U.S. Election 2024: The Accumulated Crypto Voters May Become the "Kingmakers"

Source: Forbes

Original Compilation: BitpushNews Mary Liu

Economic trends, immigration policies, climate change, abortion rights… The U.S. election always revolves around these hot-button issues.

But a new wedge issue is emerging in American politics—one that will drive millions of voters to the polls, breaking down party and demographic boundaries, and likely determining the outcome of the next presidential election.

That issue is cryptocurrency.

Compared to 2020, cryptocurrency holders will coalesce into a unified voting bloc in 2024. Millions of voters live in key swing states, where the last presidential election was decided by the narrowest of margins. According to research from Morning Consult, millions believe that cryptocurrency is a decisive issue in the voting booth.

The Rise of Crypto Voters

The rise of cryptocurrency voters directly accompanies the rise of cryptocurrency as an asset class.

Let’s not forget that most of the last Bitcoin bull market occurred after the 2020 presidential election. Months later, Michael Saylor donned his laser eyes avatar, corporate brands began tweeting "WAGMI," and Elon Musk promoted Dogecoin on a popular television show.

After Biden's election, the industry experienced the most explosive period of retail adoption in its history. The last bull market created a new wave of millionaires and more cryptocurrency voters.

Today, one in five Americans owns digital assets, which amounts to 52 million people. Perhaps most striking is the political composition of this group: according to survey data from Coinbase and Morning Consult, 22% of surveyed cryptocurrency holders identify as Democrats, 18% as Republicans, and 22% as independents. Additionally, 60% are Gen Z or Millennials, and 41% are minorities.

Young, diverse, and bipartisan cooperation. These are the three main characteristics of the cryptocurrency voting bloc. While this voting group was not a significant factor in 2020, it is poised to play a major role this November.

Winning the Crypto Vote: The Key to the White House?

Swing voters decide elections. That’s why campaign teams are establishing their presence in battleground states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Morning Consult conducted a poll to assess cryptocurrency sentiment in these four swing states. In the process, it found that millions of Americans view digital assets as a top issue.

What’s the most important finding? About 18% of voters in these states (or 3.4 million people) own digital assets. Surprisingly, 55% of them indicated they are less likely to vote for candidates who obstruct cryptocurrency values. These values include believing that the current economic system is unfair and favors large corporations, along with a corresponding desire for a decentralized web3 economy.

In other words, in just these four swing states, cryptocurrency could sway the votes of up to 1.9 million voters, enough to influence the election.

These swing states are often decided by the narrowest of margins. For example, in 2020, Biden led Trump in Pennsylvania by just 82,000 votes and in Nevada by only 34,000 votes.

Given the rapid growth of this voting bloc, candidates only need to take a pro-cryptocurrency stance to redraw the electoral map for 2024. These numbers paint a clear picture: whichever presidential candidate wins the crypto vote is almost guaranteed the key to the White House.

The crypto vote is essentially up for grabs, and the sheer size of this voting bloc presents a tremendous opportunity for political candidates. To better understand this opportunity, I reached out to Coinbase’s policy chief, Faryar Shirzad.

"There are tens of millions of Americans participating in the crypto economy," Faryar Shirzad said. "When I talk to innovators across the country, their enthusiasm for blockchain is incredible. Any politician who ignores this passionate community is missing an important and active segment of the American electorate."

Biden, Bitcoin, and Young Voters

Ironically, despite the political benefits of embracing Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, the two main competitors—Joe Biden and Donald Trump—have steered clear of the topic.

As for President Biden, he seems uninterested in engaging with this group of voters. In fact, many of his policies have alienated digital asset holders.

For instance, last year, President Biden accused "wealthy cryptocurrency investors" of exploiting tax loopholes supported by "MAGA Republicans." Meanwhile, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has attempted to suppress cryptocurrency exchanges and protocols through enforcement regulation, a move that has drawn condemnation from several members of Congress. He has the support of one of the Senate's most powerful allies, Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has formed an "anti-crypto army" to wage "war" on the industry.

Will the government’s hostile attitude toward cryptocurrency haunt Biden again in November?

Gemini co-founder and president Cameron Winklevoss seems to think so. In a post on X, Winklevoss expressed his view that Senator Warren and the SEC chairman's "war on cryptocurrency will alienate an entire generation of future Democrats." In Winklevoss's view, these two could become liabilities for the Biden team, reminding voters of his administration's crackdown on cryptocurrency companies and investors.

Given Biden's aggressive stance on digital asset regulation, will Trump take the opposite approach to distinguish himself from his opponent?

Does Trump Have an Opportunity?

By simply embracing Bitcoin and decentralized values, Trump could siphon off pro-cryptocurrency Democrats and independents who would otherwise vote for Biden. He could appeal to the 1.9 million voters in swing states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where cryptocurrency is a top concern. In 2020, Trump narrowly lost three of these four states. But he could win them back by catering to cryptocurrency voters.

There’s only one catch: Trump has previously expressed skepticism about digital assets. In a June 2021 interview with Fox Business, Trump stated, "Bitcoin, it seems like a scam. I don’t like it because it competes with the dollar."

So has Trump been stubborn? Is he destined to oppose Bitcoin forever?

Despite Trump's tough stance on cryptocurrency in the past, there is increasing evidence that his position has softened over the last two years. For example, in December 2022, he launched a series of NFT trading cards to win support. Riding the momentum, he released another series of new "Mugshot" NFTs at the beginning of the year. According to financial disclosure documents, this new NFT fundraising was announced after a report showed that Trump had $2.8 million in cryptocurrency in an Ethereum wallet.

By venturing into the cryptocurrency space with NFTs, will Trump continue to bash Bitcoin? His every word and action regarding cryptocurrency could not only change his financial portfolio but also potentially alter the outcome of the 2024 election.