strike

According to CoinDesk, before the expiration of Deribit Bitcoin quarterly options, the $20,000 put options have become the third most popular strike price, with a nominal value of approximately $596 million, reflecting traders' positioning for extreme downside scenarios amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.In terms of open interest distribution, the three main strike prices are: $125,000 call options ($740 million), $75,000 ($687 million), and $20,000 put options ($596 million), showing a wide distribution of expectations for both upward and downward movements. The total nominal value of this Deribit Bitcoin options expiration is $13.5 billion, with a total open interest of 195,719 BTC, including 120,236 BTC in call contracts and 75,482 BTC in put contracts.With the current BTC price below $70,000, the $20,000 strike price is considered deeply out-of-the-money, only profitable if the market drops more than 70% from the current price. A significant amount of such activity is likely traders collecting premiums by selling these deeply out-of-the-money put options, reflecting a low probability expectation of a drop to $20,000, rather than directly hedging against crash risks— in other words, this is more of a yield enhancement or volatility strategy rather than a direct bearish bet.Overall sentiment indicates that despite the market being in extreme fear, the put/call ratio in the options market remains at 0.63, meaning there are more call options than put options, and the overall sentiment is still slightly bullish. The maximum pain point is at $75,000, which may create a magnetic effect on Bitcoin prices before expiration.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated on social media, "We will never seek a ceasefire. We firmly believe that the aggressors must be dealt a heavy blow to learn a lesson and never dare to harbor thoughts of invading Iran again. Israel has built its existence on the repeated cycle of 'war-negotiation-ceasefire-war' to consolidate its dominance. We will break this cycle."

According to Jinshi citing CCTV news reports, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that the Revolutionary Guard Navy carried out a joint operation using drones and ballistic missiles to strike a U.S. military helicopter base early that morning. The statement claimed that this round of attacks accurately hit the helicopter maintenance facilities, helicopter and aircraft fuel tanks, and command building within the base, causing severe damage. The Iranian side stated that a fierce fire broke out at the base after the attack, with large plumes of black smoke visible from a distance. The U.S. side has not yet responded to this.

The Bitcoin payment application Strike has officially announced that it has obtained a BitLicense from the New York State Department of Financial Services, allowing it to conduct cryptocurrency services in the area.Strike also previously announced the launch of a Bitcoin-backed credit limit service, enabling users to borrow fiat currency in real-time for lightning payments or bill payments. Currently, this service supports low-threshold lending and will initially launch in Georgia and Massachusetts, with plans to expand to more states in the U.S. later.

According to Jinshi citing Reuters, U.S. officials revealed on Wednesday that the U.S. military launched an attack near the coast of Sri Lanka, hitting an Iranian warship.An official stated that the attack was carried out by a U.S. submarine. Sri Lankan authorities reported that they had rescued 32 people from the ship and recovered several bodies.

The Bitcoin payment app Strike announced on the X platform the official launch of its Bitcoin-backed credit line service, allowing users to borrow fiat currency in real-time for lightning payments or bill payments without needing to sell Bitcoin to access cash liquidity. Currently, the service supports low-threshold lending and will initially launch in Georgia and Massachusetts, with plans to expand to more states in the U.S.

According to Jin Ten, U.S. President Trump stated regarding the Iranian airstrike actions, "We haven't started hitting them hard yet. The real wave is yet to come. The real wave of strikes will be coming soon."Trump also stated, "If necessary, we do not rule out the possibility of U.S. troops being stationed in Iran."

According to CoinDesk, monitoring by Elliptic shows that within minutes of the first airstrikes by the U.S. on Tehran, the outflow of cryptocurrency from Iran's largest exchange, Nobitex, surged by 700%. Elliptic reported that Nobitex processed $7.2 billion in cryptocurrency transactions in 2025 and has over 11 million users.The flow of funds indicates that cryptocurrencies are being sent to overseas exchanges, which may represent a capital outflow to evade the traditional banking system. Additionally, Elliptic had previously detected a spike in outflows on January 9 due to protests and internet blackouts. After the airstrikes, Bitcoin briefly fell below $64,000 before recovering to around $65,500, while Ethereum dropped to around $1,930.

According to the Wall Street Journal, regional officials have stated that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf countries are unlikely to endure Iranian strikes in the long term. One possible option is to begin targeting missile and drone launch sites within Iran.UAE Foreign Affairs Advisor Gargash stated, "We should not adopt a passive defense strategy, but rather be more proactive in our defense. We must examine the types of conflicts that are emerging. At the same time, we have certain capabilities ourselves, and our philosophy is that our responses should match the severity of the conflict." On Sunday, the UAE closed its embassy in Tehran and withdrew its diplomats from Iran.

