The 15th article of the Crypto Dog: A Deep Dive into the Feasibility of Small and Medium Market Cap Tokens on Binance, Taking pStake as an Example

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2024-06-11 09:56:54
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This article mainly uses pStake as an example to clarify what kind of projects meet the newly released "Binance Listing Project Public Recruitment Plan." After a deep understanding, everyone will be able to independently assess the market based on market information, project fundamentals, and technical aspects. You will gradually form your own investment logic and will no longer incur losses due to KOL's recommendations.

If the goal is set to 【make 500,000 in a year in the secondary market】, and you don't know what to invest in, there's no need to look around everywhere; just follow the exchange dynamics and copy trades, and you can achieve decent returns.

This article mainly uses pStake as an example to clarify what kind of projects meet the newly released "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan." After a deep understanding, everyone will be able to independently assess the market based on market information, project fundamentals, and technical aspects. You will gradually form your own investment logic and will no longer suffer losses due to KOL's calls.

This article is divided into the following three parts:

  • Part One: Beginner Stage, blindly betting based on market information (like playing baccarat)
  • Part Two: Jack-of-all-trades Stage, superficially analyzing projects based on fundamentals (after making some money from baccarat, you start studying the game, but most people stop here)
  • Part Three: Awakening and Transformation Stage, seeking more data support, continuously validating and overturning, and ultimately making decisions

Part One: Beginner Stage

In the secondary market, many people are at this stage. They like to blindly bet on any seemingly favorable information, which is also a way for beginners to make money, just like playing baccarat, where novices often have a higher win rate and can make profits.

However, beginners in baccarat may seem to know nothing, but they still have their own methods. They will place bets based on the information at the table, such as following the long dragon, betting on the banker, or counter-betting.

In the crypto space, it's the same. Beginners often make money, but many don't know how to start. In fact, money can also be made in the crypto space based on information.

1. What is the specific operational logic?

For example, the day before Binance announced the "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan," Binance Research published an article titled "Key Market Events and Team Insights This Week," which mentioned many projects. If these projects are studied carefully, some actually have a chance of being listed on Binance. https://x.com/BinanceResearch/status/1792183556438941790

2. What impact does an article have on trading?

An article does not have a significant impact on price increases. Before important announcements are made, a lot of capital has already driven the price up, which may be a signal to lure in more investors (for projects that have already been listed). If the signal to lure in investors is detected early, it’s like following a "long dragon" in baccarat, which has a certain probability of profit, and that probability is quite high, but it is only suitable for short-term trading, not long-term.

So, what is being said here is that we cannot blindly bet on long-term investments based on just one article; that would be too rash. What we need to do is to pick out the projects that research institutions have preliminarily screened and conduct our own research to see if there is profit potential. If there is an expectation of being listed on Binance, we also need to compare horizontally whether it can be listed on Binance.

🔸Here, taking the Binance Labs invested BNB Chain liquidity staking protocol @pStakeFinance as an example, let's analyze whether the token has a chance of being listed on Binance.

🩸This article only serves as a case analysis and is not investment advice. After reading the case, it’s best to run through the analysis yourself and then make your own decision.

3. Does investment from Binance Labs guarantee a listing on Binance?

First, let's clarify the relationship between Binance Labs and Binance:

🔸 Binance Labs was officially established in April 2018 and was once the venture capital department of Binance, now spun off into an independent entity.

As of March, Binance Labs has invested in approximately 250 projects. According to incomplete statistics: 40 projects have not yet issued tokens, and more than 20 projects have not yet been listed on Binance.

In terms of investment layout: Binance Labs covers a wide range of investment fields, including most tracks related to Web3, such as public chains, protocols, infrastructure, NFTs, blockchain games, metaverse, DeFi, and CeFi.

Binance Labs places particular emphasis on infrastructure, on-chain applications, data analysis, and security. These areas are not only core to the development of the cryptocurrency industry but are also prioritized investment directions for Binance Labs.

🔸**Key Takeaways: **Infrastructure, Security

4. Requirements of the "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan"

🔹 Valuation Requirements: Small to medium market cap across various tracks

🔹 Retain a large allocation of tokens for community users (airdrops, community rewards, etc.)

🔹 Appropriate circulation

🔹 Self-sustaining business model

Based on the above requirements, let's see if $pStake meets the listing criteria.

Part Two: Jack-of-all-trades Stage Information

Like many newcomers in investment banks, after going through the training period, they start looking for fundamental information everywhere, just like I did, searching for some useless information that seems busy and professional but lacks value, all superficial content.

This stage is where many beginners transition from "blindly making money" to "not making money," and it is also the stage many bloggers find themselves in.

About pStakeFinance Fundamentals

(1) Focus on Infrastructure and Security

pSTAKE Finance is a liquidity staking infrastructure invested by Binance Labs, uniquely integrated with Ceffu Global (Binance Custody) as the BNB Chain LST, offering the lowest liquidity staking fees to allow institutions and whales to enter the BNB staking market.

