Guidelines for Cryptocurrency Policy in the Next Four Years: Key Highlights from Trump's 2024 Bitcoin Conference Speech
Due to the high probability of Trump becoming the next President of the United States, the market generally believes that he will reveal more detailed policy guidance on cryptocurrency in this speech. Therefore, I have conducted some research and summarized the background of the Bitcoin conference, as well as the core concerns of the market regarding Trump's speech, to share with everyone.Author: ++@Web3Mario++ (https://x.com/web3_mario)
Abstract: During this time, I am designing and developing a very interesting social fission-related TON mini app, so updates are a bit slow, and I hope everyone can understand. However, I will still keep an eye on current events. I believe there is a very important and guiding event this Saturday that deserves attention: Trump will be giving a public speech at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference. Since Trump has a high probability of becoming the next President of the United States, the market generally believes that he will reveal more detailed policy guidance regarding cryptocurrency during this speech. Therefore, I have conducted some research and summaries on the background of the Bitcoin Conference and the core concerns of the market regarding Trump's speech to share with everyone.
What is the Bitcoin Conference?
For newcomers to the space, the Bitcoin Conference may seem unfamiliar and puzzling, as Bitcoin is an open-source protocol without a commercial entity responsible for it. The name "Bitcoin Conference" sounds like an official meeting, but who is responsible for planning and hosting it? Therefore, let's first introduce the background of the Bitcoin Conference.
The Bitcoin Conference that Trump will attend refers to the annual conference organized by Bitcoin Magazine about the development of Bitcoin and related technologies and applications. In previous years, there have been some conferences with the same name, but the organizers were different. This is also because the Bitcoin protocol does not belong to any commercial entity but is shared by the open-source community, so the naming of the conference is relatively flexible.
The earliest conference named the Bitcoin Conference dates back to 2013, organized by the Bitcoin Foundation, a non-profit organization aimed at promoting the Bitcoin protocol. Subsequently, some commercial entities hosted conferences with the same name, but their influence was not significant. It wasn't until 2019 that BTC Inc., the company behind Bitcoin Magazine, began hosting the annual Bitcoin Conference, leading to a qualitative improvement in the conference's specifications, the influence of guest speakers, and the scale of attendees, gradually gaining recognition in the crypto community. Therefore, in the current context, "Bitcoin Conference" usually refers to the annual conference hosted by BTC Inc. since 2019.
You may be unfamiliar with BTC Inc., but most people have heard of Bitcoin Magazine, which is one of the earliest and most influential sources of Bitcoin news and information, focusing on Bitcoin and the blockchain technology behind it and related industries. The magazine was co-founded in 2012 by Vitalik Buterin and Mihai Alisie. In the early days, Vitalik claimed to spend 10 to 20 hours a week writing articles, while Alisie handled editing work in Romania. BTC Inc. acquired Bitcoin Magazine in early 2015, becoming its actual owner and operator.
BTC Inc. was established in 2014 and is based in Nashville, Tennessee, USA. It focuses on media and technology solutions for blockchain and cryptocurrency. Its business includes publications, conferences, and technology platforms aimed at promoting the development and adoption of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. In addition to Bitcoin Magazine, its subsidiary BTC Media is also a highly influential media platform in the industry. Its founder, David Bailey, is a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry. As one of the early cryptocurrency evangelists, he has made significant contributions to the industry's development.
Returning to the Bitcoin Conference, since it has been hosted by BTC Inc. since 2019, what highlights have there been? Here’s a brief overview:
- Bitcoin 2019 (San Francisco)
- Date: June 2019
- Highlights: Focused on discussing technical improvements and scalability issues of Bitcoin. The conference also addressed regulatory issues and future development directions for Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin 2021 (Miami)
- Date: June 2021
- Highlights: This was the largest conference to date, attracting over 12,000 attendees. Speakers included Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor. Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced plans to make Bitcoin legal tender via video speech.
