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In the Polymarket prediction event "Bitcoin price above x dollars," the current probability of BTC being above $72,000 today is only 4%, and the probability of being above $74,000 is less than 1%; the probability of being above $70,000 is also only 81% (below the current market price).Last night, the price of Bitcoin briefly surged, rising close to $74,000, but then quickly fell back, currently fluctuating around $70,600, with the probabilities in the related prediction markets clearly cooling down.

According to Gate market data, the Dow Jones Index closed down 118.02 points on March 13, a decrease of 0.25%, at 46,559.83 points; the S&P 500 Index closed down 40.42 points, a decrease of 0.61%, at 6,632.2 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 206.62 points, a decrease of 0.93%, at 22,105.36 points.

According to Gate's market data, the three major U.S. stock indices fell before the market opened, with the Nasdaq down 0.18%, the Dow down 0.1%, and the S&P 500 down 0.16%.Among the seven major tech stocks, most were down: Apple (AAPL) down 0.03%, Microsoft (MSFT) down 0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) down 0.3%, Amazon (AMZN) down 0.24%, Nvidia (NVDA) up 0.08%, Tesla (TSLA) up 0.39%, and Meta (META) down 1.66%.

On-chain analysis models show that the current selling pressure on the Bitcoin network has dropped to a cyclical low, indicating that the market is in a clear accumulation phase. The Sell-side Risk Ratio last triggered a "distribution signal" in December 2024, when the Bitcoin price was around $107,000, and this signal has not appeared since. Data shows that the current level of selling pressure has fallen to about one-sixth of the cyclical average, with related indicators even reflecting levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market (when BTC prices were around $16,000 to $20,000).The model divides this cycle into two phases: the "strong distribution phase" from November to December 2024, with prices in the range of $64,000 to $107,000; and the current "accumulation phase" that has re-entered. The Sell-side Risk Ratio is used to measure the profit-taking activity of market participants relative to the overall network cost basis. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, it triggers a distribution signal, indicating that sellers dominate the market; when the indicator falls below the lower threshold, it triggers an accumulation signal, meaning selling pressure is extremely low. Data shows that the distribution signal in this cycle lasted a total of 37 days, covering the major range of BTC rising from $64,000 to $107,000.Since the signal closed on December 17, 2024, the market has not seen another distribution signal for about 449 consecutive days. Meanwhile, the 180-day rolling average of the Sell-side Risk Ratio has decreased from 3210 to 1913 over the past 60 days, a drop of 1297 points, and continues to decline at a rate of about 20 points per day. Historically, the range of 1500 to 2000 typically corresponds to selling pressure levels during 2019 (BTC around $3,000 to $6,000) and the mid-point of the 2022-2023 bear market (BTC around $16,000 to $20,000), but the current BTC price remains in the range of about $67,000 to $72,000, showing a clear structural divergence.Analysis indicates that this means early low-price holders have completed large-scale profit-taking in the $64,000 to $107,000 range, while those who did not sell in that range are currently choosing to hold. The model suggests that a new distribution signal may only be triggered when the Bitcoin price stabilizes above $100,000 to $110,000, accompanied by large-scale profit-taking. Overall, on-chain indicators show that the distribution phase of this cycle has ended, and the market has re-entered an accumulation state. The current overall judgment of the model on the market is "neutral to accumulation," but without new price catalysts, the market may face a prolonged period of consolidation.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, "The last time the seller risk ratio showed active selling pressure signals was in December 2024 (around $107,000), after which the signal has remained off. Currently, the model shows accumulation signals, while the selling pressure on the network has decreased to about 6 times lower than the average level of this cycle. The indicator continues to decline and has replicated the levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market, when Bitcoin prices were around $16,000-$20,000.The current cycle has gone through a distribution phase and has re-entered the accumulation phase, which is still ongoing. The 180-day rolling average has dropped to 1,913, a level that historically corresponds to bear market phases, but at that time, the corresponding price was only $16,000-$20,000, while the current price is in the $67,000-$72,000 range. The current market state is neutral with a slight accumulation bias. The main risk is: if there is a lack of price catalysts, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation, in which case the rolling average SRR indicator will continue to decline."

