Global Network | How Will the Metaverse Affect International Politics?

Source: Global Times

Authors: Bai Yunyi, Ren Zhong

"The Wealth Code of the Era" Metaverse, How Does It Affect International Politics?

Since the social media giant Facebook rebranded itself as Meta at the end of October and officially entered the metaverse, the term "metaverse" has been trending. In no time, news such as "metaverse concept stocks hitting the limit," "virtual real estate transaction prices doubling in six months," and "the metaverse luxury goods market reaching hundreds of billions of dollars" have flooded the screens, making the metaverse a wealth code of this era.

On December 10, Meta opened its virtual world platform Horizon Worlds, marking the first step toward making the metaverse a reality. While large tech companies and startups are trying to turn the metaverse concept into a viable business model, the Caribbean island nation of Barbados announced that it will officially operate a digital embassy representing a sovereign nation in the metaverse starting January 1, 2022. Experts have warned that the metaverse has potential "national security" implications, as it is breaking out of the economic sphere into international politics and social governance, which will have a profound impact on the political systems, economies, and societies of various countries.

In Meta's latest metaverse platform Horizon Worlds, all created characters only have upper bodies, leading players to criticize it as "cheap."

Is Online Diplomacy Effective?

In August this year, the Barbados Ministry of Foreign Affairs approved an agreement to establish an embassy on Decentraland, one of the world's largest digital platforms, which is expected to start operating on January 1, 2022, aiming to open doors for the country's technological and cultural diplomacy. Meanwhile, the Barbados government is considering the possibility of reaching agreements with other metaverse platforms such as Super World and Somnium Space. Decentraland has a 3D digital world composed of 90,601 "land" parcels. To act in accordance with the law, the Barbados government has also hired legal advisors to ensure that the digital embassy complies with international law and the provisions of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.

Argentinian TN News reported that Barbados's stance is avant-garde and has a significant demonstration effect on other countries. However, this is not the first embassy established in a virtual world. In 2007, the Maldives set up a diplomatic office in the video game "Second Life." "Second Life" was very popular in the early 2000s and had established a virtual "digital universe." Subsequently, other countries followed suit, with Serbia, North Macedonia, Malta, Israel, Sweden, the Philippines, and Colombia all opening virtual embassies in "Second Life."

However, whether in the era of "Second Life" or now in the metaverse era, establishing a digital embassy is more of a symbolic action and is unlikely to serve as a true representative of a country. TN News analyzed that "some avant-garde gestures often carry the risk of lacking substance." Where are many of the virtual embassies established over a decade ago in "Second Life" now? Metaverse embassies are merely facades without real content to support them.

"The effectiveness of online diplomacy is not good." Brett Bruen, former director of global engagement at the White House, told Sky News that new technologies are unlikely to replace old diplomatic methods. He said, "Diplomacy will stubbornly remain in old modes of contact. While having a Twitter account or a metaverse embassy can serve as a supplement, it certainly will not completely replace a real embassy. Only a few countries can effectively enhance their status online."

"As of now, the metaverse has not formed a very mature experience mode; it is still mainly presented through web interactions, with some elements like virtual reality added. Currently, it is hard to imagine that embassies of various countries can handle visa applications and other projects entirely within metaverse embassies." Li Zheng, a researcher at the Institute of Modern International Relations, said in an interview with the Global Times that establishing embassies in the metaverse is still at the conceptual level and is essentially no different from registering an account on social media, creating an embassy website, or developing an app on a mobile device.

Li Zheng emphasized that if metaverse technology and ecology become more mature in the future, some countries may establish fully metaverse-based virtual embassies that can perform the functions of existing embassies. However, how this technological integration and operation can be widely accepted by various groups still requires a relatively long process.

Shen Yang, a professor at Tsinghua University's School of Journalism and Communication, told the Global Times that there are several important differences between embassies in the metaverse and those on social media platforms like Twitter. First, the spatiotemporal nature has changed; embassies on Twitter are flat, while those in the metaverse are immersive three-dimensional scenes. Second, on social media like Twitter, embassies primarily interact through text and video, but in the metaverse, virtual character representations fulfill this function. Third, in the future, embassies in the metaverse may become part of the diplomatic system within the metaverse, potentially taking on some economic functions, and it cannot be ruled out that they may have some impact on the diplomatic relations of sovereign nations.

"It's like a group of people on Earth going to Mars"

In fact, political activities surrounding the metaverse are increasingly on the rise. Besides Barbados, the Seoul city government in South Korea recently announced the creation of a "metaverse platform" for public services for citizens, which is expected to be completed by the end of next year, temporarily named "Metaverse Seoul."

In the foreseeable future, national and regional governments or public authorities will gradually participate in the construction of the metaverse in various ways. Some experts analyze that these new developments will bring a series of questions and challenges to the traditional international political order.

"It's like a group of people on Earth going to Mars. At first, they need to rely on supplies and help from Earth, but as they gradually become self-sufficient on Mars, their distance from people on Earth will gradually widen. The process of North America separating from the British Commonwealth was similar. In the future, similar things may happen between the governments of sovereign nations and the builders of metaverse platforms."

Shen Yang believes that if internet companies are allowed to issue cryptocurrencies, some tech giants like Facebook, Google, and Apple will gain greater influence in the international financial arena, and the power dynamics between them and sovereign governments will change significantly. Furthermore, as robotics technology matures, it may provide these giants with violent machines. "Especially in Western societies, the phenomenon of large internet companies intervening in elections may become more pronounced—indeed, signs of this are already beginning to appear."

