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"Fed's megaphone": The Federal Reserve is considering adjusting its balance sheet reduction plan to address the debt ceiling challenge

ChainCatcher news, according to Wall Street Journal reporter and "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos, Federal Reserve officials will consider adjusting their $6.8 trillion asset reduction policy. For the past three years, the Fed has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities accumulated during previous stimulus programs, including measures to stabilize the market during the pandemic in 2020.Currently, the Fed may choose to pause or slow down this tapering process. This move aims to avoid a repeat of the situation in 2019, when balance sheet reduction led to stress in the overnight funding market, forcing the Fed to pivot and expand its holdings.Roberto Perli, the executive in charge of overseeing the balance sheet at the New York Fed, stated this month that pausing the tapering would be a "tactical decision" that "would not change the ultimate goal." RBC Capital Markets interest rate strategist Blake Gwinn pointed out that pausing the tapering makes sense because "the debt ceiling will distort these signals."Currently, the Fed allows up to $25 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature each month without reinvestment. As holdings decrease, bank reserves also decline. However, the debt ceiling issue could interfere with this process, as the Fed is also the government's banker.Analysts expect that the Fed may pause the tapering for several months until the debt ceiling is raised and the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance before resuming. Gwinn stated that if the economy worsens, this "pause" could also turn into a "stop," prompting officials to terminate this form of policy tightening.
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