Telegram founder regains freedom, TON announces $400 million financing, development dilemma may迎转机

Author: Nancy, PANews

Once upon a time, the TON ecosystem rapidly rose to prominence with the strong traffic support from Telegram, thriving in an atmosphere where "traffic equals value." However, as the traffic dividend gradually faded, the curtain of reality was torn open, and the growth engine of the TON ecosystem began to slow down. A singular narrative logic, imbalanced resource allocation, external shocks, and market cycle fluctuations have plunged the TON ecosystem into a period of growing pains.

At present, TON may welcome a turning point after the retreat of traffic, with news of a $400 million financing round backed by top venture capitalists and favorable developments following its exclusive binding with Telegram, bringing new growth expectations for TON.

Secured $400 Million Financing, Exclusive Telegram Traffic

On March 20, the Open Network Foundation (TON Foundation) announced that it had secured a financing round exceeding $400 million, with investors including Sequoia Capital, Ribbit Capital, Benchmark, Kingsway, Vy Capital, Draper Associates, Libertus Capital, and SkyBridge among several well-known venture capital firms. It is reported that this financing was not completed through traditional equity or cash forms, but rather through the purchase of TON tokens, which is seen by outsiders as an acknowledgment of TON's growth potential.

Public information shows that prior to this, TON had completed six rounds of financing, mostly through over-the-counter (OTC) transactions. In terms of investment scale, the last publicly disclosed financing amount was $30 million, while this fundraising capability has significantly increased, with the $400 million financing scale setting a historical investment record for TON. Notably, this round of financing attracted participation from several top Western venture capital firms, whose capital backgrounds are very strong and whose past achievements add more imaginative space to TON's narrative.

For example, Ribbit Capital, as a venture capital firm focused on fintech and crypto, has successfully backed industry giants like Revolut, Nubank, Coinbase, and Robinhood; Benchmark has made precise investments in well-known companies like eBay and Instagram; and Sequoia Capital's investment portfolio is also very broad, covering star projects like Stripe, Nubank, Klarna, Fireblocks, and StarkWare.

For TON, this round of financing is far more significant than the funds themselves; the collective backing of traditional Western capital releases a signal of mainstream recognition for TON, especially considering the uncertainties brought to TON's development by regulatory pressures on Telegram in the past.

In addition to gaining capital endorsement, TON has also welcomed favorable news at the ecological level. Although TON had previously separated from Telegram due to regulatory difficulties, the two parties have now re-established a deep binding. In January of this year, Pavel Durov publicly stated that TON would become Telegram's exclusive blockchain partner. As part of this exclusive partnership, all Telegram mini-apps must migrate to the TON ecosystem, and TON tokens will become the exclusive payment asset for all Telegram chat services.

Telegram's strong traffic support will provide more development space for TON. According to the latest disclosure from Pavel Durov, Telegram now has over 1 billion monthly active users, making it the second-largest messaging app in the world (excluding China's WeChat). User activity is also on the rise, with each user opening Telegram an average of 21 times a day and using it for 41 minutes daily. Meanwhile, Telegram's revenue has grown significantly, reaching $547 million in profit in 2024. Furthermore, Telegram continues to refine its products, with the platform constantly optimizing user experience, such as recently announcing the third major update of the year, enhancing video features and AI sticker search, and planning to introduce transaction and revenue features in self-hosted crypto wallets, along with a loyalty program for TON holders to further promote the TON ecosystem.

Recently, Pavel Durov's return has also injected new confidence and vitality into TON. Durov is seen as a core driver of TON, and his personal situation directly affects community confidence and the pace of ecological development. Last August, he was arrested in France due to Telegram's alleged insufficient regulation of illegal content, which temporarily undermined market confidence, leading to a sharp decline in TVL and token prices. However, recent adjustments by French authorities to judicial oversight conditions have allowed him to return to his long-term residence in Dubai, which has warmed the sentiment within the TON community. After Durov's return, he has been active, such as spending 5,000 TON to acquire the "elonmusk" username on Telegram, and the AI robot Grok developed by his xAI has now landed on Telegram, offering free access to Premium subscribers.

Strong financial support, backing from top venture capitalists, deep binding with the Telegram ecosystem, and Durov's return are all factors that have collectively driven the market's high optimism towards the TON narrative.

Ecosystem Heat Wave Retreats, Multiple Challenges Urgently Need Resolution

However, at this stage, the TON ecosystem still faces severe challenges. Over the past year, several key indicators of the TON ecosystem have shown a significant downward trend, gradually entering a cooling period from its previous prosperity.

Data from Artemis shows that over the past year, the price of TON tokens has dropped over 54.8% from its peak, with market capitalization significantly shrinking from a peak of $25.2 billion. Meanwhile, the total value locked (TVL) in the TON ecosystem has also experienced a sharp decline, plummeting from a high of over $770 million to the current $170 million, a drop of 77.9%.

The decline in on-chain activity further highlights the challenges facing the TON ecosystem. According to Artemis data, the number of daily active addresses on TON has sharply decreased from a peak of 2.5 million to the current 137,000, a drop of over 94.5%. At the same time, daily trading volume has fallen from a peak of $2.3 billion to the current $320 million, a decline of 86.1%. These sharp declines clearly outline the decline in internal economic vitality within the TON ecosystem, with user participation and trading activity significantly shrinking.

The current predicament of the TON ecosystem is intertwined with multiple factors. On one hand, TON's early reliance on mini-apps and games within the Telegram ecosystem quickly attracted a large amount of traffic due to the social platform's vast user base. However, this growth model based on short-term popularity has proven difficult to sustain as the wealth effect weakens and user novelty fades, losing its key driving force. Particularly, early mechanisms like "Tap To Earn" attracted many users but ultimately failed to effectively convert them into long-term stable participants in the ecosystem, leading to a rapid depletion of traffic dividends.

On the other hand, TON's ecological narrative primarily revolves around the social attributes of Telegram and mini-games, which, compared to other public chains, shows a clear lack of diversification in areas such as DeFi, AI, and DePIN, resulting in relatively weak competitiveness. From DeFiLlama's tracking of TON's TVL distribution, over the past month, only the liquid staking protocol Tonstakers has a TVL exceeding $100 million, and there are only 13 projects with TVL in the range of millions to tens of millions of dollars, highlighting the high concentration of TON ecosystem projects and the shortcomings in diversified development. Moreover, TON's technical development has a high threshold, with its unique programming language and architectural design being unfriendly to developers, leading to slow progress in project development within the ecosystem and making it difficult to attract more quality teams, further limiting the ecosystem's diversity and innovation capacity.

In addition, the uneven distribution of resources within the TON ecosystem has exacerbated its predicament. As previously mentioned, TON's market promotion and resource investment have also been concentrated on Telegram mini-games, including Catizen, Notcoin, and Hamster Kombat, which achieved great success through viral spread on Telegram in their early stages, but similar phenomena have not been successfully replicated in other areas of TON. At the same time, due to the concentration of a large amount of resources on a few leading applications, other small and medium-sized projects struggle to gain market exposure and narrative support, making it difficult to share the attention of users and investors. This imbalance not only leads to an overly singular development of the TON ecosystem but also weakens its risk resistance. Coupled with changes in the overall market environment and external competitive pressures, TON's predicament has further intensified.

In summary, whether TON can open a new growth curve depends not only on the continued empowerment of external traffic but also on achieving substantial breakthroughs in ecological diversification, technological innovation, and resource integration.