From tariffs to strategic reserves of crypto assets, analyzing the new crypto order of the Trump era

Introduction: The New Order of the Cryptocurrency Market in the Trump Era

In 2025, the global financial market ushered in new changes. Trump returned to the White House, continuing his consistent economic nationalist policies, with tariffs, reshaping supply chains, and strengthening dollar hegemony being introduced successively. At the same time, with the continuous expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, the intensification of the global "de-dollarization" trend, and the rise of the cryptocurrency market worldwide, the Trump administration's attitude towards cryptocurrencies is undergoing significant changes.

Against this backdrop, the concept of strategic reserves of crypto assets has gradually emerged and become the focus of market attention. This report will delve into the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the global financial market, as well as how the potential promotion of a strategic reserve plan for crypto assets may affect the market performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Additionally, we will analyze possible changes in regulatory policies, adjustments in institutional investors' asset allocation strategies, and the future development direction of the overall crypto market.

I. Macroeconomic Background of Trump's Economic Policies and the Crypto Market

1.1 Tariff Policies: Reshaping the Global Economic Order and the Impact on Capital Markets

Trump's economic policies have always centered around "America First," a strategy that not only affects the domestic economic landscape but also profoundly changes the operational model of global capital markets and financial systems. The Trump administration implemented a series of significant economic policies from 2017 to 2021, including massive tax cuts, a tough trade war, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and control over dollar liquidity.

These policies stimulated U.S. economic growth in the short term but also led to a long-term rise in fiscal deficits and international economic instability. In 2025, after Trump's re-election, the market widely expects his administration to continue or even strengthen past economic policies, particularly in areas such as tariff policies, dollar strategy, fiscal stimulus, regulatory environment, and global capital flows, all of which will have profound impacts on the crypto market.

In the context of an increasingly decentralized global economic system, the crypto market has gradually become an important component of the international financial system. Mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are not only seen as investment targets but are also viewed by some countries and institutions as assets to hedge against dollar risks. The application of stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) in international trade settlements is also increasing, promoting the digitization of the dollar.

The Trump administration's economic policies will have a profound impact on these trends. Its tariff policies may accelerate global capital allocation towards crypto assets like Bitcoin, dollar liquidity management will affect the funding supply in the crypto market, and U.S. regulatory policies will determine the legitimacy and development space of the crypto market. Furthermore, the potential promotion of a strategic reserve plan for crypto assets by Trump could trigger global market transformations.

One of the core economic policies of the Trump administration is its highly aggressive trade policy. The outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war between 2018 and 2019 led to a restructuring of global supply chains and significant changes in capital flows. Facing the new economic situation in 2025, Trump is likely to restart the trade war, imposing tariffs on economies such as China, the EU, and Japan, attempting to re-establish U.S. manufacturing competitiveness through external pressure. The direct consequence of this policy will be an increase in uncertainty in international capital markets, with global investors seeking safe-haven assets, and decentralized assets like Bitcoin potentially becoming new hedging tools in this environment.

In fact, during the most intense period of the trade war in 2019, Bitcoin's price soared from $3,000 to $13,000, as the market generally believed that capital was flowing into the crypto market while avoiding traditional market risks. The escalation of the trade war in 2025 may once again drive similar capital flow trends, especially against the backdrop of a damaged dollar credit system, where Bitcoin's appeal may become even stronger.

In addition to the trade war's impact on global capital markets, the Trump administration's fiscal policies are also a significant factor influencing the crypto market. Trump implemented a massive tax cut policy in 2017, reducing corporate tax rates and increasing government fiscal deficits. In 2025, Trump may adopt similar measures to stimulate U.S. economic growth, including further corporate tax cuts, large-scale infrastructure investments, and increased military spending.

These policies may boost the U.S. economy in the short term but will also exacerbate fiscal deficits and put pressure on the dollar credit system. An increase in fiscal deficits typically means that the government needs to fill funding gaps through debt issuance or monetary easing policies. If the market expects the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing (QE) in the future, market liquidity will increase, which often benefits Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

In fact, during the period of ultra-loose monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve from 2020 to 2021, it was one of the key drivers of the Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, if the Trump administration promotes a new round of fiscal stimulus, and the Federal Reserve is somewhat forced to cooperate with easing monetary policy, the market may welcome a new cycle of rising crypto assets.