Ethena announced that the unbonding cooldown period for sUSDe will change to a dynamic mechanism, linked to the amount of liquid stablecoins in the USDe reserves. This means that the current unbonding period for sUSDe, which has been a fixed 7 days since the project launched, will be adjusted to just 1 day. In the future, the cooldown period will dynamically vary between 1 day and 7 days based on the composition of liquid assets in the USDe reserves.

According to Gate's market data, the three major U.S. stock indices fell before the market opened, with the Nasdaq down 0.12%, the Dow down 0.1%, and the S&P 500 down 0.13%.Most of the seven major tech stocks declined, with Apple (AAPL) down 0.09%, Microsoft (MSFT) down 0.04%, Alphabet (GOOGL) down 0.52%, Amazon (AMZN) down 0.25%, Nvidia (NVDA) up 0.1%, Tesla (TSLA) up 0.13%, and Meta (META) down 0.12%.

According to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, the selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has intensified. MARA announced a new policy allowing the sale of Bitcoin reserves and transferred 298 BTC to Cumberland; Core Scientific recently also sold 2,174 BTC.MARA's current average mining cost is about $70,027 per coin, while efficient miners can have costs as low as approximately $45,000. The purpose of the sell-offs by several mining companies includes strengthening their balance sheets and funding the expansion of AI infrastructure.

Bitget officially launched GetClaw, allowing users to start using it directly without local deployment or technical background by fully migrating the operating environment of the agent to the cloud. Previously, the use of AI trading agents typically required users to have certain technical skills or complete cumbersome local configurations. GetClaw completely eliminates this barrier through a cloud-based architecture, further lowering the threshold for using AI trading tools.In terms of functionality, GetClaw supports 24/7 market monitoring, memory of user position preferences, automatic execution of trading signals, and strategy backtesting, enabling the AI agent to continuously optimize trading decisions based on market changes and user strategies. The current early access version has opened some core features, and trading functions will be launched with the official version. By deeply integrating AI automation capabilities with the trading execution system, Bitget further promotes the transition of AI-driven trading tools from technical exploration to practical application scenarios.

Coinbase Institutional posted on social media that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric can measure whether recent buyers are selling their assets at a profit or a loss. This helps us understand whether newcomers are panic selling, a dynamic that typically flushes out "weak hands" and cleanly resets spot positions.Since late February, the SOPR metrics for short-term holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum have both shown a rebound, indicating that recent spot demand has been strong enough to absorb the selling pressure, demonstrating that market positions are more resilient.

The Chief Judge of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio, Sarah D. Morrison, ruled that there is no historical evidence indicating that Congress intended for federal law to take precedence over state regulation of sports gambling, and thus denied the preliminary injunction request filed by the prediction market platform Kalshi.Kalshi had previously sued the Ohio Casino Control Commission in an attempt to prevent it from taking enforcement action against the platform's event contracts under state gambling laws. Last year, the regulatory agency accused Kalshi of operating illegal sports gambling in Ohio.Kalshi argued that the event contracts it offers are derivatives regulated under the Commodity Exchange Act and should fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, thereby asserting that federal regulation should take precedence over state gambling laws.However, the judge stated that there is no evidence from historical and legislative context to suggest that Congress intended for the law to supersede state sports gambling regulations, noting that when the Dodd-Frank Act amended relevant laws in 2010, sports gambling was still widely restricted in the U.S.Kalshi announced that it would appeal the ruling. The case is seen as an important test of the legal status of prediction markets, and its outcome could affect the future compliance prospects of other prediction platforms in the U.S., including Polymarket.

The Eigen Foundation has released an EIGEN transparency update reminder on platform X, disclosing that in the coming days, it will transfer EIGEN between wallets controlled by the foundation. This move is part of its regular custody and fund management operations.The Eigen Foundation emphasizes that the aforementioned operation is merely an internal transfer and does not involve token unlocks, changes in governance arrangements, or any planned sale activities.

