Why are more and more people choosing to leave the Web3 industry recently?

Author: Blockchain Knight

"When the tide goes out, you find out who’s been swimming naked." Using Buffett's words to describe the current Crypto market is probably the best description. Over the past period, there have been scattered reports about XXX "withdrawing from the circle." These reports are not so much complaints or grievances but rather expressions of the current state of the industry.

As for why these individuals choose to leave the industry, I have roughly tracked a few main reasons.

First and foremost, many have left due to the bleak market conditions or the changes brought about by the market, forcing some to temporarily exit the industry in search of "new life." Secondly, Web3 has been in a somewhat unappreciated "pathological" growth phase over the past year or two, leading some value creators to leave this field because they cannot see genuine value growth. Additionally, some have noticed the rise of AI and believe that Web3 has become a thing of the past, prompting them to pursue new blue ocean markets.

Of course, the reasons vary significantly when viewed at the individual level, but none of these reasons can transform the local into the general. After all, most people in the market still choose to remain observant or continue to build, as this industry, which has developed for over a decade, is not facing such a predicament for the first time.

The departure of some influential KOLs may seem to affect many people's mindsets. However, I believe that this stage is the true test for Builders. Setting aside the superficial restlessness, we need to observe more changes in the industry or things that have yet to be changed. I will briefly summarize from the following three aspects.

Has the Web3 industry moved from blue ocean to red ocean?

According to a research report released by BTC financial services company River in March, only 4% of the global population currently holds BTC, with the highest proportion of BTC holders in the United States, where about 14% of people own BTC. From a developmental stage perspective, the current BTC adoption rate is comparable to the internet in 1990 or mobile social in 2005.

From this simple data analysis, we can see that the adoption rate of digital assets, led by BTC, is still in its early stages, far from being a so-called red ocean market. Even from an industry influence perspective, traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have only just entered the arena. One must wonder, would they foolishly come in as the ones left holding the bag?

From a logical and data analysis standpoint, we must admit that if digital assets are the future direction of development or if Web3 is the intersection of the internet and AI, then this race is likely just transitioning from the starting point to the midpoint, with a long way to go.

Is the Web3 market left with only extravagant MEME narratives?

Of course, for many value creators in this industry, the most criticized aspect over the past year has been the explosive popularity of MEMEs. MEMEs have attracted too much attention, and as a result, many newcomers to the industry have faced a cleansing, even losing confidence in the industry. However, as I mentioned in a previous Weekly, MEMEs are evolving and need new recovery growth after the bubble, which may bring value to the industry.

Moreover, we should not only focus on some superficial hot changes; builders are still building, and valuable projects are still seeking breakthroughs. From the changes in the number of active developers over the past year, we can see that despite a decline, the number remains relatively high.

Although the market currently appears quiet and lacks a groundbreaking narrative like DeFi from the previous cycle, looking back at the past from the present is always calm and full of opportunities. However, looking at the future from the present feels less certain. But isn't this the law of development and change for any phenomenon?

Even looking back at the Web3 industry in 2018, it was still extremely poor, even worse than now by several times, but this did not hinder the subsequent explosive growth. We need time and patience to wait for the process from quantitative change to qualitative change.

Will the Web3 market continue to "fall endlessly"?

Finally, the question of price arises. Over 90% of people feel that this cycle is significantly different from previous ones and lacks much similarity, leading many "boat-keeping" predictions to become cannon fodder. However, if the concept of cycles is still valid, then we are likely still within this cycle, just without the previous frenzy of widespread increases.

Recently, due to issues with GS, U.S. stocks plummeted, evaporating nearly $6.5 trillion in market value in two days. The three major U.S. stock indices recorded their largest two-day drop and largest weekly drop since March 2020, which also triggered extreme market conditions in the global financial market. Whether this volatility can improve in the short term remains to be seen cautiously.

So, when BTC has already retraced nearly 30% and the financial market is facing a once-in-several-years upheaval, can the entire Crypto market remain unscathed? Perhaps this is a difficult question to answer.

However, the earliest economists, also known as the "God of Wealth," Fan Li, had a classic saying worth pondering: "When prices are extremely high, they will fall; when prices are extremely low, they will rise; when prices are viewed as worthless, they will be sought after like jewels." Perhaps we are currently in a subtle moment of "seeing everything as worthless."

Will BTC eventually reach $500,000 each? Seven years ago, saying BTC would reach 1 million yuan each sounded like a joke, but now it seems not far off. Living in the present requires facing reality, but when facing the future, one must maintain cautious optimism. We are always on the road, always building.