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BTC $76,748.14 -0.89%
ETH $2,113.35 -1.60%
BNB $639.75 -0.54%
XRP $1.37 -1.66%
SOL $84.52 -1.02%
TRX $0.3551 -0.26%
DOGE $0.1039 -1.49%
ADA $0.2490 -0.77%
BCH $382.83 +2.58%
LINK $9.55 -0.03%
HYPE $47.40 +3.74%
AAVE $88.29 -1.41%
SUI $1.05 +0.88%
XLM $0.1448 -2.27%
ZEC $553.63 +5.66%

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Data: Bitcoin spot and perpetual contract selling pressure surges, options market shifts to bearish protection

Glassnode stated that the signals from various Bitcoin derivatives markets are diverging, and the overall structure is beginning to weaken. A significant shift in selling pressure has been observed, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading plummeting by 848.7%. Nevertheless, spot trading volume has increased by 4.2%, indicating a rise in trading activity, but this may stem more from trading interest rather than bullish sentiment. Open interest has slightly decreased by 2.9%, reflecting a cautious attitude towards leverage in an uncertain environment. However, the funding rate paid by the long side has surged by 136.6%, showing a rebound in demand for long positions and an increase in bullish sentiment among traders. Yet, the CVD for perpetual contracts has sharply declined by 278.7%, highlighting significant selling pressure and indicating that bearish sentiment still dominates.The 25-Delta Skew for options has risen by 42.75%, as traders seek more downside protection, with the market clearly turning bearish. Meanwhile, open interest and volatility spreads for options have increased by 1.7% and 124.52% respectively, indicating heightened market participation and increased expectations for future price volatility. The MVRV of the US spot ETF has decreased by 6.1%, with net flows for the ETF deteriorating sharply, reflecting a decline in institutional confidence. However, ETF trading volume has risen by 7%. On-chain activity presents a mixed picture: the number of active addresses has decreased, while the adjusted transfer volume has increased, suggesting relatively low network usage, but large amounts of capital continue to move.Overall, as momentum, spot demand, and speculative positions weaken across the board, the Bitcoin market structure is beginning to soften. Options traders are increasingly hedging against downside risks, liquidity and profitability indicators continue to cool, and the market structure remains relatively stable, but stable liquidity and the strength of long-term holders still provide some resilience to the market.

Data: Four on-chain signals indicate that Bitcoin supply is tightening and selling pressure is exhausted

Binance Research released a chart analysis this week indicating that four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted.Long-term dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved for over a year, significantly higher than 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024 and has since remained close to historical highs.SLRV indicator: The short-term to long-term holder value ratio is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory, indicating a lack of market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate the supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering the current region.Exchange balances: Since peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, exchange balances have dropped to 15%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges, and seller supply has fallen to a six-year low.STH MVRV indicator: Since November 2024, the BTC short-term holder MVRV has mostly remained below 1, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, this ratio has rebounded to 1, and short-term holders are beginning to reaccumulate unrealized gains. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately; historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.

Analysis: Bhutan denies selling Bitcoin, on-chain data points to approximately $1 billion in suspected BTC outflows causing controversy

According to CoinDesk, on-chain analysis firm Arkham Data shows that over the past year, wallets associated with Bhutan have seen outflows of approximately $1 billion in Bitcoin, with funds flowing to multiple trading platforms and trading institutions, reducing their holdings from about 13,000 BTC to around 3,100 BTC.Arkham speculates that there may be ongoing selling behavior, and if the trend continues, the relevant addresses may be cleared of holdings before October 2026. However, Bhutan's sovereign fund Druk Holding and Investments (DHI) stated that "they do not recall any recent Bitcoin sales," did not respond to specific changes in on-chain addresses, and did not confirm the current holding size, only emphasizing that there are no additional comments.The report points out that some of the fund inflow paths are related to institutions such as Galaxy Digital and OKX, leading the market to interpret this as selling or over-the-counter trading behavior, but there are also possibilities of transfers into custody, collateralization, or structured trading that do not involve selling. Additionally, some trading institution personnel stated that there has been no clear selling recently.Furthermore, Bhutan's previous commitment to a reserve of 10,000 BTC for the "Gelephu Mindfulness City" project has also been questioned due to potential sell-offs. Currently, there is still significant disagreement regarding its actual holdings and mining operations.
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