SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240715): When the Gunshots Ring Out
According to data provided by Farside Investors, traditional funds have recently been reintroduced into the cryptocurrency market through Spot ETFs. On one hand, the upcoming interest rate cuts in September provide macroeconomic support; on the other hand, according to Arkham, the German government currently has no coins to sell.
On July 13th at 6 PM local time in the United States, Trump delivered a new round of presidential campaign rally speech in Butler, Pennsylvania. At 6:11 PM, a gunman fired several shots from a high point outside the venue, injuring Trump's right ear. This incident also ignited the American people's support for Trump, causing his campaign winning probability to soar above 70%. Considering his stance as a user and supporter of digital currency (at least during this campaign), this assassination attempt indirectly supported the continuous rise in BTC prices and the overall volatility level quickly climbing from the weekend's low.
Source: TradingView; SignalPlus
However, it should be noted that Bitcoin's recent recovery is not solely attributed to him. According to data from Farside Investors, traditional funds have recently been re-injected into the digital currency market through Spot ETFs. On one hand, the upcoming interest rate cuts in September provide macroeconomic support; on the other hand, according to Arkham, the German government currently has no coins to sell. BTC's performance in holding the $50,000 support level amid strong selling pressure has also boosted investors' confidence in its price resilience, providing a preview for the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment event. From the options trading perspective, in the past 24 hours, investors have expressed positive sentiment by selling a large number of short-term put strategies (Short Put Spread, Short Put), notably BTC Short 26 JUL 62000 vs 58000 Put Spread (200 BTC per leg) and ETH Short 26 JUL 4 3300-P (3500 ETH). However, we also noticed that the number of BTC August put strategies is also considerable, as traders seized the opportunity of this price increase to buy relatively cheap put options, providing ongoing protection for bullish positions.
Source: Farside Investors; Twitter
Source: Deribit (as of 15 JUL 16:00 UTC+8)
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH trading
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC trading
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
