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Circle had previously banned accounts of crypto funds supported by Tether, but later received an arbitration ruling in support

According to the Financial Times, based on the latest publicly available court documents, the stablecoin issuer Circle had banned the crypto fund Heka Funds, supported by Tether, at the end of 2023 due to suspicions that it was manipulating the market through large-scale arbitrage operations and helping Tether expand its market share. The documents show that during the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis in 2023, USDC briefly fell below the $1 peg. Heka continuously bought discounted USDC in large quantities and redeemed it for cash from Circle. Circle believed that Heka's redemption scale far exceeded that of other market participants and suspected that the related funds ultimately flowed to Tether to help expand its USDT market size.Arbitration documents also revealed that Tether had invested about $800 million in Heka, accounting for about 75% of the fund's assets, and waived the stablecoin minting fees. The arbitrator found that Heka did not truthfully disclose its supportive relationship with Tether and was aware that the related information would raise concerns for Circle. In 2024, Heka initiated arbitration due to its account being frozen, claiming approximately $49 million in lost profits. In February of this year, the arbitrator dismissed all of Heka's claims, determining that it had engaged in malicious behavior and ordered it to pay Circle about $166,000 in attorney and expert fees. Heka denied any market manipulation and stated that it had never been subject to regulatory investigation; Circle declined to comment, and Tether did not respond to media requests for comment.

Wintermute: Bitcoin shows "bearish but not falling" bottoming characteristics, key resistance level at $67,250

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.

Standard Chartered Bank: Maintains Bitcoin target price of $100,000, Strategy of selling coins is not a worsening risk

According to The Block, Standard Chartered stated that it maintains its price prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026. The recent market decline triggered by movements related to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is not due to a deterioration of the company's balance sheet, but rather a failure of the strategic adjustments to be fully understood by the market.Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, pointed out in a report that Strategy's recent behavior is disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market had previously accepted the narrative of the company "never selling Bitcoin," but now Strategy seems to be shifting towards a more complex capital operation model. Whether this change can be clearly communicated will determine when market pressure eases.Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, accounting for over 4% of the total supply of 21 million Bitcoins. Between 2020 and mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (market value/Bitcoin asset value) has remained above 1, allowing the company to finance Bitcoin purchases through stock issuance and achieve shareholder value growth.The commitment to "never sell Bitcoin" is the core of this model gaining market recognition. However, as the current mNAV approaches 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is weakening. Kendrick believes that Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation tool" to a "Bitcoin credit support tool," meaning it holds Bitcoin as the credit basis for its perpetual preferred stock STRC.STRC currently has a scale of about $10 billion, making it the largest financial instrument launched by Strategy, with an annualized dividend yield of 12%, paid in cash every half month, and its price maintained around the $100 par value through an interest rate adjustment mechanism. Standard Chartered stated that STRC is currently trading at about $90, while Strategy has a dollar reserve of about $2.55 billion for paying dividends, which can cover approximately 17.4 months of dividend expenses.Kendrick stated that the policy adjustment allowing the sale of Bitcoin does not necessarily mean the company will continue to sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize the STRC price, Strategy may not actually need to sell Bitcoin. He likened this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "take action no matter what": restoring market confidence alone may mean that actual intervention might not occur at all.
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