After the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF, various opinions on the short- and medium-term price trends of the currency have emerged

Editor: Wu Says Blockchain

On July 22, the U.S. SEC officially approved the S-1 applications of multiple ETF issuers, and the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading, starting at 9:30 AM Eastern Time on July 23.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the trading volume of the spot ETH ETF group reached $112 million within the first 15 minutes of trading, which is a significant volume compared to the issuance of ordinary ETFs, but only half of the first-day trading volume of the BTC ETF group (excluding GBTC). Nevertheless, it still exceeded expectations. In the first 15 minutes, Grayscale ETHE had a trading volume of $39.7 million, Bitwise ETHW had $25.5 million, BlackRock ETHA had $22.5 million, and Fidelity FETH had $15.2 million in trading volume, among others.

Large market maker Wintermute expects that the Ethereum ETF could attract up to $4 billion in inflows from investors over the next year. This is below the expectations of most analysts, who anticipate inflows of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion, which is about 62% less than the $17 billion raised by the Bitcoin ETF since it began trading in the U.S. six months ago. Wintermute does expect that, driven by these inflows, the price of Ether will rise by 24% over the next 12 months.

Daniel Yan, founder of Kryptanium Capital and co-founder of Matrixport, tweeted about the ETH ETF: "I still hold the contrarian view that ETH/BTC will actually go lower rather than higher in the coming weeks." Reasons include: people will buy on rumors and sell when the facts are revealed; net flows could be negative. He expects ETH/BTC to drop below 0.05 and stabilize between 0.0475 and 0.05.

U.S. regulators rejected issuers' requests to allow the Ethereum ETF to stake the cryptocurrencies they hold. Wintermute stated in its report: "This loss reduces the competitiveness of the ETH ETF compared to direct holdings, as investors can still benefit from staking."

Will Cai, head of indices at Kaiko, stated in a report: "At the end of last year, the U.S. launched a futures-based ETH ETF, but demand was not ideal. Everyone's focus is on the launch of the spot ETF, with high hopes for rapid asset accumulation. Regardless of the long-term trend, the price of Ether may be 'sensitive' to the inflow amounts in the first few days of trading." Implied volatility shows a lack of confidence in the launch of the ETH ETF.

Citibank's report states that the net inflow for the Ethereum spot ETF could be equivalent to 30%-35% of the Bitcoin ETF, meaning that the potential net inflow for the Ethereum ETF over six months could reach $4.7 billion to $5.4 billion. However, due to the lack of staking and Bitcoin's first-mover advantage, the capital flow may be insufficient.

Grayscale stated that if the Ethereum (spot) ETF is approved, nearly a quarter (25%) of potential (U.S.) voters would be more interested in investing in Ethereum.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF could attract $15 billion in net inflows within the first 18 months of its listing. He expects investors to allocate roughly according to the market capitalization of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs ($1.2 trillion and $405 billion), providing about 75% weight to the spot Bitcoin ETF and about 25% weight to the Ethereum ETF. Currently, assets managed through the spot Bitcoin ETF exceed $50 billion, and Hougan expects this figure to reach at least $100 billion by the end of 2025.

Crypto analytics firm K33 Research estimates that the upcoming spot ETH ETF in the U.S. could see inflows of $3 billion to $4.8 billion in the first five months, which, based on current prices, would correspond to 800,000 to 1.26 million ETH being accumulated in the ETF, approximately 0.7%-1.05% of the total token supply. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde stated that this supply absorption shock should lead to an increase in ETH prices. Additionally, K33 believes that the omission of staking will not negatively impact the ETF's inflows. Previously, JPMorgan predicted an inflow of $3 billion for the ETH ETF this year and believed that the omission of staking would affect inflows.

According to a Bernstein report, the total market cap for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is expected to grow to $450 billion, indicating that over $100 billion will flow into crypto ETFs in the next two years. The brokerage previously predicted a peak Bitcoin cycle price of $150,000 in 2025, with a year-end target price of $90,000. Furthermore, the report states that Ethereum is the first PoS token approved as a spot ETF, which has a positive impact on other blockchain tokens, with Solana (SOL) likely to benefit.

Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra estimate that the approval of the spot Ethereum ETF will drive the price of Ethereum up by 75% to $6,600. They noted that the SEC approved a similar Bitcoin product in January, which stimulated a 75% increase in Bitcoin prices over the following weeks, and they expect a similar price movement for ETH. However, Kaiko analyst Adam McCarthy believes that demand for the Hong Kong ETH ETF is low and has already experienced several days of net outflows. The lack of staking is also a significant factor and may further impact demand.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated that crypto ETFs for SOL, XRP, and others may be approved in 2025. He believes that the approval of the ETH ETF means that ETH and similar cryptocurrencies will not be classified as securities. Additionally, it is expected that the ETH ETF could bring in $15 billion to $45 billion in inflows within the first 12 months. Kendrick also predicts that the ETF will push ETH to the $8,000 level by the end of 2024.

Noelle Acheson, former head of market insights at Genesis Global Trading, stated that multiple indicators show institutional interest in the Ethereum ETF is far lower than that for Bitcoin. Bloomberg Industry Research ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects the Ethereum ETF to account for "10-15% of Bitcoin ETF assets." Currently, the ETH futures ETF only has 4% of the BTC futures ETF. As for the spot Ethereum ETF itself, existing data also indicates a potential lack of institutional interest.

Earlier on the Wu Says podcast, lawyer Winter Soldier believed that once the Bitcoin ETF is approved, the Ethereum ETF will eventually be approved as well. The approval of the spot ETF requires meeting two important conditions: a mature futures trading market and stability between spot and futures prices. This is also why the Ethereum spot ETF was able to pass smoothly after the Bitcoin ETF was approved. If Bitcoin can reach $100,000 in the future, then it is also possible for Ethereum's price to reach $6,000-$8,000. This prediction is relatively conservative, and the actual situation will also depend on macroeconomic trends. The likelihood of a Solana spot ETF being approved is low due to the lack of a futures ETF and insufficient decentralization.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated in an interview that demand for the spot Ethereum ETF could reach 20% to 25% of the demand for the spot Bitcoin ETF. James Seyffart pointed out that this prediction is based on the Ethereum market size being about 30% of Bitcoin's. Limiting factors for the Ethereum ETF include the inability to stake and the lack of on-chain utility. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicts "huge demand" for the spot Ethereum ETF, with demand coming from diversified investments and interest in high-growth technology investments.

Cobo and F2pool co-founder Shen Yu stated that in the early stages of the ETH ETF listing, the main inflows are likely to come from retail investors, accounting for 80-90% of total funds, with institutional participation being relatively low; institutional investors may gradually enter the market after December.