Why hasn't BTC dropped under geopolitical conflicts? The answer provided by Binance's funding structure and CVD

Author: Murphy

Due to the close correlation between Coinbase's BTC balance and ETF net inflows/outflows, I will focus more on Binance's data as a closer observation of real demand (non-ETF) in the short term.

From Figure 1, we can see two distinct periods of balance increase during 10/21 - 11/22 in 2025 and 1/15 - 2/20 in 2026, which correspond to two significant declines in BTC. After November 22, 2025, the balance decreased by 34,145 coins, while the BTC price stabilized, shifting from a rapid decline to a consolidation + weak rebound.

Figure 1: BTC Balance on Binance

This mirrors the current trend: from 2/20/2026 to now, Binance's BTC balance has decreased by 25,135 coins. This period coincides with military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, during which the BTC price has remained relatively stable, showing neither significant drops nor rises.

Do these BTC transfers out of Binance represent real demand? Personally, I believe "yes," or rather, "most of them do."

We can see structural differences from the "net transfer volume by scale." During this period, the main transfers out were not from super large holders with single transactions over $10 million, but rather from groups in the $1 million - $10 million range.

Figure 2: Net Transfer Volume on Binance (by Scale)

We know that transfers from super large holders often involve institutional behaviors such as market makers and custodians, while the $1 million - $10 million range is more inclined towards high-net-worth investors and individual whales accumulating chips.

At the same time, we can see a very steep curve in Binance's BTC spot trading volume deviation (CVD). CVD measures the net difference between spot buy and sell trading volumes, particularly highlighting the volume difference when buyers or sellers actively initiate trades.

Figure 3: BTC Spot Trading Volume Deviation (Binance)

The algorithm I used here is the 30-day average compared to the 90-day median deviation. A larger time scale can smooth out the disturbances caused by daily fluctuations. Therefore, a steep curve indicates that active buying in the spot market has been significantly stronger during this period.

This also somewhat confirms the above speculation that the current situation leans more towards real on-site demand, rather than market maker behavior. Additionally, the recent USDC/USDT exchange rate has fallen from a high to below 1, indicating stronger demand using USDT as purchasing power.

This explains why, despite ongoing military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran and employment data intensifying market concerns about economic stagnation/recession, BTC's price has remained stable overall.

Of course, these are just short-term data performances. If we shift our perspective to a higher dimension, we find that on a larger scale, CVD is still overall in a downward phase, similar to the trend before May 2022.

Figure 4: BTC Spot Trading Volume Deviation (Binance)

After May 2022, the CVD curve began to diverge from the price, with the lows getting higher, moving from a severe deviation from the 90-day median to getting closer, indicating that the trend of active buying is starting to recover, and demand is strongly returning. Of course, this will be a long transformation process.

Combining this with the cautious attitude displayed by on-chain whale entities towards macro certainty we observed a few days ago, my viewpoint is:

• In the short term: The phase of demand support may keep BTC in a consolidation or weak rebound trend;

• In the long cycle observation: Overall, it is still in a downward trend;

• In the medium-term outlook: The current demand recovery is still in the early stages, and the medium-term may need to undergo a longer structural repair process.