- Bitcoin 2022 (Miami)
- Date: April 2022
- Highlights: Over 35,000 attendees and more than 450 speakers, including well-known investors and thought leaders like Peter Thiel, Jordan Peterson, and Serena Williams. The conference also included the Bitcoin Music Festival, showcasing Bitcoin's impact on art and culture.
- Bitcoin 2023 (Miami)
- Date: May 2023
- Highlights: The conference continued to explore Bitcoin's technological and market developments, including decentralized finance (DeFi) and global adoption strategies. Attendees included leaders and innovators in the cryptocurrency space.
The upcoming 2024 Bitcoin Conference will be held in Nashville, Tennessee, and compared to previous conferences, the political aspect is more pronounced, especially with Trump's speech. Therefore, it is widely believed that there will be a lot of guiding information regarding future U.S. crypto policies, which is a key focus. So what specific points should we pay attention to? I have some thoughts to share.
Trump May Announce More Favorable Bitcoin Policy Guidance at This Conference
The current market seems to have broken free from the downturn caused by the German government's sell-off in early July and has become restless again. The reason lies in the fact that U.S. presidential candidate Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13, solidifying his "American sheriff" tough-guy image and giving him a significant advantage in the upcoming November elections. With Biden's withdrawal and the new Democratic candidate Harris clearly lacking momentum, the market is already beginning to digest the information that Trump may become the next President of the United States.
Considering Trump's political stance, his economic policies can be summarized in the following three dimensions:
- Low taxes domestically, high tariffs externally;
- Reducing the dollar's exchange rate against major manufacturing countries through means such as interest rate cuts;
- Opposing the new energy industry and advocating for the traditional energy sector;
This is closely related to the interest groups he represents—the blue-collar class in the Rust Belt. While isolationism and trade protection policies have a clear effect on suppressing foreign products and boosting U.S. domestic low-end manufacturing, implementing these policies will take time and will be accompanied by high inflation pressures. Even Trump needs to consider how to use dollar hegemony to alleviate these symptoms to some extent. Some signs indicate that he may choose to achieve this goal through Bitcoin, which is why my primary focus is on this aspect.
Why do I say this? First, Trump has repeatedly expressed concerns about "American Bitcoin production capacity," such as advocating for the remaining Bitcoin to be produced in the U.S. Given his clear preference for traditional energy industries related to oil, stimulating Bitcoin mining—an energy-consuming industry—would be beneficial for boosting oil demand and increasing industrial added value. Secondly, Trump's view on Bitcoin has noticeably shifted compared to his previous term; he has moved from not recognizing Bitcoin's value to acknowledging its value as a commodity. The logic behind this is still related to the dollar's pricing power advantage. Since the current liquidity of Bitcoin is primarily maintained by stablecoins pegged to the dollar, the dollar effectively holds the pricing power over Bitcoin. By recognizing it as a commodity and vigorously promoting this consensus globally, it will be advantageous for dollar capital to establish dominance in this field, thus creating a harvesting effect.
In addition, on another point of focus, my view differs somewhat from the market; I believe Trump will have a cautious attitude towards cryptocurrencies related to security tokens. The reason lies in the guidance of social resources. We know that a recent market hotspot is the ETH ETF, which has sparked optimistic expectations for the large-scale launch of other crypto asset ETFs, such as SOL. However, I believe that compared to Bitcoin's commodity attributes, such crypto assets are more akin to shares that can yield dividends, and we know that the symbolic significance of passing an ETF is much greater. This represents an official shift in attitude towards the industry, and the most significant impact of this shift is the guiding effect on industrial capital. This attitude may lead to resource competition between the crypto industry and traditional industries. Considering that the former belongs to the virtual economy, high-tech, and global characteristics, it is clearly more compatible with the Democratic Party, which contradicts Trump's economic policy stance. Therefore, this point still requires personal observation.
Of course, regardless of how one views it, compared to immigration policies, crypto policies are still a relatively small issue in the election. Moreover, we cannot guarantee that his current attitude will represent a consistent stance over the next four years. However, in the short term, the market has already begun to price in this optimistic expectation, so let us wait and see.
