Matrixport Research: Summer consolidation combined with "market selling,"建议持仓 BTC options待美国大选利好兑现

Matrixport Research Institute's latest study shows that recent focus points are:

• BTC remains the best-performing asset of the year, far surpassing Nasdaq

• The U.S. presidential election continues to be a positive factor for BTC, with current data indicating a higher probability of Trump winning

• The interest rate cut may be difficult to realize this year, and BTC's volatility remains at a relatively low level

BTC remains the best-performing asset of the year, far surpassing Nasdaq

Although BTC has entered a summer consolidation phase, it is still the best-performing asset so far this year. The year-to-date return of BTC far exceeds that of Nasdaq (+22%) and S&P 500 (+16%). Given the current market conditions, many crypto participants tend to invest in tokens with high yields, holding off on entering BTC until the right moment.

The U.S. presidential election continues to be a positive factor for BTC, with current data indicating a higher probability of Trump winning

The U.S. presidential election year is typically bullish for stocks and BTC. Last year, Matrix on Target showcased a BTC simulation, analyzing BTC's average performance during the U.S. presidential elections in 2012, 2016, and 2020. In the July of the first three election years, Bitcoin's return was close to 36%. Interestingly, BTC has risen 39% so far this year, consistent with the simulated performance of election years.

The interest rate cut may be difficult to realize this year, and BTC's volatility remains at a relatively low level

In the upcoming FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the committee may express a willingness to start a rate cut cycle in September during the meeting on July 31. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may reiterate this view at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 23, and then the Fed may cut rates on September 18 or December 18. It is currently inclined to believe that the Fed may cut rates once this year in September or December; otherwise, there will be no rate cut.

The positive expectations brought by the interest rate cut may be difficult to realize this year, keeping volatility at a relatively low level. Even though there were often severe consolidations during previous bull markets, BTC has not experienced a 20% significant fluctuation in the past 30 days. The Fed has successfully avoided further declines in BTC through effective communication.

Mt.Gox tokens transferred multiple times, market panic over "sell-off" is evident

Mt.Gox has initiated the repayment process, and there have been multiple suspected transfers of tokens recently, causing market panic over potential sell-offs; at the same time, asset transfers by the German government have escalated the panic: on-chain data shows that the German government recently transferred over $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges; according to Arkham information, a U.S. government wallet address (starting with 349c6) transferred 237 BTC, worth about $13.67 million, to an address starting with bc1qvc on July 4. The "market sell-off" information compounded, leading to significant short-term fluctuations in BTC prices.

Although monetary policy and the U.S. presidential election are seen as positive factors, investing in options, holding a small amount of risk assets, while investing in government bond-related tokens to earn high returns is a prudent strategy.

The above opinions are partly derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us for the complete report from Matrix on Target.