The Great Immortal said: 6.12 CPI is coming with the Fed's heavy impact, where should Bitcoin go?

World economic history is a soap opera based on illusions and lies. To gain wealth, the approach is to recognize the illusions, invest in them, and then exit the game before the illusions are recognized by the public. -- George Soros
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.5% during its interest rate decision meeting in early May, marking the sixth consecutive freeze in rates. Currently, the Federal Reserve is holding a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the latest interest rate decision expected to be announced tomorrow (the 13th) at 2 AM.

In addition to the interest rate decision, an important indicator of inflation, the U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, will also be released today at 20:30. It seems that hawkish and dovish officials have reached a consensus to continue observing, while the released CPI data will influence the expected number of rate cuts this year, whether it will be one, two, or none at all.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart

From the Bitcoin 4H chart, we can see that the DIF line and DEA line formed a death cross at the beginning of June, which is usually a bearish signal indicating that prices may decline further. However, with the recent price adjustment, the DIF line has begun to gradually approach the DEA line, suggesting that the market may be about to rebound. The MACD histogram currently shows green, but as the green histogram gradually shortens, the market may be preparing for a reversal.
The KDJ three-line indicator showed a low-level golden cross (the K line crossing above the D line) at the end of May and the beginning of June, which is a bullish signal, but then quickly fell back, indicating insufficient upward momentum. Currently, the K line and D line are approaching again, and the J line has slightly turned upward, suggesting a possible small rebound in the short term.
The current price is between the middle and lower bands of the 4H Bollinger Bands, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating low market volatility. Generally, after the Bollinger Bands narrow, the market may welcome a new trend. Therefore, if the price can break through the middle band and continue to rise, a new upward trend may form; conversely, if the price falls below the lower band, it may continue to decline.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart

According to the current Bitcoin 1H chart, we can see that both the DIF line and DEA line are operating below the zero axis. Although there are some signs of rebound, they are still in a weak area.
The MACD histogram shows red, and although the last few bars have contracted, indicating that bearish strength is weakening, more upward momentum is still needed to confirm a reversal.
The KDJ indicator shows that the current K line value and D line value have formed a golden cross at a low level, which usually represents a short-term buying signal. The J line value has also started to rebound from a low level, but caution is still needed regarding the risk of a pullback.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is between the middle and lower bands of the 1H Bollinger Bands, with an upward trend. The Bollinger Bands are relatively wide, indicating high volatility. After receiving support near the lower band, the price has rebounded and is now close to the middle band. If it can break through the middle band and stabilize, there is a possibility of further upward movement.
Comprehensive analysis: In the short term, Bitcoin may experience a certain rebound, but it is necessary to closely monitor changes in various indicators, especially the direction of the Bollinger Bands' opening and the crossing of the MACD lines. If the price can steadily break through the 4H Bollinger Bands middle band (68563) and the MACD line forms a golden cross, it may confirm the rebound trend; otherwise, further downward risks need to be guarded against.
In summary, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
If Bitcoin rebounds to 68500, "lightly short" with a target of 66000, stop loss at 69450. If it breaks through the 4H middle band, "increase short" at 69300 with a target of 66000, stop loss at 69700. (Key note: CPI data will be released at 20:30, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced at 2 AM.)