Investment Opportunities for Ordinary People in the Next 10 Years (1)

A few days ago, I saw a report stating that the five major state-owned banks (Industrial, Agricultural, Bank of China, China Construction, and Bank of Communications) collectively released the latest RMB deposit interest rate table, lowering the interest rates for various term deposits. The one-year, two-year, three-year, and five-year deposit rates have been reduced to 1.35%, 1.45%, 1.75%, and 1.8%, respectively. Compared to the previous interest rate standards, the one-year fixed deposit rate has been lowered by 10 basis points, while the two-year, three-year, and five-year rates have been reduced by 20 basis points each. As a result, all six major banks have bid farewell to the 2% interest rate range.

Following this trend, it is estimated that various financial products will soon fall below a 2% interest rate, and may even gradually enter the 1% era. On one hand, about 2 million non-ordinary people monopolize most of the wealth, while on the other hand, they require the already struggling middle class and the vast majority of ordinary people with little money to actively consume or bear more debt. We cannot comment too much on this topic.

However, based on this issue, it brings us some thoughts: the escalation of geopolitical tensions, global inflation not cooling down, worsening environmental pollution, general overproduction of goods, and rapid currency depreciation… there are still many uncertainties in the future. How should we better and wisely allocate our assets?

1. Commodities

Generally speaking, the price fluctuations of commodities are not correlated with traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds. Investing in commodities can reduce the overall risk of a portfolio, and rising commodity prices can help hedge against inflation risks, making it a choice for many institutions/individuals.

Specifically, in terms of investment ideas, we can look for opportunities in asymmetry.

So, what is asymmetry?

Here’s a simple example: on one hand, geopolitical friction can lead to a decrease in oil production, which in turn triggers a surge in global demand, causing prices of certain commodities to rise. On the other hand, the oversupply of soybeans may lead to further declines in the prices of products like soybean oil and soybean meal.

Therefore, in this situation, there are some asymmetrical edges for us to choose from. For example, we can consider investing in corresponding ETF products to seek long-term opportunities.

Of course, the specific investment process may involve many factors, such as the cyclicality of commodities.

2. Stocks

Since I am not very familiar with our A-shares, I won’t say much here. I will only use the U.S. stock market as an example:

When choosing stocks, you should first consider your own risk tolerance, your goals, and your time horizon, and then address the specific allocation issues.

For example, regarding the S&P 500, we still believe it is a good choice in the long run. Of course, if you consider further diversification and higher risk (which also means higher potential return opportunities), you can also pay attention to some individual stocks or other indices, such as Invesco QQQ (focused on investing in technology and high-growth stocks), MSCI SWDA (focused on all the largest companies globally), and MSCI XMMS (focused on the Asian market), etc.

As for sectors, many countries/regions around the world are seeking a "green" development path, coupled with global demographic changes, so biological and sustainable agriculture may be key areas to watch in the next decade.

3. Invest in Yourself

In reality, most people have a dream of freedom and wealth, but over 90% of them cannot achieve their dreams and freedom. The core logic here is that almost all successful dream achievers are often value creators rather than consumers. If you only have a consumer mindset in pursuing your so-called dreams, it will be very difficult to succeed.

Only when you realize how much you are worth will you truly understand how much you can earn.

If you are working a specific job, earning 5,000 a month, and most of your time and energy is numbly invested in that job (without summarizing or describing any effective methodologies), and the remaining time is spent either lying down scrolling on your phone or sitting playing games (i.e., consuming your own time), then it seems the only money you can earn is that 5,000.

However, if you can leverage your best skills to provide services to more people and use digital business (the internet) to assist this service, over time, you might earn an additional 5,000, 10,000, or even more each month on top of your current income.

The future will definitely be a fully digital world, where one person can cover a broader scope, create more value through lower costs and more flexible scalability (this process is accompanied by monetary opportunities).