1.2 Dollar Liquidity and the Cyclical Relationship with the Crypto Market

As the global reserve currency, the status of the dollar may change under the policies of the Trump administration. Trump expressed dissatisfaction with a strong dollar multiple times during his first term, believing that the overvaluation of the dollar harmed the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing. In 2025, the Trump administration may take measures to promote dollar depreciation to boost exports and reduce trade deficits. If the trend of dollar depreciation is established, global investors may seek other assets to hedge against the risk of dollar depreciation, with Bitcoin, gold, and other safe-haven assets potentially becoming new directions for capital inflows.

Particularly globally, some countries have begun to explore the process of de-dollarization. For example, Russia and China have reduced their reliance on the dollar in international trade, while Middle Eastern countries are also attempting to use the yuan or other currencies for oil settlements. If the Trump administration's policies accelerate the de-dollarization process, the global demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin may further increase, pushing the crypto market into a new stage of development.

The domestic regulatory policies for crypto in the U.S. may undergo significant changes during the Trump era. Trump's attitude towards crypto assets was somewhat ambiguous during his first term, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin repeatedly expressing a desire to strengthen regulation of the crypto market to prevent assets like Bitcoin from being used for illegal transactions. However, during the 2024 campaign, Trump and his allies began to show a more positive attitude towards crypto assets, believing that Bitcoin and blockchain technology could bring new financial innovations and economic growth opportunities to the U.S.

In 2025, the Trump administration may adjust the U.S. regulatory framework for crypto, such as reducing the tax burden on crypto assets, relaxing legal restrictions on crypto trading and investment, and supporting the further development of financial products like Bitcoin ETFs. If these policies are implemented, they will bring enormous growth opportunities to the U.S. crypto market and also have a demonstration effect on the global market, prompting other countries to adjust their attitudes towards the crypto market.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration may promote the establishment of a "strategic reserve plan for crypto assets," incorporating Bitcoin and other crypto assets into a national-level reserve system. This policy proposal may be based on multiple factors, including countering dollar credit risks, seizing a dominant position in the global crypto market, and ensuring U.S. leadership in the digital asset field in international competition.

If the U.S. government decides to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, Bitcoin will gain unprecedented market recognition and may become an important component of the global financial system. The impact of this policy will far exceed any ETF or institutional investment entry; it signifies the formal recognition of Bitcoin at the sovereign state level and may trigger similar actions from other countries globally.

1.3 Institutional Investors' Reallocation in the Crypto Market

In recent years, institutional investors' acceptance of crypto assets has gradually increased. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of large financial institutions, crypto assets have gradually become part of traditional investment portfolios. If the Trump administration advances the strategic reserve of crypto assets and relaxes restrictions on institutional investors holding crypto assets, the market structure will undergo significant changes. In the long term, this may lead to Bitcoin and Ethereum entering more national and institutional investment portfolios, further maturing the market.

Overall, the economic policies of the Trump administration will have profound effects on the crypto market. The trade war may accelerate capital flows into crypto assets, fiscal deficits and dollar depreciation may increase demand for Bitcoin, and adjustments in the regulatory environment may further promote the development of the U.S. crypto market. If the Trump administration ultimately promotes the strategic reserve plan for crypto assets, Bitcoin may welcome historic institutional recognition, fundamentally changing the landscape of the global financial system. In this process, the market needs to closely monitor the specific policy direction of the Trump administration and the global capital market's response to these policies to seize future development opportunities in the crypto market.

II. Strategic Reserve of Crypto Assets: Policy Background and Potential Impact

2.1 Policy Background for the U.S. Government's Promotion of Strategic Reserve for Crypto Assets

After the Trump administration took office again in 2025, its economic policies still revolve around "America First," which not only means re-evaluating the dollar's status as a global reserve currency but may also mean the government is beginning to consider diversifying part of the national reserves to hedge against dollar credit risks.

For a long time, the dollar, as the world's primary reserve currency, has given the U.S. unparalleled influence in the global financial system. However, in recent years, with rising U.S. debt levels, expanding fiscal deficits, adjustments in interest rate policies, and questioning of the dollar's dominant position by various countries, the dollar's reserve status is being challenged.

