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Analysis: The Monte Carlo model predicts that the price of Bitcoin will peak at $713,000 within 6 months

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, although the cryptocurrency fear and greed index on March 10 continues to show "extreme fear," a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025.Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant analyzed Bitcoin prices using Monte Carlo simulations and provided a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risk through random sampling. It can generate various possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates the average final price of Bitcoin to be $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, from a broader perspective, Bitcoin prices are expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (the 95th percentile return).However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model largely relies on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, Monte Carlo analysis carries uncertainty akin to "rolling dice." Last week, Quant also emphasized the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market cap and the global liquidity index, suggesting that the total market cap could reach a new high of over $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.

After SBF unexpectedly gave an interview to Tucker Carlson in prison, his crisis public relations manager resigned

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block citing Business Insider, after the unannounced release of an interview between FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and Tucker Carlson on Thursday, SBF's crisis PR manager has resigned. Mark Botnick started representing SBF after the collapse of his cryptocurrency exchange FTX in November 2022, and he resigned on Thursday after learning about the interview. This is the second interview SBF has given since breaking his two-year public silence after being incarcerated. These interviews seem to be part of his attempt to seek a presidential pardon. In both interviews, SBF praised President Trump, criticized the previous Biden administration, and argued that he began to take the Republican Party more seriously after failing to engage with former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.SBF was perhaps best known before his arrest as a billionaire practicing "effective altruism," having donated large sums to Democratic politicians. From the billions in funds collapsing at FTX to the year he faced court proceedings, SBF has given countless media interviews, sometimes getting himself into trouble. On one occasion, he even showed a reporter his ex-girlfriend's diary, which led to his imprisonment to prevent potential witness tampering. Botnick reportedly worked with SBF during this time. It is said that the PR manager was also caught off guard when SBF posted on X about the Trump administration's attempts to fire federal employees.

SBF continues to seek clemency on the Tucker Carlson podcast

ChainCatcher news, according to Coindesk, former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried recently appeared on the Tucker Carlson podcast, marking the latest stop on his media "image rehabilitation tour." During the show, SBF claimed that part of the reason he was sentenced to 25 years in prison was due to his increasingly close ties with the Republican Party before his arrest."In 2020, I was center-left and donated to Biden's campaign," SBF said, "but by the end of 2022, my private donations to the Republican Party were roughly equal to those to the Democrats. This started to become known around the time of the FTX collapse, and it may have played a role."In fact, SBF had donated over $40 million to 196 members of Congress, including senior members of both the Republican and Democratic parties, which accounted for one-third of the legislators receiving funds from him. He also criticized former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and the regulatory approach to the crypto industry during the interview.A Google document revealed during SBF's trial showed that he had considered various ways to rehabilitate his image, including "publicly criticizing political correctness" and "going on the Tucker Carlson show to declare himself a Republican." This strategy is now being implemented against the backdrop of the Republican Party controlling Washington.Reportedly, SBF's parents—former Stanford Law School professors Barbara Fried and Joseph Bankman—are meeting with lawyers and others within Trump's circle, trying to secure a presidential pardon for their son. SBF recently also made comments on social media about the difficulties of layoffs, which were criticized by the crypto community as an attempt to curry favor with the Trump administration.
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