Of course, everyone has their own fate and aspirations. If you have seen and heard many truths in your past life but still believe you have no skills and are unwilling to invest time and energy to learn, then just keep living and try to stay happy.

Otherwise, you need to understand the importance of investing in yourself, not missing the opportunity to digitize your skills, and maintaining patience without being impulsive. Just think about those people you see regularly who provide (share) useful or useless content and make money; do you really think you are worse than them? Do you really think your value is lower than theirs?

This paragraph may seem a bit like motivational talk, but it is my genuine thought. Of course, this is just a basic idea and thought; what you can specifically do depends on your own situation and skills. For example, I personally pay attention to the crypto field, invest in this area, and I also enjoy writing in my spare time, so I created a content platform called "Talking About Li and Beyond." So far, I have unknowingly persisted for over two years and have also published two e-books based on "Talking About Li and Beyond": "Blockchain Thinking Advancement" and "Blockchain Methodology."

4. Cash Flow

Regardless of whether you are investing in commodities, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, or any other form of investment (such as saving money in the bank for interest, buying houses, insurance, trusts, bonds, precious metals, or engaging in physical businesses, etc.), another core point of asset management is not to let your liquidity dry up. Simply put, you should not recklessly gamble all your money; you need to keep some cash on hand. Because any investment is cyclical, having flexible cash flow during market adjustments or bear markets will give you the opportunity to capture more possibilities and opportunities.

Moreover, while diversifying investments, do not spread yourself too thin. After all, everyone’s time and energy are limited; you cannot pay attention to all fields at the same time. Similarly, you cannot research multiple fields (including multiple tracks within the same field) simultaneously. You just need to focus on those industries that are best for you to make money (utilizing your existing skills), continue to delve into them, and ensure you can stay ahead of most ordinary people.

On the other hand, investments should be separated from real life. You need to leave enough cash for yourself (or your family) to deal with unknown situations, just like the unpredictability of short-term markets; you can never predict what will happen in the future.

In summary, in the current environment, as ordinary individuals, what we can do is wisely allocate our assets (reasonable position management and investment strategies), quietly do our best in everything (digitize our skills), and then live healthily and peacefully.

5. The Crypto Field

In the investment aspects mentioned above, we only talked about commodities and stocks. Why didn’t we mention cryptocurrencies?

First of all, we have shared topics and knowledge about the crypto field in nearly 500 articles, so whether we are optimistic about this field is naturally self-evident to us. If you have read all the previous articles on "Talking About Li and Beyond," you will naturally know what I am saying and what I want to convey; otherwise, no matter how much I say here, it will be futile and meaningless to you.

Secondly, due to regulatory issues, the crypto field is currently facing many problems and various risks, and even in some countries, there are questions about its legality. Therefore, I do not recommend you to rashly enter this field for investment without knowing anything.

For many newcomers, the crypto field seems to equal trading coins, but in fact, apart from trading coins, you can discover many profitable ideas and methods in this field, which require you to slowly understand and explore. Moreover, there are currently many crypto-related media/self-media and various on-chain data tools to assist you in researching this field.

In the past couple of days, the hottest topic has been the Bitcoin conference, which has attracted attention for inviting ten political guests from the U.S., including Trump, of whom eight are Republicans, one is a Democrat, and one is an independent. Today (at 3 a.m. Beijing time on the 28th), Trump also gave a speech at the Bitcoin conference, and the complete content of his speech can now be found online. Interested friends can search for it on Google. As shown in the image below.

In the previous article on "Talking About Li and Beyond" (July 26), we mainly summarized the top 20 tools for playing with MemeCoin. Then a friend commented: Is there really no other track worth paying attention to besides MemeCoin?

Regarding this question, I can say that there are indeed other tracks worth noting. In previous articles on "Talking About Li and Beyond," we have already summarized many related topics, but if we are talking about short-term speculative opportunities, MemeCoin is certainly at the forefront. However, if we broaden our perspective to the medium and long term, there are definitely opportunities in other tracks (and some projects under those tracks).