"The vision of the metaverse poses some substantive questions for scholars studying international relations," stated an Israeli digital diplomacy blog. Currently, the different meanings of nations at the digital and physical levels are easy to distinguish; however, in the metaverse, this distinction will disappear. How will these affect relationships between countries and the basic functions of the multilateral system? What kind of international law and new review rules does the metaverse require? How will governments take action to prevent radicalization in the metaverse?

At the same time, is digital crime occurring at the digital level, the physical level, or both? In other words, can governments prevent unregulated social media companies from making mistakes? Will the owners or creators of the metaverse become the next global power brokers? Will the countries building the metaverse become the new Apples and Googles? If so, how will their power be checked?

In an interview with the Global Times, Li Zheng explained the potential impact of the metaverse on international relations: The metaverse is a concept recently emphasized by some large American tech companies, but it is currently only in a very early stage of development, so its rules and governance are still in the initial phase. At present, these tech companies must comply with the rules set by sovereign governments in areas such as artificial intelligence, data, privacy, and security, and create and develop based on these rules. Therefore, the current development of the metaverse is still within the realm of national governance, and it is difficult to break away from national governance in the short term.

Of course, large tech companies will also form some mutually recognized consensus, rules, and terms during the process of creating or establishing the metaverse, but whether these rules can truly become meaningful regulations for the entire metaverse in the future is still uncertain.

"Currently, the concept of the metaverse carries a strong Western flavor, and the applications and concepts based on it are more in line with the relevant rules and values of European and American countries. However, whether this concept is suitable for China needs further research and evaluation." Li Zheng believes that since the metaverse is generated based on the digital economic ecology and governance rules of various countries, different countries' metaverses may also encounter incompatibilities or even conflicts, and there will be an element of international competition among them.

China Should Avoid "Wrongly Choosing the Technology Tree"

Although the metaverse is still in its early stages of development, its "technical characteristics" and "development model" indicate that it has potential national security significance. The Hong Kong South China Morning Post stated that the potential risks associated with the metaverse include a range of cybersecurity risks and "technological hegemony." Countries with lagging technological development will be at a disadvantage when seeking to access the metaverse of leading countries, potentially facing discriminatory thresholds and requirements. Developing countries may have shortcomings and gaps in the technologies and industrial chains related to the metaverse, and even if they try to catch up through their own efforts, they may have to bear high costs or increase their dependence on the technologies and standards of other countries in the process.

At the same time, the metaverse will have a profound impact on the political systems, economies, and societies of various countries. For example, it will become part of a country's "political ideology" and its social culture, subtly influencing the political culture security of that country. These risks mean that the development of the metaverse requires necessary government regulation and guidance.

Shen Yang told the Global Times that whether referred to as the "metaverse" or the "next-generation internet," several important changes will occur in the global society ahead. "First, the connections between people around the world through the internet will become closer, potentially leading to further homogenization from ideology to consumption habits to aesthetic preferences. Second, with the help of perfect filters from artificial intelligence, humanity may first achieve equality in gender, appearance, language, race, and skin color, further accelerating the globalization of the virtual world. Third, economically, the use of robots may significantly increase in the next ten to twenty years. When the labor cost of robots falls below that of some underdeveloped countries, the upward paths of many developing countries will essentially be blocked, while countries with stronger capital and technological power will benefit, leading to a solidified international landscape. Finally, the relationship between large multinational enterprises and governments will undergo further adjustments. We can see that in recent years, regulation in this area has been strengthening in Europe and the United States. New phenomena will bring a powerful impact on the existing social order, and the existing social order will also generate a huge counterforce."

There is a viewpoint that large tech companies may become important "players" in international politics to some extent in the future. In response, Li Zheng stated that this idea is supported by globalization and Western neoliberalism over the past few decades, but in reality, whether in China or the United States, the political influence of large internet companies is subject to many restrictions and has not formed a political role independent of the state.

On the contrary, they not only have to be regulated by the state but also face pressure from public opinion. Their transnational expansion behaviors are also significantly affected by local "backlash"—this backlash, which can be termed "technological nationalism," far exceeds the influence these multinational internet companies exert internationally.

As for how the Chinese government should respond to the emerging phenomenon of the metaverse, Shen Yang suggests that China should first study the core technologies of the metaverse to avoid "wrongly choosing the technology tree," which could lead to an overall lag in the industry. Second, it should create a relaxed yet precise governance atmosphere in social public opinion, control major strategic risks, and abandon the notion of "completely zero risk," as "zero risk" often also means "zero return." Third, it should encourage Chinese high-tech companies to go global. In the future, there will be fierce competition between China and the U.S. in the metaverse field, and the competition may ultimately boil down to market size. If Chinese companies only occupy the Chinese market while American companies dominate markets outside of China, there will still be an imbalance of power between China and the U.S.

The Singaporean English electronic magazine "Thought China" stated that the metaverse provides an experimental opportunity to improve or even fundamentally change the current global governance system. As metaverse-related technologies mature, when sovereign nations and international organizations also play active roles in the metaverse, it may be possible to replicate the concept of "decentralized autonomous organizations" (DAO) based on blockchain and create a brand new "Autonomous United Nations" in the metaverse. Without being influenced by any power center, all countries or international organizations as nodes of the DAO will have equal voting rights, regardless of their physical size or strength, to address common digital threats and challenges faced in the virtual world, such as cybersecurity, digital finance, and digital inequality.

In the virtual world of the metaverse, effective methods for global governance are also expected to be learned, transformed, and replicated in the real world, allowing countries to cooperate, coordinate, and jointly respond to global threats and challenges, such as geopolitical conflicts, climate change, food security, and social inequality, thus opening a new chapter for human civilization.