Trump has launched NFTs again. Could this become a new investment opportunity?

Trump Releases NFT Again: How Does Celebrity Effect Influence the Crypto Market?

On July 17, four days after the Trump shooting incident, he announced two shocking pieces of news that shook the crypto market. First, he announced that he had chosen Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, a supporter of Bitcoin, as his running mate for the 2024 presidential election. Second, he plans to launch his fourth NFT series.

Previously, Trump had released three series of Trump Digital Trading Cards. At a Mar-a-Lago dinner in May this year, Trump expressed great satisfaction with the performance of the first three NFT series and revealed plans to continue launching new series. On the 17th, a Bloomberg interview confirmed this plan, and the fourth NFT series was officially put on the agenda. Following the announcement, the floor price of Trump Digital Trading Cards skyrocketed from 410 MATIC to over 900 MATIC, with an instant increase of nearly 120%, before retreating and stabilizing around 750 MATIC. At the same time, the meme coin MAGA ($TRUMP), associated with Trump, rose from $7.5 to $8.5.

It is noteworthy that during the NFT dinner hosted by Trump, this series of NFTs had already experienced a 120% increase. The rapid surge again within just two months, especially in the current overall sluggish NFT market where the floor prices of major projects have dropped by more than 50%, makes this price performance particularly remarkable. People can't help but wonder if the Trump concept is truly the next wealth code.

The First Wave of Trailblazers

On December 16, 2022, Trump released his first series of NFTs—Trump Digital Trading Cards. This series was created by NFT International LLC and consists of 45,000 NFTs on the Polygon blockchain, showcasing Trump in various personas such as a superhero, race car driver, astronaut, and Western sheriff.

Two days before the release of this NFT series, Trump posted a video on his social platform Truth Social, hinting at a significant event about to occur. The NFT sale indeed lived up to the name of a "major announcement." According to Opensea data, all 45,000 NFT cards priced at $99 sold out within 18 hours, with the number of minting addresses reaching 12,874, and total sales amounting to approximately $4.356 million, quickly topping OpenSea's trending list. It is worth noting that not long ago, during his presidency, Trump criticized on Twitter that "the value of crypto is as thin as air." However, after his failure to win re-election, he became "crypto-friendly" and even released his own NFTs. This raised questions, with some believing he was merely putting on a show for the next election. The Trump Digital Trading Cards faced criticism as well, with some arguing that the images were crude, the expressions and poses were similar, and the accompanying activity "buy 45 NFTs to have dinner with Trump" was questioned as a scam to harvest investors.

However, it turned out that this time the skeptics seemed to be mistaken. Despite numerous doubts, many "uninformed" investors and even traditional market moguls rushed in. According to Dune data, a total of 177 people held at least 45 NFTs. In terms of price performance, the floor price surged over 700% within just three days of launch, with some rare NFTs even being speculated to 10,000 ETH (approximately $40 million), allowing these buyers to reap substantial profits and become the first wave of trailblazers. This demonstrates the powerful allure and immense potential of the celebrity effect in the NFT space, inevitably attracting numerous investors. In March 2023, the floor price of the first series of NFTs surged again, reaching nearly $1,700. The cause was his indictment in the Manhattan District Attorney's investigation, accused of paying hush money to Stormy Daniels using 2016 campaign funds. The fallout from the incident further boosted the value of the NFTs, showing the crypto market's high attention to Trump-related assets.

Fluctuations of the Second and Third Waves

On April 18, 2023, Trump released his second series of NFTs—Trump Digital Trading Cards Series 2. Although this series totaled 47,000 cards, priced still at $99 each, and sold out within five hours, its market performance was not as outstanding as expected. With the release of the second series, the value of the first series quickly declined. As of now, the floor price of the second series is about 140 MATIC, far below the peak of the first series.

