Cryptocurrency Market Outlook for May: Token Allocation and Market Observation under Narrative & Catalyst

Author: SleepinRain

Hello everyone, the May outlook is here, thanks for waiting.

Considering the previous unclear market conditions (although I think it's a bottom, I still want to observe for a few days), I didn't release content on May 1st.

Now the content is here, Enjoy～

This article is my personal summary based on Narrative & Catalyst of the tokens I am preparing to lay out, and hype is hype, but don't fall in love with the project～

Overall, I don't think there's a rush to FOMO in directly. You can wait for a pullback, or start with a small position and gradually increase your holdings.

1/ AI

The AI narrative is also the most talked-about narrative in recent days. The main reasons are that the AI narrative has several clear catalysts:

• May 22: NVIDIA Earnings;

• June 10: Apple WWDC 2024 will also release some additional AI-related content;

• ChatGPT 5 may be released this summer, and a GPT version of the search engine is coming;

• May 14: Google I/O conference

Essentially, this is a matter of attention. That is, events generate expectations, expectations foster market attention, and market attention drives prices up.

There are many AI projects in the crypto space, and selecting tokens is an art. Generally, I prefer tokens that have market recognition + are listed on CEXs. For example, $FET and $TAO.

Although $TAO has a large market cap, the staking rate is quite high, and the circulation is low.

$FET is preparing for a merger with $OCEAN & $AGIX. On May 3, Fetch.ai minted an additional 1,477,549,566 tokens in preparation for the next step of conversion.

Between $TAO and $FET, I chose $FET. Actually, $TAO is also quite good, haha, but my personal funds are limited, so I decided to simplify.

If you like computing power projects, you can check out $RNDR and $AKT.

• Another track I am optimistic about is AI agents, specifically $OLAS. However, $OLAS is considered a long-term position for me, so I will just hold it for now. I will also increase my position when I make profits from other tokens.

• Another AI agent target is $PRIME, which I previously sold off at $24-26. The expectations for $PRIME should be in the second half of this year or 2025, so there’s no rush to lay out.

In addition, some small opportunities can be monitored, such as UpRock from Jupiter's second Launchpad.

Also, some interactive score-farming projects, I personally feel the profit margin is not high because where there are many people, there is competition.

Of course, there are many AI projects, and I have many that I haven't focused on. A simple logic is: Is the market willing to pay for corresponding AI projects (market attention).

2/ MEME

As for MEME, I won't say much about the on-chain aspect, it's like finding gold in the dirt. I will most likely only focus on $WIF and $PEPE (I don't deny that memecoins like $BOME, $BONK, and $FLOKI are also good targets for speculation).

$PEPE is my long-term position, while I like to trade $WIF in waves. I buy in or increase my position when BTC pulls back and market sentiment is low, and sell when sentiment rebounds. This type of operation is only suitable for a bull market. I believe both $WIF and $PEPE have the potential to become meme tokens at the level of $SHIB in this cycle.

3/ Solana

You can check out Teacher Pima's views. I want to add that what $JUP is currently doing is not just DEX, it is striving to become the front end of the entire Solana ecosystem. Let's take a look at what Jupiter is currently doing:

• DEX aggregation: launched Metropolis Part 1, introduced a new T0 API that allows users to query on-chain markets with the highest liquidity for direct swaps. Also launched

• Perp DEX;

• Launchpad;

• Acquired Ultimate Wallet and its mobile team to promote the Jupiter Mobile plan;

• Jito Bundles (tip feature to protect users from MEV attacks);

• LST jupSOL;

• Meme: WEN, WEN is working on NFT and SOL staking-related matters;

The Jupiter team has a broad vision, so I believe $JUP is the biggest Beta for Solana. And $WEN will be the Beta for $JUP.

The value of $JTO lies in LSD and MEV, as Teacher Pima mentioned, the thriving Solana ecosystem is beneficial for Jito.

Additionally, the second phase of Jupiter's project, Sanctum, is worth paying attention to, where you can stake SOL for points. Feel free to use my link (https://sanc.tm/w?ref=8VZMS1).

$PYTH is about to unlock tokens worth $1.19 billion, so I’m not very optimistic. As for $TSNR and $W, I won't look into them. Currently, neither has significant catalysts, and there are many trapped positions.

Still, the same saying applies: simplify.

Moreover, there are many interesting concepts on Solana, including Depin (io.net), cross-chain bridges with BTC (BRC20, RUNES), RWA, etc. I won't update them one by one, but I will share new positions on Twitter if there are any.

4/ Basechain

From my logic (market attention), there are two things that can attract market attention. One has already happened: Friend Tech issuing tokens. The other is on the way: the official launch of Coinbase Smart Wallet.

The good targets on Base are just a few.

My largest position is $DEGEN. The others are basically memecoins.

I believe Basechain will definitely be the birthplace of SocialFi. Including Friend Tech (I haven't sold any of the Friend Tech airdrop, a small part is used for LP, and many people have already discussed Friend Tech on Twitter, so I won't elaborate further) and Farcaster, these SocialFi projects will definitely have very good development on Coinbase and Basechain. I see that the community's view on Degen is: no longer viewing Degen as a meme, but treating it as a Layer3.

My view is: I still think the biggest attribute of $DEGEN is MEME. My judgment is mainly based on its name and place of origin.

5/ ETH

I still have a positive outlook on ETH. I believe the ETF is unlikely to pass in May, but there is a chance in August. According to GCR's view, he thinks the ETH ETF might be approved by the end of 2024 or in 2025.

I still hold $PENDLE and did not sell any during the last FUD. From a more macro perspective, after Eigenlayer ends, airdrops/points will still be a means for projects to acquire users/TVL or to initiate cold starts. Therefore, the underlying core value of Pendle still exists. Pendle v3 is also on the way, with the core term being "Intent".

Buying during FUD might be a better choice.

$LDO has a good fundamental outlook, but unfortunately, it is not the spring for value coins right now, so its performance is mediocre, even poor. But I personally believe $LDO is actually the Beta for Ethereum, while $PEPE is the Alpha.

The upcoming halving of $ETC is also worth paying attention to.

Additionally, $MODE is worth keeping an eye on.

6/ BlackRock

BlackRock's layout in crypto is also something that can easily attract market attention. What they are mainly doing is ETFs and RWA (and some infrastructure). The BTC ETF has already been approved, and the mainstream target for RWA is $ONDO.

I think it’s worth observing BlackRock's layout, and following their moves for speculation is also a good choice.

7/ European Championship + Summer Olympics

Similar to the previous speculation around the World Cup, the Summer Olympics and the European Championship have similar speculative expectations. Like the AI narrative, this kind of speculation is triggered by large external events.

8/ Gaming

Finally, a brief note on gaming: I am optimistic, but I don't know when the wind will blow towards the gaming sector. I think we should focus on games that have a sufficient player base.

In Conclusion

Overall, "Sell in May and go away" is a very mainstream operation, but I don't think May will see a significant drop without major negative events occurring. I lean towards a sideways movement in May (referring to BTC), a period of cultivation. Some altcoins that are part of the narrative may have some opportunities.