Currently, the market cap of $BNB is 88 billion USD, but only 0.29% of the total supply of BNB is in liquidity staking, while 11.5% of ETH is in liquidity staking.

If we infer the BSC liquidity staking situation based on the current Ethereum liquidity staking, if BSC liquidity staking increases to 11.5%, it would create a 10 billion USD market, growing 40 times under current conditions.

If a 40-fold increase can be achieved, this is what pSTAKE, BNB Chain, and Binance all hope to see. Because for PoS blockchains, higher staking can ensure network security.

Regarding the introduction of pSTAKE Finance, it has been analyzed in previous articles, so it will not be repeated here. Relevant past content:

https://link.medium.com/Xk8dXgSjZJb

(2) pSTAKE Token Information

🔹 $pSTAKE currently has an FDV of 41 million, meeting the small to medium market cap requirement.

🔹 Total Token Supply: 500,000,000

🔹 Circulation: 468,888,892

🔹 Circulation Rate: 93.78%

🔹 FDV: 41,696,389

🔹 MC: 39,101,947

(3) Token Distribution

From the perspective of token holdings, 80% of the tokens are held by project smart contracts and large holders, with the top 20 addresses holding a total of 413 million PSTAKE, accounting for 82.65% of the total supply.

The concentration of tokens in the hands of investment institutions and project parties indicates that accumulation is basically complete, waiting for favorable information to be released.

Many readers may feel that the article ends here, which would be too superficial. Indeed, many bloggers conclude their analysis after discussing fundamentals and holding structures.

But here, we will continue to look deeper.

Part Three: Awakening and Transformation Stage

At this point in the article, players are generally trying to change.

Many people do not reach this stage because it requires information gathering and data analysis, continuous validation, and overturning before deciding whether to enter the market.

This process is very painful and lonely. Sometimes after researching for several days, you find that the project you studied is not suitable for entry, while a random meme coin you saw in the market has skyrocketed. After experiencing such scenarios a few times, you may give up on deep analysis.

This article mainly uses pStake as an example, attempting to help everyone analyze whether the project meets the requirements for being listed on Binance through in-depth data, and then decide whether to invest.

The specific content is as follows:

1. What Binance is looking for: Small to Medium Market Cap Projects --- Data Analysis

The "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan" states that they are looking for small to medium market cap projects across various tracks, so let's take a look at the characteristics of small to medium market caps and which projects in the track have already issued tokens.

(1) Characteristics of Market Cap Stages and Possible Strategies

From the above chart, we can see:

  • Medium Market Cap Range: Between 50 million and 100 million USD. Projects in this range are relatively stable and have achieved initial success. Project construction is relatively complete, liquidity is strong, and a strong community has formed.
  • Small Market Cap Range: Between 10 million and 50 million USD. Market resilience has gradually formed, construction is relatively mature, liquidity is slowly being established, and the community is gradually developing. However, continuous development is still needed to increase community attractiveness and seek breakthrough opportunities.

(2) Comparison of Market Caps of Projects That Have Issued Tokens in the Track

According to RootData, there are a total of 155 projects in the LSD track, with 41 projects having issued tokens, resulting in a token issuance rate of 26.45%. Most projects are still under development.

Using RootData's X Influence Index list, the top 33 projects are included as sample analysis.

Among them, there are 6 small to medium projects with FDV between 30 million and 80 million, and only StaFi has been listed on Binance.

Looking at FDV alone does not indicate much; it may only reflect VC's self-indulgence and may only serve as a ranking within the track.

For retail investors in the secondary market, we pay more attention to MC. After reordering the data table, it becomes easier to see which are small market cap projects and which are medium market cap projects:

  • Numbers 9, 12, and 13 are medium projects, with only StaFi listed on Binance, belonging to the early ETH LSD leaders;
  • Numbers 15, 8, 10, 14, and 16 are in the small project range, with none listed on Binance. However, it can be seen that pStake's MC:FDV is already very close to 1, making it the only project in the statistics that is invested by Binance Labs and has an MC:FDV value closest to 1 (this is key).

pStake is the only project among the 155 LSDs that has announced itself as the BNB Chain Liquidity Staking Infrastructure, and its extremely low fees make pStake an unavoidable liquidity staking protocol for users on the BNB Chain.

Extension: Reasons Investors Refer to MC:FDV Values

  • Currently, investors are cautious about low MC and high FDV projects. A high FDV and a low MC indicate low market demand, with tokens concentrated in the hands of a few, and also indicate that a large number of tokens have not yet circulated. People believe that token prices will continue to fall, so they refuse to be the bag holders.
  • The market prefers tokens with an MC:FDV value of 1 or close to 1, such as $not, which was listed on Binance on the 17th of this month. After the token was airdropped and dumped within 5 days of listing, its price has been on the rise, increasing by 70% in a week.

It should be noted that tokens with a 1:1 ratio may experience short-term price increases, but without widespread adoption and sustained new purchasing interest from users, their prices often fall.

(3) Evaluating Projects Based on Assets Locked in the Protocol

Using the market cap to TVL ratio, we can gain insights into how the market values projects based on the assets locked in the protocol.