On December 23 of the same year, Trump released the third series of NFTs. Also minted on Polygon, priced at $99 each. Notably, this series totaled 100,000 cards, including 47 portraits of Trump, especially his image after being arrested, thus named "The MugShot Edition." The performance of the third series has been relatively stable, with the floor price reaching 324 MATIC as of the writing of this article. Despite the continuous decline in MATIC's price over the past six months, reducing the value of the NFTs, holders still achieved over 200% returns. The additional benefits of the third series of NFTs also contribute to its appeal. In May of this year, NFT holders were invited to a special dinner, with VIP entry tickets coming from the MugShot Edition. If buyers were willing to spend about $10,000 to purchase 100 MugShot Edition NFT cards, they could not only attend a VIP cocktail reception before the dinner but also receive a unique Ordinal digital trading card limited to 200 copies. Additionally, buyers would receive two VIP dinner tickets, allowing them to bring a friend to dine with Trump and be seated at the VIP table.

At this dinner, Trump reviewed the performance of the first three NFT series and clearly stated that he had ended his "hostility" towards cryptocurrencies, even mocking President Biden for not understanding crypto, saying, "If you support cryptocurrencies, you better vote for Trump." This statement further solidified Trump's support within the crypto community.

Overall, Trump's three series of NFTs have been successful in terms of both value growth and trading volume. Regardless of which series of NFTs you hold, you can achieve at least 1.5 times the issuance price in returns. Although details about the fourth series (such as the exact number of cards and pricing for each card) are still unknown, the market has high expectations for it. If the fourth series of Trump NFTs is released, we may witness another price myth.

Trump's NFT project not only demonstrates the powerful allure of celebrity effect in the crypto market but also showcases the immense potential of the NFT market. Although the performance of each series varies, the overall return rate has still attracted a large number of investors. In the future, with the release of the fourth series, the market may once again usher in a wave of investment frenzy, potentially bringing the next spring to the beleaguered NFT market. For investors, this is undoubtedly an opportunity worth paying attention to.

Not Just NFTs

The Trump-themed meme coins have also performed remarkably in the crypto market. As the election competition intensifies, Trump-related meme coins have approached madness. The shooting incident brought instant increases of 87% and 53% for Doland Tremp ($TREMP) and MAGA ($TRUMP), respectively. On the 21st, with Biden announcing his withdrawal from the Democratic presidential candidate position, a dark-themed Trump meme coin named Dark MAGA ($DMAGA) surged nearly a hundredfold, with a market cap approaching $83 million. As the topic of the assassination attempt continues to heat up, various Trump-related meme coins have emerged like mushrooms after rain. It is conservatively estimated that there are hundreds of related meme coins, including $MAGA, $DJT, $TRUMP, $EAR, and $FREE. Behind this almost frenzied phenomenon, we must ponder: what has led to the current situation?

What Should We Expect?

It is undeniable that the existence of these meme coins has allowed the "fragmented" bull market to catch its breath to some extent. However, is a bull market that barely survives on political events truly healthy? When the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved at the beginning of the year, the market shouted for the arrival of a raging bull market, but the reality was otherwise. Several rounds of pump and dump operations have left investors in distress, with spot players deeply trapped and contract players nearing bankruptcy.

Compared to the bull markets brought about by the ICO craze, the rise of public chains, DeFi Summer, and NFT explosion a few years ago, this year's "bull market" seems to lack sufficient new narratives for support. The market's attention has inevitably turned to "costless" meme coins and near-freezing NFTs. I want to say that while we can look forward to them, it is best not to have too many expectations.

The current performance of the crypto market reflects a short-sighted mentality. In the absence of substantial technological innovation and application landing, the market relies more on short-term hot topics and celebrity effects to maintain its heat. This phenomenon deserves reflection. A healthy market requires stable innovation and long-term confidence, rather than repeated speculation and fleeting trends.

In Conclusion

Trump's NFT series and related meme coins have stirred quite a wave in the crypto market, but this is not the entirety of the market. We should recognize the deeper issues behind these phenomena and seek the true forces that can drive healthy market development. The future crypto market needs not just short-term hot topics but long-term innovation and steady growth. Investors should also be more rational, avoiding blind speculation and focusing on projects with genuine long-term value.

References

1. https://www.panewslab.com/zh/sqarticledetails/qz85jkpo.html

2. https://www.blockhead.co/2024/07/17/is-donald-trumps-4th-nft-collection-doomed-to-fail/#google_vignette

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