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BTC $65,340.66 -3.57%
ETH $1,816.39 -4.64%
BNB $625.30 -5.32%
XRP $1.21 -1.51%
SOL $71.95 -5.10%
TRX $0.3336 -0.54%
DOGE $0.0920 -2.73%
ADA $0.2034 -6.43%
BCH $245.45 -13.48%
LINK $8.33 -2.71%
HYPE $74.47 +7.16%
AAVE $74.76 -0.56%
SUI $0.8303 -0.30%
XLM $0.2121 -4.65%
ZEC $624.25 +1.53%

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QCP Capital: Strategy of selling coins combined with macro pressure, Bitcoin fell over 11% weekly

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party's parliamentary alliance submitted a Web3 policy proposal, calling for the inclusion of blockchain in the national strategy

The Liberal Democratic Party's Blockchain Promotion Parliamentary Alliance in Japan submitted a policy proposal to Finance Minister Katsuyuki Kitayama, calling for the clear inclusion of blockchain and Web3 in the national strategy. The proposal covers multiple areas including tax reform, cryptocurrency ETFs, leveraged trading regulation, responses to unregistered operators, cryptocurrency strategy, and trade logistics. Among them, the proposal suggests further research on the choice mechanism for "declaration separation taxation" and "withholding separation taxation" for crypto assets, and explores the tax treatment methods for exchanges and inheritance of crypto assets.In terms of derivatives regulation, the proposal believes that the current 2x leverage limit for individual cryptocurrency trading is too low and suggests gradually increasing the leverage level in conjunction with margin management systems. At the same time, the proposal also calls for a clear positioning of the cryptocurrency ETF system and strengthening law enforcement cooperation with overseas regulatory agencies. Katsuyuki Kitayama stated that he will actively promote the construction of related systems, including facilitating the implementation of cryptocurrency ETFs and researching a new tax system to be implemented in January 2028.

A man in Qingdao, China, was sentenced to 10 years and 9 months for stealing 107 BTC while "helping an acquaintance register a wallet."

Recently, the People's Procuratorate of Licang District, Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China, handled a Bitcoin theft case. The defendant, Zhang, obtained the mnemonic phrase while assisting an acquaintance in registering a virtual currency wallet, and later transferred 107 BTC in multiple transactions, equivalent to over 50 million yuan at current market prices. Zhang argued that his actions were a "protective takeover," but the prosecution found that he transferred the stolen BTC through multiple trading platforms and exchanged it for over 660,000 yuan. The Licang District Court sentenced Zhang to 10 years and 9 months in prison for theft and imposed a fine of 100,000 yuan; the second instance upheld the original judgment.Reports indicate that the prosecutor handling the case strictly adhered to laws and judicial policies, and after in-depth analysis, concluded that although China's regulatory policies deny the legal currency status of virtual currencies, they do not negate their property attributes, nor do they prohibit citizens from legally holding and circulating them. Bitcoin requires investment in computing power, funds, and other costs to acquire, which gives it economic value; rights holders can achieve exclusive control and management through private keys and mnemonic phrases, aligning with the core characteristics of "property" in criminal law, making it a target for theft. In determining the amount, since virtual currencies have no official pricing, the Licang District Procuratorate discarded market price estimates and used the actual proceeds from the crime of over 660,000 yuan as the amount for theft, ensuring accurate conviction, appropriate sentencing, and unity of guilt and punishment.

The decoupling of cryptocurrencies from U.S. stocks is intensifying, with the S&P 500 rising for nine consecutive weeks to a new high, while Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to decline on a weekly basis

Driven by optimistic expectations for an extended ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. stock and oil markets continued to strengthen this week. The S&P 500 index rose for the ninth consecutive week, setting the longest winning streak since 2023; Brent crude oil stabilized around $92 per barrel. However, the cryptocurrency market failed to follow the rise of macro risk assets. Over the past week, Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $73,445, Ethereum dropped 2.5% to $2,011, Solana decreased by 2.2%, and TRX saw a decline of 5.6%, making it one of the weakest tokens among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Market analysts believe that the cooling inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs is putting pressure on coin prices.In contrast, some small and mid-cap tokens performed remarkably well. Among them, the native token of Hyperliquid, HYPE, surged 19.4% this week to around $65, becoming the biggest highlight in the market. Previously, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) CEO Jeffrey Sprecher referred to Hyperliquid as "a bigger opportunity than Nasdaq" at the Bernstein conference, further boosting market sentiment. Additionally, BNB rose 1.9% this week, XRP increased by 0.7%, and DOGE remained basically flat.On the macro level, U.S. President Trump stated that a final decision on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum is close, but he still insists on Iran abandoning its nuclear program, handing over its enriched uranium stockpile, and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants believe that due to significant differences between the two sides on key issues, the current rebound in risk assets remains relatively fragile, and any negative news regarding the Iran negotiations could trigger a reversal in market sentiment.
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