The Dilemma and Hope of Ethereum

At the end of Friday's article, many readers left comments asking about Ethereum, which surprised me a bit.

Because during this recent period, I have written far more articles about Ethereum than Bitcoin. In both these articles and in my last online discussion, I have clearly shared my views and practices regarding Ethereum.

In the article on January 24 titled "Can Ethereum Rise Again? Interpreting Ethereum's Core Values," I stated:

"Ethereum's decentralization is temporarily not an issue; the team and ecosystem are currently affected to some extent, but there is still an opportunity for recovery. I still believe this young founder can lead his team and Ethereum out of the current predicament and solve the problems encountered in development."

In the article on February 21 titled "In the Face of Pressure, Does Ethereum Compromise or Persist," I expressed:

"I am particularly worried that Vitalik might yield to the influence of some community opinions, succumb to the current price trends, and take measures to abandon the ideals and pursuits of decentralization in order to 'pull' Ethereum's price up in the short term."

In the article on February 24 titled "Decentralization is the 'Moat' of Blockchain," I shared some of Vitalik's viewpoints from an interview and clearly expressed my appreciation and agreement with some of his key points.

In the article on February 25 titled "V God’s Outlook on Ethereum's Future," I found that many of the viewpoints and development directions he discussed in the interview were ones I strongly agreed with, which alleviated some of my previous concerns and doubts.

In the article on March 5 titled "Will Ethereum's Market Cap Exceed Bitcoin's in the Future," I explicitly shared my view:

"I still believe that Ethereum's total market cap will exceed Bitcoin's one day in the future."

In the article on March 6 titled "In the Coming Period: Only Invest in BTC and ETH," I wrote:

"I will only choose two assets for regular investment: Bitcoin and Ethereum."

In the article on February 28 titled "Risk Management in Extreme Markets: Rethinking Cross-Cycle Asset Allocation," I was even more straightforward:

"For Ethereum, as long as it is below $2500, I will resume regular investment."

In the last online discussion, a listener asked a question along the lines of:

If AI applications are likely to explode in the crypto ecosystem in the future, which tokens might explode?

I remember I answered like this:

I think it's hard to say which specific tokens might explode; it could be ones we see now, or it could be new ones that emerge in the future.

While it's difficult to judge what the tokens will be, I suspect that the platform for the explosion of AI applications will most likely be within the Ethereum ecosystem. However, the specific networks that explode are less likely to be on the mainnet and more likely to be on layer two, or even layer three or four.

This is because the Ethereum mainnet is not suitable for high-frequency, small-value transactions, while layer two or even multi-layer expansions can meet this demand.

At that time, I also mentioned the latest progress of the BASE layer two network: it can shorten transaction execution to under 200 ms, which would outperform Solana, which is currently at 400 ms.

Whether the BASE team's claim is reliable is still difficult to verify, but one thing I believe is:

With the continuous iteration and upgrade of technological progress, the improvement of layer two network performance or the emergence of higher-performance layer two networks (like MegaETH) is inevitable.

Therefore, future layer two or more layered networks will definitely be able to support high-frequency, small-value transactions, while the Ethereum mainnet will mainly focus on decentralization to ensure security, maintain neutrality, and resist censorship.

All of the above viewpoints are my perspectives on Ethereum and the Ethereum ecosystem, and I have not changed them.

So for other investors, is Ethereum suitable or not?

That depends on the investors themselves.

If one does not have confidence in Ethereum, then I think it would be better to sell now. Because there is no need to hold onto something one does not believe in. Additionally, my consistent view is to not let the assets one holds interfere with their life or affect their emotions. Even if the asset is Bitcoin, if investors feel uneasy holding it, they should sell it without hesitation.

If one is optimistic about Ethereum, at the current price (as of the time of writing, under $1900), I really do not see any unfathomable risks. Moreover, the lower Ethereum's price, the more one should be happy about it.