I remain optimistic about the market in the second half of this year and even next year

Trump has chosen his running mate for the 2024 presidential election: Ohio Senator J.D. Vance.

The attitudes of these two Republican candidates towards crypto assets are particularly noteworthy in the crypto community.

I discussed Trump's attitude towards crypto assets in a previous article: perhaps due to "butt determines brain"—he himself is a beneficiary of crypto assets—his stance has undergone a 180-degree turn in recent years, shifting from opposing Bitcoin to now fully supporting crypto assets, even opening a donation channel for crypto assets.

In recent months, he has frequently met with key players in the U.S. crypto ecosystem. Notably, his remarks during a meeting with major U.S. Bitcoin miners last month left a deep impression on me:

The gist of his speech was: to ensure that the remaining Bitcoin is in the hands of Americans.

Perhaps there is some misunderstanding of the operational principles of Bitcoin; I suspect what he truly meant to express is that he hopes the remaining Bitcoin is mined by American miners, and that the U.S. maintains a dominant position in Bitcoin mining.

On one hand, this statement clearly carries a competitive tone, expressing his desire for the U.S. not to fall behind any other country in the competition within the crypto asset space; on the other hand, it clearly indicates the impact he would have on this industry if elected.

Setting aside possible misunderstandings, for an 80-year-old man to have such an understanding of an emerging technology and such an attitude towards an emerging industry is already far beyond many people in his position.

What about his running mate, Vance?

In my view, he is a solid believer in crypto assets.

According to publicly available information, 6% of his personal investments are in Bitcoin, which is a practical vote of confidence for crypto assets.

His remarks on crypto assets in 2022 were particularly interesting.

That year, the Canadian government froze the bank accounts of a group of truck drivers participating in protests in Ottawa. In response, he posted (the gist being): this is the reason for the flourishing of cryptocurrency; if your political views are wrong, the government will cut off your access to banking services.

In my opinion, this statement resonates with what X said (the gist being) "Bitcoin is the first time in human history that private property is sacred and inviolable."

It is impressive for someone who is not full-time in the crypto industry to have such an understanding of crypto assets, especially compared to many who still view crypto assets as CX.

In addition, he has made several other friendly statements and actions towards crypto assets, such as strongly criticizing the current SEC chairman for overly politicizing the regulation of crypto assets.

In short, whether from a personal interest perspective or a cognitive perspective, if these two are elected, the U.S. crypto industry will welcome profound and substantial benefits.

In recent days, after the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech, Wall Street's confidence in a possible rate cut in September has greatly increased. The U.S. stock market continues to rise.

However, during this period of increase, one phenomenon is worth noting: the gains in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are much smaller than those in the Dow Jones index.

In my view, this indicates that the benefits of a rate cut for traditional industries may far exceed those for the tech sector.

I mentioned in this online discussion that U.S. tech companies are currently primarily relying on direct financing, so the level of interest rates seems to have a less obvious impact on them. However, traditional industries likely still rely on indirect financing or bond issuance, so they are more affected by interest rates.

In fact, the rise in U.S. stocks in recent years has primarily been driven by tech stocks, while other industries have generally performed poorly.

If a rate cut significantly alleviates the pressure on other industries, perhaps in the next phase, the performance of other industries will surpass that of the tech sector, continuing to drive the U.S. stock market and, in turn, benefiting crypto assets.

In summary, all these factors lead me to believe that the crypto market will improve in the second half of this year and into next year, and tomorrow we will surely see the sunshine.