;

4. On July 23, the U.S. SEC released multiple notifications regarding the effectiveness of Ethereum spot ETF S-1 applications;

5. U.S. politicians can accept cryptocurrency donations on the Base chain;

6. On July 23, according to Arkham data, Mt. Gox transferred a total of $2.85 billion in BTC to a new wallet today to distribute 5,110 bitcoins (worth $340.1 million) to four different Bitstamp addresses;

7. Grayscale's Ethereum spot ETF (ETHE) saw a net outflow of $484.9 million on its first day;

8. The parent company of Pudgy Penguins completed over $11 million in financing, led by Founders Fund;

9. The crypto lobbying organization Fairshake has raised over $200 million, becoming the largest super PAC in the U.S. presidential election cycle;

10. Former New York Fed President Dudley called for an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve;

11. On July 25, data showed that two days after the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF, there was an overall net outflow of $19 million;

12. The Russian State Duma passed a bill legalizing Bitcoin mining and allowing the use of cryptocurrencies for international trade;

13. If the price of Bitcoin falls below $60,000, it will trigger $385 million in long liquidations;

14. Statistics show that the average decline of celebrity MEME coins reached 94%, indicating poor market performance.

15. Trump's campaign team has no plans to arrange a debate with Harris, stating that the Democrats may nominate other presidential candidates;

16. The Arbitrum community proposed to open the permission for deploying the Orbit chain outside of Ethereum, with Arbitrum taking 10% of the on-chain profits;

17. The Sui mainnet will integrate the DAG-based consensus algorithm Mysticeti, with a phased upgrade expected in the coming weeks.

Macroeconomics

1. On July 22, Bitcoin.com reported that seven U.S. states jointly challenged the SEC's regulatory authority over cryptocurrencies;

2. On July 22, Bitcoin Magazine revealed that after Biden's withdrawal, current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may resign in early 2025;

3. On July 24, Coinbase filed a motion in a court document submitted on Tuesday, requesting a New York court to order the SEC and Chairman Gary Gensler to hand over the core documents related to the lawsuit claimed by Coinbase;

4. On July 25, crypto asset management firm Hashdex plans to launch an ETF that directly holds spot Bitcoin and Ethereum, establishing the first index-based cryptocurrency ETF in the U.S.;

5. On July 26, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points in September is 88.6%.

ETF

According to statistics, from July 22 to 26, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $532.6 million; as of July 26, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $18.814 billion, currently holding $18.403 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $22.967 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $64.506 billion.

The U.S. Ethereum spot ETF officially launched on July 23, and as of July 26, it had a net outflow of $341 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. EDCON 2024 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from July 26 to 30. EDCON is an annual Ethereum community development conference aimed at inviting influential industry leaders and projects from around the world to participate and share information. This event includes a 5-day workshop, gatherings, and speeches from industry leaders;

2. The seventh season of HackaTRON, hosted by TRON DAO, will accept submissions from July 25 to October 8, with a preliminary period from October 9 to 23, and a review and community voting period from October 24 to 31, with winners announced on November 13;

3. The 2024 Malaysia Blockchain Week will be held in Kuala Lumpur from July 29 to August 1;

4. Aptos will host the Code Collision hackathon from August 1 to September 30, with a total prize pool of $500,000. Registration for this hackathon is open from July 2 to September 30, covering five tracks: DeFi/RWA, Gaming/NFTs, AI/DePIN, social, and other innovations.

Project Progress

1. Liquidswap will launch its token on July 30, with 15% allocated for airdrops and staking rewards. 42 million LSD will be minted at genesis and will be available over three years, with 40% of the tokens allocated to the community (15% for airdrops and staking rewards), and the snapshot has been completed;

2. EOS Network announced that the Leap 6.0 upgrade will take place on July 31, with the final version of Leap 6 planned for release on July 10. All EOS nodes are advised to upgrade between July 11 and 30 to ensure a seamless transition and network synchronization;

3. The Solana ecosystem DePIN protocol io.net has temporarily removed Apple M chips from its supported device list, with support for M2 Ultra and M3 devices continuing until the end of this month;

4. RWA credit protocol Zivoe plans to launch its credit protocol on July 31 and simultaneously initiate an ITO (Initial Tranche Offering), allowing liquidity providers to deposit stablecoins into Zivoe's senior or junior pools and receive tokens in return;

5. TrueUSD reminds all BEP2-TUSD holders to convert their tokens to TUSD tokens on other network standards before July 31, 2024, due to the gradual phasing out of the BNB Beacon Chain;

6. The Bitcoin-native Layer 2 network Bitlayer's second phase of the head mining festival will continue until July 31 at 18:00, offering participants Bitlayer tokens (BTR) worth $1.2 million as rewards, along with airdrops from ecological projects.

Important Events

1. A New York federal court judge sentenced Mango Markets attacker Avi Eisenberg on July 29, ruling that Avi Eisenberg committed fraud and market manipulation;

2. CME and cryptocurrency benchmark index provider CF Benchmarks plan to launch two new cryptocurrency reference rates and real-time indices for XRP and ICP starting July 29.

Token Unlocking

1. The Optimism token OP will unlock 31.34 million tokens on July 31, worth approximately $58.92 million, accounting for 2.79% of the circulating supply;

2. The dydx token DYDX will unlock 8.33 million tokens on August 1, worth approximately $10.83 million, accounting for 3.65% of the circulating supply;

3. The ZetaChain token ZETA will unlock 53.89 million tokens on August 1, worth approximately $36.26 million, accounting for 18.92% of the circulating supply.