On one hand, the fiscal deficit issue of the U.S. government has become a focal point for global markets. Since 2020, the level of U.S. government debt has continued to soar, surpassing $34 trillion by the end of 2024, and is still growing rapidly. This has weakened market confidence in the long-term value of the dollar, prompting countries to explore reserve assets outside of the dollar.

After the Trump administration took office, to further promote fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment, the U.S. fiscal deficit issue may worsen. If the market expects an increased risk of dollar depreciation, global central banks may accelerate adjustments to their reserve asset allocations, with decentralized assets like Bitcoin potentially becoming alternative choices outside of the dollar.

On the other hand, the acceleration of the de-dollarization process also requires the U.S. government to rethink how to maintain its financial hegemony. In recent years, many countries have reduced their reliance on the dollar in international trade settlements. For example, trade between Russia and China is gradually shifting to local currency settlements, and countries like the UAE and India are also exploring using the yuan or other currencies for oil trade settlements.

This trend weakens the global influence of the dollar, necessitating new measures from the U.S. government to ensure its dominant position in the global financial system. If the Trump administration views the strategic reserve of crypto assets as a new global financial strategic tool, Bitcoin may be formally incorporated into the U.S. official reserve system as a potential weapon against the de-dollarization of the global financial system.

In addition, the Trump administration's attitude towards the cryptocurrency market is also gradually changing. Although Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin in 2019, calling it "based on air, with no real value," his stance has clearly changed during the 2024 campaign. On one hand, Trump's team has gradually recognized the potential of crypto assets in the future financial system and is trying to gain support from the crypto industry; on the other hand, U.S. institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin in recent years. For instance, institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have launched Bitcoin spot ETFs, attracting billions of dollars in inflows.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. government may realize that Bitcoin is no longer a marginalized asset class but is becoming an important component of the global financial system. If the U.S. government wants to dominate this market, establishing a "strategic reserve of crypto assets" would be a strategic choice in line with its national interests.

2.2 Potential Impact of the Strategic Reserve of Crypto Assets

First, this policy could significantly change the market's perception of Bitcoin's value and push Bitcoin prices into a new valuation system. The current market's primary pricing logic for Bitcoin is still based on its scarcity (a total supply of 21 million), its inflation-hedging properties, and its role in the digital economy. However, if the U.S. government formally incorporates Bitcoin into its national reserves, it means Bitcoin will transition from an "alternative asset" to a "national reserve asset," fundamentally changing its market perception. For decades, gold has been an important component of global central bank reserves, and if Bitcoin is included in the same system, its market valuation could see exponential growth.

Currently, the global gold market is approximately $13 trillion, while the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is only about $1 trillion. If Bitcoin is endowed with reserve functions similar to gold, its market value could reach at least 30-50% of the gold market, which translates to $4-6 trillion or more, corresponding to a Bitcoin price potentially exceeding $200,000. This means that the U.S. government's policy decisions will directly influence Bitcoin's long-term value and may trigger a new bull market.

Secondly, the implementation of this policy will have subtle effects on the dollar's status as a global reserve currency. Traditionally, the dollar's ability to become the world's primary reserve currency relies on the strength of the U.S. economy, the global coverage of dollar liquidity, and the stability of dollar-denominated assets (such as U.S. Treasuries).

However, if the U.S. government begins to incorporate Bitcoin into its reserves, it may send a signal to the market that the U.S. government itself is considering dollar credit risks and is attempting to hedge through Bitcoin. This could exacerbate market concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar and prompt other countries to adjust their reserve structures, leading to more central banks holding Bitcoin. Once this trend takes shape, it could weaken the dollar's global dominance and accelerate the multipolarization of the global financial system.

At the same time, the U.S. government's holding of Bitcoin may also impact the global geopolitical landscape. Currently, some countries are already attempting to incorporate Bitcoin into their national financial strategies. For example, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 and is gradually increasing its national Bitcoin reserves.

Additionally, countries like Russia and Iran are exploring the use of Bitcoin for international trade settlements to circumvent Western financial sanctions. If the U.S. government takes the lead in incorporating Bitcoin into its national reserve system, other countries may have to make corresponding adjustments to avoid being at a disadvantage in future global financial system competition. This could lead to a "national-level Bitcoin reserve race" globally, further influencing the global financial landscape.

