Macroeconomic Overview

On the macro front, Goldman Sachs released its latest report yesterday, indicating that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the U.S. economy appears to be performing well, with the market's performance in 2023 far exceeding expectations. They anticipate that this positive situation is likely to continue into 2024. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields are declining, the Federal Reserve is about to shift to a more accommodative monetary policy, and GDP growth is also above general market expectations. The future economic outlook for the U.S. seems relatively clear.

Regarding ETFs

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated in an interview with Cointelegraph that the rejection of the spot Bitcoin ETF this month is likely because the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) wants "more time" rather than a direct rejection, but the possibility of rejection is low. He and ETF analyst James Seyffart continue to believe that the likelihood of approval before January 10 is 90%. Balchunas believes that if the SEC rejects it, fund issuers may follow Grayscale's lead and file separate lawsuits against the SEC.

Currently, BlackRock is injecting $10 million into their spot Bitcoin ETF. Bitwise has injected $200 million in seed funding. Hashdex has provided $2.8 million in seed funding. WisdomTree has injected $2.5 million into its project. Various institutions are gearing up, waiting for the starting gun.

MicroStrategy's Stock Sale

Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, is selling nearly $216 million worth of MicroStrategy stock. According to documents submitted on Tuesday, these 315,000 shares were purchased through stock options. A MicroStrategy spokesperson stated that the company previously announced plans for Saylor to sell up to 400,000 shares between January 2 and April 26 this year. MicroStrategy's stock price has surged 372% over the past year. It is highly likely that Saylor will use the funds from the stock sale to buy Bitcoin again, with over $200 million in buy orders on the way. Currently, MicroStrategy's unrealized profit from investments stands at $2.65 billion, making it a super winner in this bull market.

ETH Update

Regarding ETH, Vitalik Buterin updated the ETH roadmap and summarized the progress in various directions, including The Merge, The Surge, The Scourge, The Verge, The Purge, and The Splurge. Overall, the progress is still in line with expectations, and the Cancun upgrade is likely to land at the end of January or early February, with a wave of speculation currently underway.

L2Beat Data

According to L2Beat data, in the past 7 days, Arbitrum One's TVL has increased by 15.9% to $10.22 billion, becoming the first L2 network to surpass $10 billion in TVL. In the composition of Arbitrum's assets, 30.9% is ETH, 23.68% is ARB, 29.66% is stablecoins, and 15.76% is others. ARB has also seen a strong upward trend in recent days; the old bull has finally started. This round of ARB's price action has been quite intense; while everything else was fluctuating wildly, it remained stable. I estimate that many people couldn't hold on and switched vehicles, cleaning out the holders before starting to rally. This market maker has some skill.

ORDS Performance

Since its listing, ORDS has performed well, currently priced around 0.079. This project was only hit by investors when it first launched, but it has since maintained an upward trend without trapping many people. The website experience is also decent, much better than those junk projects.

On-chain Activity

On the on-chain front, since October this year, stablecoins have continuously flowed into the BTC market. Accompanied by the rise of BTC, SSR has risen again. An increase supported by funds is healthy.

Market Analysis

In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin faced resistance during its breakout, with some supply appearing, which is related to the divergence at the daily level. However, there was no follow-up supply today, which is considered an ideal trend. The selling pressure above has been consumed, and if it breaks through again in the future, the pressure will be slightly less. We will observe the supply strength at that time. The smaller time frames are currently in a consolidation structure, which also looks healthy. Before the ETF approval, we should still view the market with a bullish mindset, so patience is required.

ETH Correlation

In the altcoin sector, the Cancun upgrade segment remains strong, with ARB leading this wave. Its trend has slightly accelerated and has broken new highs. If it continues to accelerate, we need to consider the possibility of a short-term pullback.

The inscription segment ORDI is performing strongly, while Sats seems a bit heavy. The time for consolidation after the breakout has not been sufficient. If the support around 75 can stabilize, the probability of a breakout upwards in the future is high. The likely catalyst for the breakout is the Binance wallet, but there are currently no updates available. The market has not seen a widespread bullish trend in the past few days, with funds rotating and switching, so we should not be too hasty and must pay attention to risks.

Fear Index 70