Author: Sleepy, Founder of Little Ghost

As the year comes to an end, I had a sudden idea to take a snapshot of some of my current thoughts and revisit them at the end of next year to see how many have come true and how many have exceeded my expectations.

1. Some NFT IPs will truly drive Mass Adoption

I personally believe that achieving Mass Adoption by challenging the existing financial system is unrealistic. Although the legitimate practitioners in our industry have a decentralized ideal and it has become relatively popular in some countries with severe inflation and in foreign trade scenarios, it is not realistic to achieve Mass Adoption through tokens in our everyday living environment. NFT IPs themselves represent a continuous content output capability. In my view, content is a better way to attract outsiders. By attracting them through content and lowering the entry barriers through technology, there is a chance to achieve Mass Adoption. The challenge has never been teaching outsiders how to use wallets; the difficulty lies in convincing them why they need to use wallets.

2. Surviving old projects will be blue chips in the next bull market

By "surviving," I do not mean judging by floor price or trading volume, but rather whether the team is still active. I want to share the following words with entrepreneurs in the industry: believe that effort will be rewarded. Although we often say that this industry does not reward long-termism, what we have done will always be seen by others. True long-termism will definitely yield results.

3. PFP Collections will still be the mainstream form of NFTs

What I mean here is that most projects looking to use NFTs for marketing will still issue their NFTs in the form of profile pictures, as users will become the promotional mouthpiece for the project on various social media once they change their profile pictures. To give an example that may not be entirely appropriate but effectively conveys my idea, the social media accounts of profile picture holders will turn into targeted media on various social media platforms.

4. PFPs lacking a carrier will struggle to survive beyond six months

Here, "carrier" simply means "what exactly your project is about." For example, while Jumping into the Sea is doing various activities and marketing, its main business is selling alcohol. Projects need to have a complete business model. The time left for new projects to gradually explore their business models after launch will become increasingly limited, meaning entrepreneurs can no longer wait until they sell out their NFTs to complete future planning and resource integration; these need to be addressed upfront.

5. The lifecycle of new Meme PFPs will be shorter

Memes will never disappear and will always emerge endlessly. In 2024, the lifecycle of Meme NFTs will be even shorter than now, with the wealth effect of certain projects becoming more intense.

6. The status of artists in commercial projects will further decline

Top-tier projects across various aspects are not really in discussion. With the development of AI, the gap in artistic aspects of NFT projects will be narrowed. Unless the design of the IP itself has a strong uniqueness, artists may still be dominant in their personal art projects, but in commercial projects, they will increasingly resemble tools.

7. NFTs have great potential in the RWA sector

I haven't researched RWA deeply, so some of my thoughts may be incorrect; corrections are welcome. The most important aspect of RWA is what the asset package in the real world is. From a personal perspective, I am more interested in the income rights of offline stores. Recently, I spoke with a Web2 investor friend, and they are trying to use a drip irrigation model to invest in offline stores. I won't elaborate on the specific model, but if you're interested, you can look it up yourself. I am quite looking forward to obtaining income rights from several offline stores through holding certain NFTs. Of course, how to convert between fiat and crypto is also a problem to be solved, but I am very optimistic.

8. NFT liquidity solutions will continue to iterate, and existing products will face challenges

I am not a finance major and don't trade cryptocurrencies much, but I wonder if combining NFT liquidity solutions like Blur and Flooring would be more reasonable, along with some creative ideas. I view Blur as an NFT liquidity solution rather than just a trading market. Entrepreneurs looking to outdo Blur and OpenSea might consider thinking differently.

9. Fully Virtual Metaverses will remain sluggish, but I am very optimistic about hybrid application scenarios

Purely virtual experiences are heavily reliant on user experience, especially when wrapped in the name of the metaverse. Experiences that are just mediocre will face criticism, let alone those that can't even achieve "mediocre." Coupled with social attributes, real-time rendering, and various challenges, it seems unlikely that 2024 will see much success from a technical perspective. However, I am very optimistic about hybrid experiences, where virtual assets bring us into their world before we bring them into ours.

10. A super NFT project spanning multiple sectors will emerge

Projects that start with NFT IP have immense imaginative potential for a simple reason: IP can adapt to any product or sector. For example, any project, whether it's DeFi, RWA, GameFi, social, metaverse, streetwear, etc., can use the Little Ghost IP as the project's "spokesperson." Therefore, under the premise that the team is serious about their work, NFT projects have vast extension space and can connect with various projects later. Of course, simultaneously expanding such a wide pipeline is fundamentally impossible for startups. I am merely proposing a possibility; entrepreneurs should still be grounded and take one step at a time.