How to Establish Cognitive Barriers in the Field of Cryptography

Recently, a tech blogger said in an audio class:

In any industry and in any era, novices cannot make money.

Coincidentally, during an online discussion last Saturday, several listeners raised questions related to this topic, so today I want to share my latest thoughts on this matter.

I remember that in my previous articles, whether quoting others' viewpoints or sharing my own, I have repeatedly expressed the opinion:

In my view, among many emerging fields, the cryptocurrency industry is the most friendly to the general public or retail investors.

Now it seems that this statement, if not explained in detail, can easily lead to misunderstandings.

I believe the biggest misunderstanding is: novices can achieve financial freedom and ascend the social ladder in this ecosystem through reckless investments and impulsive actions.

The most harmful aspect of this misunderstanding is that it leads people to mistakenly believe that this ecosystem has a lot of "shortcuts" to take and numerous "opportunities" for easy gains waiting for novices and retail investors, so novices do not need to gain knowledge or learn; they just need to come, and wealth will be right in front of them, with riches coming tomorrow.

I do not deny that there are indeed some people in this ecosystem who have had such "opportunities," but I believe these are more exceptions rather than the norm; they are more about luck than something that can be easily attained.

Let's look at a very simple example:

Now everyone knows that if you had bought Bitcoin on the very first day and held onto it until today, the wealth effect could be unmatched by any other asset, and the earlier you bought, the more astonishing the wealth effect.

From the perspective of the time dimension of wealth appreciation, this is indeed an undeniable shortcut.

But is it really a shortcut?

How many of us can endure a 90% loss on paper time and again?

How many of us can withstand the repeated doubts and ridicule from the outside world?

How many of us can bear the repeated suppression from policy levels?

Setting Bitcoin aside for a moment, look at many of the coins we hold today; aren't many of them down 90% from their peak values in this market cycle?

At this point, we might as well ask ourselves: Do I still believe that these coins that have dropped so much have hope?

If we ourselves today do not dare to think that the coins we hold still have hope, then we can also imagine that if it were us back then, we would likely not have believed that Bitcoin still had hope.

Some might say without hesitation: How can these coins be compared to Bitcoin? They have no value.

In fact, when Bitcoin dropped 90% back then, many people would also say without hesitation: How can Bitcoin be compared to those assets? Bitcoin has no value.

So how did those who managed to hold on after Bitcoin dropped 90% get through it?

I believe that besides some helplessness and the need to endure, there must also be some other insights and beliefs that most people do not possess.

Why do only these people have such insights and beliefs while others do not?

I believe this comes from their own learning and thinking over time.

The time and effort spent on this learning and thinking cannot be obtained by taking "shortcuts."

It is precisely because they invested this time and effort and gained these insights that they reaped rewards that are hard for ordinary people to achieve.

There is actually no shortcut here; it’s just that ordinary people cannot see or know it. They quietly put in hard work behind the scenes and finally stood out from the many novices who entered the space together, becoming experts in Bitcoin knowledge in their era.

The above analogy is not meant to spark a debate about whether the tokens that have dropped 90% will have value in the future, but rather to encourage everyone to reflect: When we first got involved, did we spend two, three, or even more times the effort to research and understand them? Did we truly consider the possible ups and downs we might face? Did we really think through all aspects? Did we genuinely contemplate their value?

If we had spent that time and had those thoughts back then, we should have a clear understanding of the current situation and not be too anxious.

If we did not have those thoughts and simply bought them because others said they were good, then I believe this is purely an attempt to take a "shortcut." This approach might succeed once or twice by chance, but in most cases, it is very difficult to succeed, and even if it occasionally works, it certainly cannot last.

If we were to express "among many emerging fields, the cryptocurrency ecosystem is the most friendly to retail investors" more accurately, I think a better way to say it would be:

This ecosystem has not existed for long, and many subfields are even emerging. In each subfield, there is currently no one who has significantly more knowledge than others, nor is there a much higher barrier to entry. Whether we are experts or novices in other ecosystems, once we enter this ecosystem, we are basically starting from a similar starting line.

In such a situation, as long as each of us puts in a little more effort than others, we can quickly become experts in a certain subfield. Once we become experts in a certain subfield, we can then make rapid progress in our area of expertise and reap rewards that are difficult for others to achieve.

Therefore, the true "friendliness" of this ecosystem to retail investors lies in the creation of more equitable opportunities.

However, having opportunities without utilizing them, without quickly arming ourselves, and without rapidly establishing our own knowledge and judgment, and still remaining a novice after a long time, is what we should be most wary of.