JPMorgan: The most severe phase of the U.S. stock market correction may have ended, and the credit market shows lower recession risks

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan strategists believe that the most severe phase of the U.S. stock market correction may have ended, and the credit market shows a lower risk of economic recession. Strategists Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and Mika Inkinen pointed out in a report on Wednesday that compared to the stock and interest rate markets, the credit market, which has provided accurate signals multiple times over the past two years, is less worried about the risk of a U.S. economic recession.

Analysis shows that smaller companies, which are more sensitive to economic growth, are better suited to measure the cyclical risks in the U.S. Currently, the small-cap stock market reflects about a 50% probability of recession, which is generally consistent with the expectations of the interest rate and commodity markets. However, the U.S. debt market suggests a recession probability of only 9% to 12%. The recent market adjustment has been more driven by quantitative funds adjusting their positions rather than fundamental investors or active management investors reassessing the risk of a U.S. economic recession.