Finally, this policy may also trigger a chain reaction in the regulatory environment for the crypto market in the U.S. Currently, the regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto market remains relatively uncertain, with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) having disagreements over the jurisdiction of crypto asset regulation. However, if the U.S. government decides to incorporate Bitcoin into its national reserves, it means that Bitcoin's legal status may be formally established, promoting further clarification of the relevant regulatory framework. This could provide a clearer compliance path for the U.S. crypto market, encouraging more institutional funds to enter the market and further accelerating the mainstreaming of Bitcoin.

In summary, the U.S. government's promotion of a "strategic reserve of crypto assets" is not only a significant shock to the global financial system but may also fundamentally change Bitcoin's market positioning and influence the direction of global capital flows. The implementation of this policy may cause significant market volatility in the short term, but in the long run, it could become a milestone event in the history of Bitcoin's development, pushing the global financial system into a new era.

III. Future Market Outlook and Investment Strategies

3.1 Long-term Trends and Future Outlook of the Crypto Market

The development path of the crypto market can be analyzed from multiple angles, including macroeconomic trends, policy environments, changes in market structures, and technological advancements. The policies of the Trump administration may serve as a catalyst for a new bull market in the crypto space, but their long-term impact will depend on various variables, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the evolution of the global de-dollarization process, the level of participation from institutional investors, and the policy orientations of emerging markets.

First, changes in the global financial environment will be a key factor influencing the long-term trajectory of the crypto market. Currently, the global economy faces a series of challenges, including de-globalization, inflation pressures, interest rate uncertainties, and geopolitical conflicts, all of which may prompt more investors to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

Historical experience shows that during periods of rising global uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets like gold often attract market favor, and Bitcoin is gradually acquiring similar safe-haven functions. If the U.S. government formally recognizes Bitcoin's status as a reserve asset, Bitcoin will gain further market trust and may replace part of gold's market share.

Secondly, the level of participation from institutional investors will be an important variable determining the future market size of Bitcoin. In recent years, with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, traditional financial institutions have begun to enter the crypto market on a large scale. For example, Bitcoin ETF products from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted billions of dollars in inflows. If the U.S. government establishes a "strategic reserve of crypto assets," more sovereign funds, pension funds, and central banks may accelerate their allocation to Bitcoin. This will further promote the maturity of the Bitcoin market, gradually transforming it from a highly volatile asset into a stable store of value.

Moreover, the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process will also have profound effects on the crypto market. Currently, economies including China, Russia, Iran, and India are actively exploring de-dollarization paths to reduce reliance on the dollar.

If Bitcoin becomes part of the U.S. government's reserve assets, other countries may have to reassess their attitudes towards Bitcoin. Some countries may follow suit and increase Bitcoin's share in their foreign exchange reserves, while others may choose to restrict Bitcoin trading to maintain the stability of their national currencies. This policy game will directly impact Bitcoin's global liquidity and may create arbitrage opportunities in certain markets.

3.2 Investment Strategies and Market Opportunity Analysis

In the context of profound changes in market structure, investors need to adjust their strategies to adapt to the new market environment. Whether individual or institutional investors, they need to consider how to optimize asset allocation in the new financial landscape and seek the most promising investment opportunities.

First, the investment logic for Bitcoin will change. In the past, Bitcoin was mainly viewed as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, but in the future, it may increasingly be seen as "digital gold" or "central bank reserve asset." This means that Bitcoin's price volatility may gradually decrease, and long-term holders of Bitcoin will enjoy stable value growth. For investors, adopting a "long-term hold" (HODL) strategy may be the best way to respond to market changes, especially under government policy support, where Bitcoin's long-term value will be better secured.

Secondly, structural arbitrage opportunities in the market may increase. As governments around the world adopt differentiated policies towards Bitcoin, different regulatory environments may emerge in the market, leading to price discrepancies between different markets. For example, if some countries impose strict restrictions on Bitcoin trading while the U.S. government actively promotes a Bitcoin reserve plan, the global Bitcoin price may exhibit significant deviations, allowing savvy investors to exploit these differences for cross-market arbitrage trading.

Additionally, the role of the derivatives market will further strengthen. Currently, the Bitcoin futures and options markets are relatively mature, and with the entry of institutional investors, the demand for risk management regarding Bitcoin will further increase. In the future, we may see more complex financial instruments introduced into the crypto market, such as Bitcoin-based bonds and structured products. For professional investors, utilizing these tools for risk hedging and yield optimization will be an important trend in the future market.