I remember in an article summarizing tracks from last year (February 17, 2023), we outlined 23 narratives worth paying attention to in the next two years (2024-2025), as shown in the image below.

At that time, many new concepts had not yet emerged (such as the later BRC20, etc.). In the past year and a half, we have officially welcomed a new bull market, and the market sentiment and macro environment have undergone many changes. In the next six months to a year, macroeconomic factors and institutional adoption will play a crucial role in shaping the narrative around cryptocurrencies.

For example, in terms of macroeconomics: after two consecutive years of record high interest rates, the probability of the first rate cut in September this year is increasingly high based on various data and indicators. At the same time, the U.S. presidential election in November this year is also believed by many to have a significant impact on the crypto market.

In terms of institutional adoption: following the approval of the spot BTC ETF (mainly referring to the U.S., while the ETF in Hong Kong currently has little impact), this month (July), the SEC approved the listing of several spot ETH ETFs, further laying the foundation for the development of ETFs. With the continuous entry of institutions, we may soon see some institutions exploring DeFi, infrastructure, AI, and consumer applications in the crypto field more deeply. At that time, as ordinary retail investors, we may also need to make some new changes or optimizations in our investment methods and strategies.

In this issue, let’s combine the current situation and briefly outline the ten narratives worth paying attention to in the coming years (2024-2025) (the following rankings are not in any particular order):

The first is RWA (Real-world Assets)

In the article from last February (2023), we made a simple prediction based on the development of MakerDAO, anticipating that the RWA field might experience a surge.

In recent times, due to the support from institutions like BlackRock, many RWA projects have seen good development. Although the market may officially welcome a rate cut for the dollar this year, the expectation of a rate cut already exists. We anticipate that even if a rate cut occurs (and it will be gradual), there will not be significant changes in the short term, so some risk-weighted assets will continue to benefit from relatively high interest rates.

Therefore, in this overall context, the RWA field may still maintain good development, such as tokenization projects like Ondo and Maker, lending projects like Maple, as well as infrastructure projects related to RWA (like Chainlink, Pyth, etc.) and interoperability projects (like LayerZero, Wormhole, etc.) that can be appropriately monitored.

The second is GameFi

In the last bull market, the explosive growth of Axie Infinity drove the overall rise of GameFi. However, for a long time, the enthusiasm for GameFi seems not to have experienced the explosive collective growth we anticipated. Recently, some games on TON have been quite popular in the Web3 Games space. Although I haven’t followed them closely, it seems many friends are trying various Telegram mini-games.

Although I am not a gaming enthusiast and do not play any games (mainly due to a lack of time and energy), I can still feel that Web3 Games seem to be emerging in various forms. Some games have become popular due to the shift from Play to Earn (earning while playing) to Tap to Earn (earn by clicking). For example, a representative project in T2E, Notcoin, allows players to earn tokens through simple click operations, while also adding social sharing and invitation rewards to enhance user engagement and dissemination speed, making it suitable for playing during fragmented time.

Additionally, there are projects that look good in terms of game design, such as Parallel, Pixels, SHRAPNEL, and Pirate Nation, which can also be monitored.

In summary, simple gameplay, sustainable in-game economies, and fully on-chain games will be the next significant leap for Web3 Games. Moreover, in the future, we should see diversified X to Earn models or expansions, not limited to Play to Earn, Tap to Earn, Move to Earn, etc. With the development of blockchain technology, blockchain games will certainly integrate more emerging technologies, such as virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and artificial intelligence (AI), to provide a more immersive and intelligent gaming experience.

Gaming is a vast market, and the Web3 gaming industry has a promising future.

…… This article is not finished yet; we will supplement and update the remaining content through "Talking About Li and Beyond."

We will stop here for this issue, which is also the 492nd article updated by "Talking About Li and Beyond."