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BTC $77,400.88 -1.29%
ETH $2,142.81 -2.26%
BNB $643.03 -1.80%
XRP $1.39 -2.09%
SOL $85.18 -1.94%
TRX $0.3560 -0.15%
DOGE $0.1052 -5.93%
ADA $0.2508 -2.25%
BCH $357.47 -13.64%
LINK $9.52 -2.72%
HYPE $45.62 +6.46%
AAVE $89.41 -1.79%
SUI $1.04 -2.24%
XLM $0.1480 -2.66%
ZEC $524.49 +1.78%

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Data: Four on-chain signals indicate that Bitcoin supply is tightening and selling pressure is exhausted

Binance Research released a chart analysis this week indicating that four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted.Long-term dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved for over a year, significantly higher than 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024 and has since remained close to historical highs.SLRV indicator: The short-term to long-term holder value ratio is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory, indicating a lack of market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate the supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering the current region.Exchange balances: Since peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, exchange balances have dropped to 15%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges, and seller supply has fallen to a six-year low.STH MVRV indicator: Since November 2024, the BTC short-term holder MVRV has mostly remained below 1, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, this ratio has rebounded to 1, and short-term holders are beginning to reaccumulate unrealized gains. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately; historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.

Analysis: Bhutan denies selling Bitcoin, on-chain data points to approximately $1 billion in suspected BTC outflows causing controversy

According to CoinDesk, on-chain analysis firm Arkham Data shows that over the past year, wallets associated with Bhutan have seen outflows of approximately $1 billion in Bitcoin, with funds flowing to multiple trading platforms and trading institutions, reducing their holdings from about 13,000 BTC to around 3,100 BTC.Arkham speculates that there may be ongoing selling behavior, and if the trend continues, the relevant addresses may be cleared of holdings before October 2026. However, Bhutan's sovereign fund Druk Holding and Investments (DHI) stated that "they do not recall any recent Bitcoin sales," did not respond to specific changes in on-chain addresses, and did not confirm the current holding size, only emphasizing that there are no additional comments.The report points out that some of the fund inflow paths are related to institutions such as Galaxy Digital and OKX, leading the market to interpret this as selling or over-the-counter trading behavior, but there are also possibilities of transfers into custody, collateralization, or structured trading that do not involve selling. Additionally, some trading institution personnel stated that there has been no clear selling recently.Furthermore, Bhutan's previous commitment to a reserve of 10,000 BTC for the "Gelephu Mindfulness City" project has also been questioned due to potential sell-offs. Currently, there is still significant disagreement regarding its actual holdings and mining operations.
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