Matrixport Research: The market has entered a summer consolidation phase, and cautious investment is the best strategy

Matrixport Research Institute's latest study shows that recent focus points are:

• ETH ETF may be approved next week, with traditional fund net inflow on the first day possibly lower than expected

• BTC's historical performance in the third quarter is weak; attention should be paid to options products

• Beyond macro data, the Biden-Trump debate is of great interest to investors

ETH ETF Limited by ETH Awareness and U.S. Public Holidays, Traditional Fund Net Inflow on First Day May Be Lower Than Expected

The SEC is likely to approve the ETH ETF in the coming days, probably early next week, after which these ETFs may launch a few days later. It is expected that the fund size of the ETH ETF will reach about 20% of the BTC ETF size. This ratio roughly corresponds to the scale of ETH futures relative to BTC futures, the scale of ETH futures-based ETFs relative to BTC futures-based ETFs, and the market capitalization ratio of ETH to BTC.

Therefore, since the BTC ETF has accumulated a net inflow of $14 billion since January 2024, it is expected that the asset management size of the ETH ETF may reach $2.8 billion within the first five months.

Most non-cryptocurrency investors may need more time to understand ETH, especially since it does not have a fixed supply, which may cause hesitation among Wall Street investors. Understanding ETH and its use cases is more complex than Bitcoin, which may also lead to initial hesitation from TradeFi investors. Finally, since July 4th is a public holiday in the U.S., many investors may be out enjoying a long weekend. If the ETH ETF launches next week, it may lead to slightly disappointing capital inflows on the first day.

BTC's Historical Price Performance in the Third Quarter is Relatively Calm; Focusing on Options Products May Be the Best Strategy

Historically, BTC has entered a typically calmer third quarter, during which the return rate for BTC over the next three months is usually only around 5%. Seasonally, the fourth quarter is typically the strongest performance season for the market, while the third quarter (July, August, September) is relatively weak, especially in August and September. However, when the market performs poorly in June (which has occurred five times in the past), the market performance in July usually improves. This June seems no exception, characterized by a negative return month for the BTC market. According to independent statistics, the average return rate for BTC in July over the past 13 years has been over 12%.

Although the average 30-day historical volatility of BTC over the past five years has been 60%, it is currently only 30%. Investors may consider using options products instead of directly facing potential market risks.

PCE Data Release Imminent; Biden-Trump Debate Captivates Investor Attention

On the evening of the 28th, the PCE data is about to be released, and if price pressures ease, it may provide grounds for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. At the same time, the market is paying close attention to the Biden-Trump debate. As of June 28 at 16:30, the probability of Trump winning the election in the prediction market has risen to 63%, showing a clear lead. The market still believes that Trump's election would have a positive impact on the crypto market.

The above views are partly derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the complete report from Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.