Data Analysis: Currently the least active NFT moment of the year
The blue-chip NFT index has found temporary "support" near this year's lowest point after falling for five consecutive weeks, while we also see a noticeable rebound in the prices of most blue-chip assets.Author: Echoo Research
Market Trends This Week
Weekly NFT Market Volume
The cryptocurrency market has experienced an overall decline over the past two weeks, with BTC's price dropping from $25,000 to $19,500, a decrease of 20%, and ETH falling from $2,000 to $1,400, nearly a 30% drop.
The NFT market has not fared better compared to the traditional crypto market, with this week's NFT trading volume decreasing by another 9% from last week, reaching the lowest range of the year. We cannot determine if this is the bottom for the NFT market, but it is certain that "this is the least active period for the NFT market this year."
From a broader time perspective, the overall trading volume of the NFT market continues to hover at a low range, showing no signs of a strong rebound.
(Let's quickly review this bear market: since May of this year, the trend of declining NFT trading volume has persisted for 15 weeks, and we are still waiting for a stronger reversal signal to appear.)
Weekly NFT Market Traders (Source: echoo.substack.com)
The number of participants in trading this week has not changed much from last week; the market decline has not led to an increase in "bottom-fishing" participants. Instead, the net value difference between buying and selling has widened, and the total number of traders has started to converge, indicating that fewer people are participating in trading, with most traders adopting a "wait-and-see" attitude.
Additionally, there are 1.2 times more sellers than buyers, which shows that the majority of the market currently leans towards "selling."
Blue Chip Index (Source: echoo.substack.com)
After five consecutive weeks of decline, the Blue Chip NFT Index has found temporary "support" near this year's lowest value. Meanwhile, we have also seen a noticeable rebound in the prices of most blue chips.
The suggestions and buying signals we provided last week have been successfully validated. Additionally, recently popular NFTs like DigiDaigaku and Pudgy Penguins were also signaled in advance in our weekly report.
It is worth noting that the current rebound strength is smaller compared to the past 25 weeks and shows a trend of flattening. Coupled with the overall market downturn, friends looking to invest in NFTs for the long term need to patiently wait for stronger rebound signals to emerge.
Weekly Trend On The Net Value Of Whale Capital (Source: echoo.substack.com)
This week, whale capital inflows turned negative again, and the fluctuations are becoming smaller, with most whales "exiting" the market.
Although the behavior of whales tends to precede the NFT market, the overall liquidity scale of whales remains low during this period of overall trading volume stagnation, indicating that whales are more inclined to participate in NFT investments with smaller capital scales.
This also aligns with our repeated emphasis: the current NFT market is weakly influenced by whales, with retail investors leading the trading.
Index Signals
1. NFTs Bought By Whales Last Week
The table below lists the top 20 NFTs bought by whales, with detailed purchase quantities and average costs as follows:
(Please note that some values may be affected by individual extreme trades and are for investment reference only.)
NFTs Bought By Whales In The 35th Week
2. Buy-Sell Signals of Blue Chip NFTs
This issue of Echoo Research provides indicators for buy-sell signals of blue chip NFTs, which serve as a reference for trading behavior.
Buy-Sell Signals Of Blue Chip NFTs In The 35th Week
Last week, the majority of blue chip prices triggered buy signals, and after the rebound, most blue chip NFT prices showed reduced volatility, indicating a "no action" signal.
Indicator Explanation
RSI Strategy: A buy-sell signal designed based on the relative strength characteristics of RSI.
Simple Usage Method: A buy signal is indicated below the fluctuation range, and a sell signal is indicated above the fluctuation range, with greater deviation indicating a stronger signal.
3. SMA Trend of Blue Chip Collections
Recently, blue chip NFTs have shown signs of rebound, breaking the continuous downward trend, but the rebound strength is insufficient to break through the SMA (20).
SMA Trend Of Blue Chip NFTs In The 35th Week
Indicator Explanation
This indicator integrates the market capitalization of blue chip NFTs and uses moving averages to reflect the trend of the NFT market.
SMA: Reflects the trend of short cycles versus long cycles.
Simple Usage Method: A buy signal is indicated when the short cycle line crosses above the long cycle line from below, and a sell signal is indicated when the short cycle line crosses below the long cycle line from above.
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