Trump has been convicted on all 34 felony charges. Does he still have a chance to return to the White House?

Sources: Bloomberg; BBC; Decrypt

Compiled by: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance

Donald Trump has been convicted on all 34 counts of felony falsification of business records in a Manhattan criminal trial, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted. This introduces an explosive and unpredictable new variable into the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Trump has endured two impeachments and countless other scandals, yet he still leads Biden in most polls.

1. Is Trump's Conviction an Opportunity for Biden?

Bipartisan presidential campaign strategists agree that the guilty verdict provides Biden with a new opportunity, as Biden's lackluster performance and declining poll numbers have raised concerns among many Democratic lawmakers and party officials.

Biden's campaign communications director Michael Tyler stated in a statement on Thursday that this outcome shows "no one is above the law," and that Trump "has long mistakenly believed he would never be held accountable for breaking the law for personal gain." However, Biden also acknowledged that the legal system alone cannot stop Trump from reclaiming the White House in November.

Biden stated in fundraising promotions: "There is only one way to stop Donald Trump from taking the White House: through the ballot box."

Trump's felony conviction provides Biden with an opportunity to refocus voters' attention on Trump's actions, potentially shaking up the campaign landscape.

"If we don't fully leverage the verdict, that would be a dereliction of duty," said Republican strategist Alex Conant, a veteran of Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign. "I hope President Biden makes an important speech to rally Democratic officials nationwide to do everything possible to make the campaign a referendum on Trump."

2. The Story of Trump and the Adult Film Star

Adult film star Stormy Daniels claims she had an affair with Trump starting in 2006, and he has since tried to keep the matter quiet.

Daniels is her stage name; her real name is Stephanie Clifford, born in 1979 in Louisiana. Before directing and writing starting in 2004, she was an adult film actress. Daniels claims that during a celebrity golf tournament in Lake Tahoe, California, in July 2006, she had a one-time sexual encounter with Trump, who had already married Melania Trump in 2005.

Trump has vehemently denied having an extramarital affair with Daniels.

Out of concern for her family's safety, Daniels accepted a "hush money" payment from Trump's personal lawyer.

Trump's private lawyer Michael Cohen has also confirmed that he privately paid Daniels $130,000.

Daniels pointed out that she signed the document regarding the so-called "hush money" with Trump's lawyer Cohen shortly before the election, but Trump did not sign it, making it legally invalid.

3. Will Voter Attitudes Change?

Trump is attempting to use this verdict to energize his core supporters, most of whom believe his claim that the prosecution is politically motivated and aimed at preventing him from taking power.

"The real verdict will be rendered by the people on November 5, who know what is happening here," Trump said in a brief comment to reporters outside the courtroom.

Trump used a similar strategy last year, leveraging Republican anger over his indictment to force his primary opponents out of the race. However, it remains unclear whether this will work in the general election.

James Carville, a senior strategist for Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign, stated that the most important factor of the guilty verdict is that it was rendered by a fair jury—therefore, it may resonate with marginal and undecided voters who typically ignore partisan messengers.

"Trump cannot win solely with his own people," Carville said. "And this will certainly have a dampening effect on everyone else."

Surveys conducted before the verdict indicated that Trump would indeed pay a price for the jury's conclusion, which found that Trump intentionally falsified business records during the 2016 presidential campaign to conceal his extramarital affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from voters.

On May 23, a poll conducted by Marquette Law School found that if the verdict is "guilty," Biden would lead Trump by 4 percentage points in a national head-to-head matchup, while if the verdict is "not guilty," Trump would lead by 6 percentage points.

Whether the campaign will change may depend more on Biden than on Trump. At least some strategists from both parties expect that Trump's newly acquired felon status will have lasting effects—provided that Biden and his campaign team can emphasize this conviction to those who largely do not care about national affairs.

Trump's campaign team also faces practical issues, as they have hoped to increase travel to battleground states without being constrained by court schedules. His sentencing is set for July 11, just four days before the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee.

After the verdict was announced, evidence of internal strife emerged, as Trump's representatives clashed on social media with former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (now the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from that state), who had urged Americans to "respect the verdict and legal process."

The label of "felon" may unsettle low-engagement, low-information voters, who are the reason Trump currently leads.

Although Trump's campaign team publicly claims to be unconcerned about the trial, Trump has privately told allies and advisors that he does not want to be a felon.