  • Among projects with a market cap below 50 million, the highest ratio is Tenet Protocol, while the lowest is Marinade, with pSTAKE Finance being moderate.

This metric is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio in traditional stock markets; the higher the market cap relative to TVL, the more expensive the price.

In simple terms:

  • A high ratio may indicate that the asset is overvalued;
  • A lower ratio may indicate that the asset is undervalued and not favored by investors compared to assets in the same track.

If we look at the candlestick chart, we can also see that the token's trend aligns with the evaluation in the above chart. This indicates that when we look at projects, we need to make horizontal comparisons.

In the small market cap category, pSTAKE Finance's market cap to TVL ratio is moderate, and the token's trend is relatively stable, meeting community expectations. What pSTAKE Finance needs to do is implement incentive policies to empower TVL.

2. What Binance is looking for: Small to Medium Market Cap Projects --- Fundamental Analysis

Through the above data analysis, we can discover potential projects within the track in the secondary market. However, no matter how good the data is, Binance sometimes does not list the token.

Taking pSTAKE Finance as an example, let's return to the "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan" to see if there are projects that meet the requirements outlined in Binance's announcement.

(1) Valuation

There are many ways to calculate valuation, and various data platforms will publish relevant data for everyone to calculate valuations. However, many experienced traders use other methods, such as:

  • NVT ratio, which assesses the relationship between market cap and trading volume. A higher NVT indicates that the network may be overvalued relative to trading volume; a lower NVT indicates that the network may be undervalued. pSTAKE Finance's 24-hour NVT value is 30.26, Stride's 24-hour NVT value is 1326, and Lido's 24-hour NVT value is 1.28. pSTAKE Finance is considered neither overvalued nor undervalued, indicating a relatively stable market.
  • Market cap to TVL ratio, as mentioned above, can provide insights into how the market values projects based on the assets locked in the protocol. The ratio for pSTAKE Finance is 5.11, which is moderate, and the project needs to empower TVL to ensure users widely accept its BNB Chain liquidity protocol positioning.

pSTAKE Finance has a circulating market cap of 37 million (as of May 30) and a fully diluted market cap of 40 million, placing it in the small market cap range.

There are four companies doing BNB liquidity staking: Ankr, Stader, Stafi, and pSTAKE.

  • Ankr's tokens have all been released, and the reward period has passed;
  • Stafi has released relatively few tokens, and there is not much official news, so we will see how the project team operates in the future;
  • Stader is currently operating normally, and we will observe the project team's operations;
  • pSTAKE's tokens have currently released 93.78% (as of May 30), and pSTAKE is a project invested by Binance Labs, closely collaborating with BNB Chain, making it worth following.

(2) Token Economics

This article only discusses publicly available information, which is the basic information accessible to the general public, making it a straightforward way to evaluate projects.

The "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan" has three requirements regarding token economics:

  • Retain a large allocation of tokens for community users (airdrops, community rewards, etc.)
  • Appropriate secondary market circulation during TGE
  • Reduce allocations to non-community users

pSTAKE Finance's MC:FDV value reaches 0.94, very close to 1, indicating that the tokens have basically been fully released.

Tokens with a ratio of 1 may experience short-term price increases, but without widespread liquidity and sustained user purchasing interest, their prices often fall.

Recently, pSTAKE Finance has launched a new airdrop campaign, with 20 million tokens (worth $1,606,779) being airdropped to users.

Summary: The above fundamentals meet the requirements of the "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan" regarding token economics.

(3) Business and Product

The "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan" has three requirements regarding project business and products:

  • Good product-market fit
  • Self-sustaining business model
  • Priority for technical innovation and design innovators

pSTAKE Finance focuses on POS chain infrastructure, which is a key aspect that any POS chain cannot avoid, indicating a high product-market fit;

pSTAKE Finance is seeking more quality asset collaborations and has opened staking functions for $ATOM, $OSMO, $DYDX, $STARS, $BNB, $ETH, etc. However, the high-quality asset Sol has not been opened, which is not the style of its parent company Persistence, suggesting that the project team may have already deployed it and is just waiting for an official announcement.

When staking on the pSTAKE Finance platform, the system will charge fees and pay returns, while completing the business loop through the parent company Persistence's LRD model.

For a business model introduction, refer to:

https://link.medium.com/7RGGHZgI0Jb

From a technical perspective, pSTAKE Finance is a liquidity staking protocol built on the parent company Persistence (which has provided staking protocol technical support for multiple public chains). This is commonly referred to as an LST solution. Many people compare Persistence to Eigenlayer of Cosmos, as it integrates the underlying technical solutions for LST and LRT on Cosmos. Their relationship is as follows:

Conclusion

Recently, Binance released the "Binance Token Listing Project Open Recruitment Plan." This article attempts to use pSTAKE Finance, invested by Binance Labs, as an example to deeply analyze the project using various indicators favored by exchanges. It does not mean that analyzing the token will definitely lead to price increases, nor does it mean that analyzing the project will immediately lead to a listing on Binance; the specifics still depend on market dynamics.

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