On the other hand, besides Bitcoin, other crypto assets also present market opportunities worth attention. While Bitcoin may become the primary national reserve asset, ecosystems of smart contract platforms like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are still rapidly developing. If government and institutional funds begin to enter the crypto market on a large scale, these assets may also benefit. Particularly in the fields of decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized assets (RWA), new market opportunities may arise in the future. For instance, some countries may explore blockchain-based government bond issuance or use smart contract technology to optimize financial transaction processes, creating new investment opportunities for investors.

3.3 Risk Factors and Response Strategies

Although the policies of the Trump administration may bring long-term benefits to the crypto market, investors still need to be aware of potential risk factors and develop corresponding response strategies.

First, policy uncertainty remains one of the biggest risks in the market. Although the Trump administration may support the strategic reserve of crypto assets, the implementation of this policy still depends on various factors, including Congressional approval, the Federal Reserve's stance, cooperation from the Treasury Department, and reactions from other countries globally. If policy advancement is hindered, the market may experience significant volatility. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor policy dynamics and adjust their investment strategies based on policy changes.

Secondly, market liquidity risk is also an important consideration. Although the Bitcoin market has matured significantly compared to the past, its liquidity remains relatively low compared to traditional financial markets. If the government or large institutions suddenly adjust their Bitcoin holdings, the market may experience severe fluctuations. Therefore, investors should avoid excessive leveraged trading and adopt strategies of buying or selling in batches during periods of high market volatility to reduce market impact risks.

Additionally, geopolitical factors may also affect the crypto market. As global competition among nations intensifies, some countries may take measures to curb the use of Bitcoin. For example, China has strengthened its regulation of cryptocurrencies multiple times in recent years, and if the U.S. government promotes the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, other countries may take corresponding countermeasures. Investors need to consider this possibility and ensure the diversification of their investment portfolios to mitigate risks arising from specific policy changes.

Finally, technological risks remain a significant challenge for the crypto market. Although the Bitcoin network itself is highly secure, the entire crypto industry still faces risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, exchange security issues, and hacking attacks. Investors need to choose trading platforms with high security and take appropriate security measures, such as using cold wallets to store assets and diversifying investments across different asset classes to reduce potential technological risks.

IV. Conclusion

Against the backdrop of significant changes in the global financial system, whether the U.S. government will formally incorporate Bitcoin and other crypto assets into its national strategic reserves has become a focal point of market attention. With the Trump administration's changing attitude towards crypto assets and the accelerating global de-dollarization process, the possibility of establishing a "strategic reserve of crypto assets" is gradually increasing.

If this policy is implemented, it will be one of the most disruptive changes to the global financial system in a century, potentially having far-reaching impacts on the dollar's reserve status, financial games between nations, market liquidity, the competitive landscape of sovereign currencies, and the perception of Bitcoin's value. Therefore, we need to explore the potential motivations, policy background, global macro environment, and the broad impacts this policy may have on the market.

In the context of the Trump administration promoting the concept of a "strategic reserve of crypto assets," the global financial market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are transitioning from speculative investment products to potential national reserve assets, gradually establishing their core position in the global financial system.

This trend will not only affect the crypto market itself but will also have profound implications for the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, traditional financial markets, sovereign currency systems, and the investment strategies of institutions and individuals. The crypto market is currently at a critical stage where policy dividends and market challenges coexist. If the U.S. government formally incorporates crypto assets into its strategic reserves, core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will face unprecedented development opportunities.

We recommend that investors closely monitor policy changes and seek the best investment opportunities amid market fluctuations. The "strategic reserve of crypto assets" proposed by the Trump administration may become a key node in the transformation of the global financial system, pushing the Bitcoin market into a new stage of development. For investors, this policy may bring unprecedented market opportunities, but it also comes with significant uncertainty.

In the future market environment, long-term holding of Bitcoin, paying attention to policy dynamics, utilizing market arbitrage opportunities, optimizing investment portfolio structures, and managing market risks will be key to successful investing. As the global financial system evolves, crypto assets will become an increasingly important asset class, and investors who can accurately grasp these trends will reap the greatest rewards in this transformation.