Opinion: The altcoin bull market is about to arrive, and it's the right time to buy on dips

Original Title: “Is the altcoin bull market coming?”

Author: CryptoAmsterdam

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Is the altcoin bull market about to arrive? This article will express my views from the following two aspects.

1. Bull markets have different phases, and I believe the altcoin bull market has not yet started.
2. Why I think many people will miss out, and how I am operating.

Cycle

All assets exhibit similar cyclical structures over any time frame. Focus on the weekly cycle, which is what we typically refer to as the bull market on a higher time frame.

1. Bull Market
2. Bear Market
3. Consolidation Period
4. Doubt Period

(1) Bull Market

The 4th and 5th phases are where parabolic rises occur.

The cyclical structure applies to BTC, and you can find market structure in the fluctuations of each cycle phase.

• Bull Market = Higher Highs / Higher Lows
• Bear Market = Lower Highs / Lower Lows
• Consolidation Period = Equal Highs / Equal Lows
• Doubt Period = Initial Higher Highs (milliseconds / trend breakout)
• Bull Market = Higher Highs / Higher Lows

Even though you can already identify trends, market structures, and cycle phases, adding a range can make it clearer.

The 4th phase is the breakout of the initial high, indicating a trend change, while the 5th phase is where the bull market shows parabolic rises.

Range Low Reclaim

To identify the 4th phase, you can use the range low reclaim setup to capture the opportunity of price rebounding from a downtrend and re-entering the previous trading range. After the price breaks below the range (3rd phase), it reclaims above the range low (phase 4), and subsequently, the price usually approaches the range high again (5th phase). We hope to operate as close to the range low as possible.

By combining the cyclical structure, market structure, and range reclaim setups, you will get a blueprint:

• Understand where we are in the cycle
• Find your entry point / invalidation point / target
• Understand the current situation and expectations

As you can see, BTC has reached the range high after reclaiming the range low.

This pattern allowed us to enter after BTC reclaimed the range low in 2023, entering the doubt period phase.

If I told you that, in my view, the current position of altcoins is very similar to BTC, what would you think?

( Tweet Source）

In the first phase of the bull market, it is mainly BTC, while in the second phase, it is the time for altcoins to catch up. BTC's high price attracts attention, and profit-taking and greed will later guide them to focus on altcoins. This shift always occurs after a new high for BTC.

The reasons why altcoins are likely to start or are about to experience a significant upward trend:

Historically, when BTC rises sharply and sets new highs, it marks the peak of its dominance. Although BTC may go higher first, the fact is that it has been in an upward trend since this cycle, indicating that altcoins have not yet experienced their bull market cycle.

ETH/BTC is entering the range low, in the 4th phase, which is the reversal area. In the last cycle, ETH's trading against BTC was in the doubt period. Imagine if it enters the 5th phase: the parabolic rise phase; what this cycle would look like. A reversal means an upward trend for altcoins, which will extend to the broader market.

ETH/USD

When ETHBTC rebounds, I expect ETH/USD to reclaim the middle range and form a false breakout of the middle range.

Trigger conditions: reclaim the middle range and break the market structure and trend lines of the lower time frame.

ETH ETF

Excited about next week's ETH ETF decision, which is expected to be delayed, but who knows, anyway, I think the market has already priced it in, a potential bearish outcome may have already been anticipated and digested by market participants, entering a macro reversal area, which is very exciting. The meme sell-off, perhaps in anticipation of a trend change?

Anyway, back to the argument about the altcoin cycle.

• The cryptocurrency cycle is already halfway through;
• The first phase is mainly dominated by Bitcoin, with some standout individual coins;
• In the second phase, altcoins will catch up;

The altcoin market will reduce PvP (player versus player) competition.

So, how will I operate, and why do I think most people will be marginalized again?

It is important to understand that if you bet on the altcoin bull market based on the reasons above (range low reclaim, cryptocurrency and AI bull market cycle structure, etc.), you are actually just betting on the occurrence of a trading setup/structure.

To simplify, it is the range low reclaim under a higher time frame.

• Trigger conditions: range low reclaim
• Target 1: range high area
• Target 2 based on cycle structure: ultimately surpassing the range high
• Invalidation condition: accepting below the range low again (indicating a bearish market structure)
• Entry: as close to the range low as possible

This structure appears in any time frame and should be operated in the same way, regardless of duration. This is where the difficulty lies.

Imagine this setup is a 1-minute chart, it re-enters the range, and you enter. Now, in the next 15 minutes (that is, 15 candlesticks), it pulls back to the range low, which is completely normal and does not invalidate the setup.

Everyone can hold on, and most people may be psychologically prepared to increase their positions when the price pulls back to the range low.

This is how you should operate this setup; the problem is that this is not a 1-minute candlestick chart, but a weekly chart.

• The drawdown is larger
• It takes longer

The problem is:

• People lack patience;
• They want to act;
• When it takes longer, it may lead to poor execution;
• They cannot stand the drawdown;
• Trying to make small trades within this larger setup;

Overall, the altcoin market cap chart is not an asset you can buy, but it is the basis of my argument about the arrival of the altcoin bull market cycle and the setup/trade I am operating.

• Buy altcoins when retesting the range low
• Sell altcoins at or above the range high

How am I operating?

I have been buying on dips. My first buy was based on the retest of this 0.25 level. In a bull market (after deviating from and reclaiming the range low), the 0.25 level usually acts as a continuation for entering the 5th phase.

But it could also fail and drop. The 0.25 setup would be invalidated, but remember: I am operating the initial macro range low reclaim setup, which is still very active. We may just be retesting the range low, providing an excellent opportunity.

Take FET as an example.

This could be painful, as it means the overall market would pull back 30% (or more) again, and there would be more volatility and time consumption, but again, this does not invalidate our main setup.

Range low: my second buy pullback area.

BTC failed to successfully flip the 0.25 level in 2021 and retested the range low. (Just like the historical COVID pullback)