According to Jinshi reports, last weekend, due to the closure of global traditional financial markets, a large amount of capital flowed into prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the subsequent impacts of the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran through these platforms. However, this capital frenzy quickly evolved into a public opinion storm.On Saturday, a wave of skepticism emerged on the social platform X, accusing some insiders of profiting significantly in the prediction markets by leveraging their advance knowledge of military strikes. In response to the criticism, a White House spokesperson argued to the media that "the only special interest guiding the Trump administration's decisions is the best interest of the American people." In fact, actions against insider betting leveraging international conflicts have already been initiated in some regions around the world.In the face of accusations, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended that they would refund all fees incurred by users participating in the controversial markets, and positions established before Khamenei's death would be forcibly settled at the last trading price. However, this "forced liquidation" decision did not quell the storm; many users instead complained on social media that they had been misled by the platform.

In the early morning of March 1, local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued Announcement No. 3. The announcement stated that the third and fourth waves of missile strikes are underway as part of the "Real Commitment 4" military operation, with Iran using more advanced missiles than ever before. The targets of the operation are military and security objectives of the United States and Israel, with this strike being more intense and severe. The announcement pointed out that the targets include: the naval base at Haifa Port in Israel, Israeli warships at the Haifa dock, the Ramat David Air Force Base, the Israeli Ministry of Defense, the Beit Shemesh military-industrial complex, and the Ashdod military-industrial complex.The statement indicated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran is prepared to use Iranian missiles and drones to attack fixed and moving targets of the enemy in the region. (CCTV)

According to Israel's Channel 12, an Israeli source stated that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has died in the Israeli military strike against Iran, and his body has reportedly been found in the rubble. Relevant documents have been secured by the Israeli side and have been submitted to Prime Minister Netanyahu and senior security officials. Meanwhile, it is reported that Khamenei's son-in-law and wife have also been killed in this round of attacks.According to senior Israeli officials who spoke to Fox News Digital, Khamenei died after Israel launched an attack on Tehran, and his residence has been reduced to rubble in the strike.Iran's Tasnim News Agency and Mehr News Agency reported that the Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei is "steadfastly commanding the battlefield." Sources close to Khamenei's office stated, "I can assure you that the revolutionary leader is firmly and calmly commanding the front lines."

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, Polymarket user anoin123 had previously continued to bet that the U.S./Israel would not strike Iran, accumulating profits of over $2 million within two months.However, after the strike event occurred, anoin123 suffered a single-day loss of $6.5 million, turning from a profit of over $2 million to a loss of over $4.5 million.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a wallet created just 3 days ago purchased "YES" shares for the "U.S. strikes on Iran" event on Polymarket, with $60,800 betting on a strike occurring on February 28 and $3,000 betting on a strike occurring on March 1, currently realizing a profit of $493,500. Onchain Lens indicates that this wallet may belong to an insider.

According to Coinglass data, influenced by the U.S. strikes against Iran, the cryptocurrency market has rapidly declined, with $260 million liquidated in the past 4 hours, of which $224 million was from long positions.

According to market news, an airstrike occurred at Iran's Port of Hormuz, possibly targeting the Iranian Navy forces. The Israel Defense Forces detected missiles launched towards Israel.Iranian state media reported that the Iranian port city of Bushehr was attacked. It is currently unclear whether the Bushehr nuclear power plant was damaged.

According to Jinshi Data, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that Israel has launched a preemptive strike against Iran to eliminate threats to the nation. Missile and drone attacks on Israel are expected in the short term. The Defense Minister has declared a nationwide state of emergency and urged the public to follow the instructions of the domestic security command and stay in protected areas.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, someone created a new Polymarket wallet "dfhgdhfthrfhr" and spent $180,000 betting that the United States will not strike Iran before March 4, 2026.

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated that he is considering a limited strike against Iran.

The founder of the Bitcoin payment application Strike, Jack Mallers, posted on the X platform to respond to the adjustment of the margin call policy. He stated that the Strike loan mechanism will not fully liquidate Bitcoin collateral. When the loan falls below the maintenance margin level, the platform will only conduct partial liquidations to restore the loan to approximately 65% of a healthy loan-to-value (LTV) ratio.Jack Mallers added that this mechanism is designed to protect users' Bitcoin assets as much as possible while maintaining loan health and to give customers and Bitcoin prices more time to recover. Based on this mechanism, the liquidation ratio of Strike's overall loan book remains in the low single-digit range of the total outstanding loans, approximately 1%--3%.