4. Trump's Response

Prosecutors allege that Trump directed Cohen to pay $130,000 to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election to prevent her from going public about their alleged sexual encounter. The prosecution argues that Trump reimbursed Cohen for the hush money, with several entries labeled as "legal services" in the company books. Trump's team claims that this money was actually for legal work.

Trump has denied all charges, calling the trial "rigged."

Trump has also called on donors to contribute to his beleaguered presidential campaign.

"They searched my home, arrested me, took my picture, and now they just convicted me!" a fundraising appeal stated. "Before today ends, I am calling on ten million patriotic supporters of Trump to donate."

In recent weeks, Trump's fundraising efforts have seen several victories, including raising $76 million in April, which is $25 million more than Biden raised that month. He has also received support from billionaire Miriam Adelson and Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, two of the biggest Republican donors. Trump raised $40 million at a campaign event in Texas, much of it from executives in the oil and gas industry, including Continental Resources Chairman Harold Hamm.

5. Reactions from Traditional Finance and Cryptocurrency Markets

Trump's verdict has yet to impact Wall Street.

From all-weather currency trading to after-hours stock trading, most financial assets (excluding shares of Trump Media & Technology Group) remained stable after the New York jury found Trump guilty on all 34 felony counts.

But for traders, the current question is how this decision will affect the markets, which have already begun preparing for the 2024 U.S. election—where Trump will almost certainly face President Joe Biden.

Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, stated: "The stock market has historically been unaffected by domestic political turmoil. However, after Trump's verdict, the political atmosphere will clearly be more tumultuous, which could exacerbate stock market volatility."

Compared to the stable performance of traditional financial assets, cryptocurrency assets have reacted more dramatically.

TRUMP's price plummeted from about $15 before the verdict announcement to $11.27 shortly after, dropping nearly 25% in just over an hour.

Smaller market cap Trump-themed coins have also seen significant declines, with MAGA Hat (MAGA) dropping 16% in an hour, Super Trump (STRUMP) down 16% in an hour, and MAGA VP (MVP) falling 22% in an hour.

Meme coins inspired by Trump's main competitor, current President Joe Biden, surged after the verdict. The largest meme coin, Jeo Boden (BODEN), rose 12% in an hour.

6. Other Issues to Watch

1. What Happens After Trump's Conviction?

The next step will be sentencing by Judge Juan Merchan, scheduled for July 11. This is just days before the Republican National Convention on July 15, where the party will formally nominate Trump as its presidential candidate for the November 5 election. Merchan has indicated that Trump can remain free until sentencing.

Convicted defendants typically face imprisonment, but the law does not mandate incarceration. Especially since the former president is 77 years old and a first-time offender with no criminal record, leniency may be warranted. Trump may also be required to pay some form of financial penalty.

2. How Long Could Trump Be in Prison?

Each count is a Class E felony, with a sentence of 1.5 to 4 years. Since Trump has been convicted on multiple counts, he could be sentenced to serve multiple terms concurrently, meaning the former president would serve all sentences at the same time.

3. Can Trump Appeal?

Yes, he immediately filed an appeal against the verdict, stating that this fight "is far from over." However, he can only appeal to New York state after sentencing.

Trump may ultimately seek intervention from the U.S. Supreme Court.

4. Where Might Trump Serve His Sentence?

It is currently unclear where Trump will serve his sentence, but the U.S. Secret Service, responsible for protecting current or former presidents, has met with federal, state, and local officials to discuss the possibility of Trump's incarceration.

If Trump is sentenced to one year or less, he may serve time at Rikers Island in New York, which has seven jails. Allen Weisselberg, the former CFO of the Trump Organization, who is 76 years old, recently pleaded guilty to tax fraud and is currently serving five months in the medical unit of that jail.

5. Does Trump's Conviction Mean He Can't Run for Re-election?

Trump can still run for public office. The U.S. Constitution has very few requirements for running for office, including no restrictions based on character or criminal record.

6. How Will This Verdict Affect the 2024 Election?

It is currently unclear how his conviction will impact the election outcome. However, if Trump wins, it would mark the first time a convicted felon has served as head of state in the U.S.—a fact not uncommon in other parts of the world. Trump has compared himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.

7. If Trump is Elected Again, Can He Pardon Himself?

If Trump is elected again, he could theoretically instruct the Justice Department to dismiss these cases.

Blockchain prediction market Polymarket shows that traders still expect Trump to defeat Biden in the November election. Even after the verdict, Trump remains far ahead—his chances of winning are at 56%, while Biden's are at 38%.