Macroeconomic Overview

On Friday night at 21:30, the non-farm employment and unemployment rate data for December will be released. The previous unemployment rate was 3.7%, with a forecast of 3.8%. The previous non-farm employment figure was 199,000, with a forecast of 163,000. The holiday season in the U.S. is basically over, and the withdrawal of funds from the capital market has greatly eased. Tonight, as the U.S. stock market opens, it is highly likely that the market will continue its previous upward trend, setting a good tone for the first trading day of 2024.

Internal news from BlackRock indicates that the SEC will approve the Bitcoin spot ETF before the weekend. There are also reports suggesting that the SEC may approve the ETF application in the next couple of days. Early this morning, the CME had a premium of over $1,000, and the premium rate on Coinbase began to rise rapidly from 10 PM last night. U.S. funds are very active in the market, and based on the funding behavior, it is highly likely that the SEC will approve ETF products in the short term.

Looking at the options market, the implied volatility (IV) for short-term options has surged significantly. Currently, the IV for at-the-money options expiring on January 12 has surpassed 70%, and the IV for at-the-money options this week has also increased to 65%. Meanwhile, block trades have become active, with nearly $300 million in nominal value of bullish options traded today, primarily focusing on short-term at-the-money and medium-term out-of-the-money options. These orders may come from insiders who are aware of the ETF approval results.

Reflecting on the approval of the gold spot ETF in 2004, gold prices rose by 420% as liquidity and algorithmic trading increased. If the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, it would signify a massive recognition of Bitcoin and even the Web 3.0 world by the traditional wealth sector, further accelerating the integration of the two. On another note, Bitcoin's total supply is fixed at 21 million coins, while gold continues to have new production. Over a longer period, the potential funding scale for investing in Bitcoin products is estimated to be between $125 billion and $450 billion.

TRB has shown an extraordinary performance. With such a movement, there are basically no contracts left on the car, whether long or short, and even very low leverage can be liquidated. Given the current trend, I actually think it might be worth participating in the spot market, as it has stabilized at a smaller level. The manipulation of this coin is quite strong, so technical analysis may fail; this is just a reference for those who are long-term holders of TRB and familiar with this coin.

A bankruptcy lawyer has stated that the bankruptcy of FTX may take several years to resolve. This is due to multiple claims being pursued, as FTX's lawyers are trying to recover the funds spent by the collapsed exchange before its bankruptcy. I also believe that FTX's restart will not happen quickly. From this perspective, Binance still holds an absolute dominant position in this bull market, and it is difficult for other exchanges to take away its market share.

The Supreme People's Procuratorate has issued an opinion on "fully leveraging the procuratorial functions to legally serve and guarantee high-quality financial development." The opinion points out the need to maintain a high-pressure stance against illegal public deposit absorption, fundraising fraud, and organized pyramid schemes, and to continuously increase the punishment for illegal fundraising crimes in areas such as pseudo-private equity, pseudo-gold exchanges, pensions, private equity funds, virtual currencies, and prepaid cards. It also emphasizes the need to pay attention to new risks of financial crimes carried out under the guise of investments in virtual currencies and digital collectibles, and to proactively work with relevant departments to develop response plans. For those trading cryptocurrencies, the biggest risk is OTC, so I advise everyone to be extremely cautious when entering or exiting funds; stepping on this landmine can be very troublesome.

On-chain, several major address categories are still in an accumulation state, with only whale addresses greater than 10,000 and shrimp addresses less than 1 showing some outflow. Overall on-chain supply is not large.

In terms of market performance, Bitcoin's price action basically indicates that the ETF will be approved soon, and the rapid influx of U.S. funds confirms this. Currently, there is some divergence at the daily level, but given the potential huge benefit of the ETF approval, the technical resistance levels may not significantly impact the market. I estimate that once the news of the ETF approval comes out, the market will quickly FOMO, and Bitcoin will accelerate its rise. This rise is likely to form a peak for a phase and could also be the starting point for a large-scale phase adjustment, so it’s important to pay close attention to the market and news. Once the news lands and the market accelerates, be wary of risks.

ETH is also linked; recently, funds have started to speculate on the Cancun upgrade concept, and the price movements of ETH's L2 concept tokens are still good, so continue to hold.

In the altcoin sector, recent performances of altcoins have been relatively average, with many coins in a corrective phase after rising. The Cancun upgrade sector is relatively strong. The inscription sector appears to be at the end of a correction, and if funds enter the market, it could have conditions for a rally. It may be worth positioning for the Binance wallet's integration with BRC20 as a positive development. If Bitcoin accelerates its rise and then corrects, funds may shift back and initiate an altcoin season, so keep an eye on inscriptions and the Ethereum L2 track.

Fear Index: 71