The on-chain data analysis platform Coinglass posted on platform X, indicating that Bitcoin is forming strong buying liquidity support. Currently, over $100 million in buy orders has accumulated in the $65,000 to $65,150 range, creating a significant short-term support area.At the same time, order book data shows that there is noticeable selling pressure around $68,000, which may become an important resistance level for Bitcoin in the short term.

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens, BlackRock recently deposited 2,200 BTC (worth approximately $149 million) and 2,417 ETH (worth approximately $4.84 million) into Coinbase, totaling about $154 million. On-chain data also indicates that more assets may be transferred in subsequently.

Matrixport's analysis states that since October, the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase has consistently been lower than on other global exchanges, creating a noticeable discount. Although this price difference is somewhat influenced by fluctuations in USDT prices, the long-term discount still reflects a more pronounced selling tendency among investors on the Coinbase platform.The imbalance in capital flows from the U.S. market may be one of the important reasons for the continued pressure on the market in recent months. However, when the price of Bitcoin briefly fell to around $60,000, the discount began to narrow and has now basically returned to neutral levels. We previously mentioned that this kind of correction often indicates that most of the selling pressure has been gradually absorbed by the market, and the trading status of Bitcoin is expected to improve accordingly.Recent price trends seem to confirm this judgment. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks and the overall weak performance of risk assets, Bitcoin's overall trend remains relatively robust. This may indicate that the earlier phase of heavy selling pressure is gradually coming to an end, and the market environment is expected to see marginal improvements.

Famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, released a chart suggesting that the potential target price for crude oil futures could reach $214. If this target is achieved, it would lead to a surge in airline fuel costs, severely impacting profits.

According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market is generally declining. Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.63%, briefly dropping below $66,000; Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 1.15%, falling below $2,000. Only the SocialFi sector remained relatively strong, rising by 0.53% in 24 hours, with Chiliz (CHZ) increasing by 6.3%.In other sectors, the Layer2 sector led the market decline, dropping by 1.85% in 24 hours, with Mantle (MNT) falling by 3.61%; the PayFi sector decreased by 1.17%, but Trust Wallet (TWT) rose by 1.91%; the CeFi sector fell by 0.87%, while Aster (ASTER) increased by 0.15%; the Meme sector declined by 0.69%, with Siren (SIREN) rising against the trend by 10.8%; the Layer1 sector dropped by 0.67%, with Polkadot (DOT) surging by 1.66% during the day; the DeFi sector decreased by 0.6%, with Morpho Token (MORPHO) remaining relatively strong, rising by 3.12%; the cryptocurrency sector index reflecting historical market trends shows that the ssiRWA and ssiSocialFi indices rose by 1.8% and 1.35%, respectively, while the ssiAI index fell by 2.47%.

According to CoinDesk, data from RWA.xyz shows that the on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, has surpassed $25 billion, nearly quadrupling from about $6.4 billion a year ago.Currently, six types of assets have an on-chain scale exceeding $1 billion (including U.S. Treasury bonds, commodities, private credit, institutional alternative investment funds, corporate bonds, and non-U.S. government debt), but only 12% of the RWA-backed stablecoin supply has entered DeFi protocols.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on platform X, stating that Bitcoin may have entered the mid-stage of the current bear market cycle. The NUPL--MVRV harmonic composite indicator has reached 0.33, while historical cycle bottoms typically occur around the -0.5 range. The chart shows that the bear market cycle is beginning to trend upwards, indicating that extreme sell-off conditions are becoming milder. However, the indicator is still well above the historical bottom region, meaning that a comprehensive market sell-off has not yet been confirmed.

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on social media: "Bitcoin is currently in the mid-stage of this cycle. The NUPL--MVRV harmonic composite indicator is at 0.33, while the bottoms in previous cycles typically occur close to -0.5.This indicator also shows that the cycle lows are gradually moving up, indicating that the extreme panic selling in the market is diminishing. However, the indicator is still significantly above the historical bottom region, so the market has not yet confirmed a comprehensive capitulation sell-off."