Data Scientist: The crypto prediction market Polymarket has an accuracy rate of 90% in predicting world events

ChainCatcher news, data scientist Alex McCullough's research shows that the prediction market Polymarket has an accuracy rate of 90% when predicting events occurring a month later, and an accuracy rate of up to 94% four hours before the event occurs. McCullough analyzed Polymarket's historical data and found that after removing extreme probability values, the platform slightly but consistently overestimates the probability of events occurring within most probability ranges, possibly influenced by factors such as herd mentality, low liquidity, and participants' preference for high-risk bets.