The battle between bulls and bears is fierce, is Bitcoin experiencing another "golden pit"?

Author: BitpushNews Mary Liu

After several days of thrilling fluctuations, overnight, risk assets experienced a reversal.

According to Bitpush data, in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from a low of $81,500 to over $88,000, with an intraday increase of nearly 10%. Meanwhile, the declines in the three major stock indices narrowed, with the Nasdaq closing down by 0.35%.

Tug-of-War Between Market Sentiment and Macroeconomics

Recently, the market has been stuck, with Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $78,000 on February 21 to $95,000, then retreating to around $81,000, as both bulls and bears struggle for dominance, leaving the market direction unclear. Although Trump's "pro-crypto" statements briefly boosted market confidence, their impact was ultimately short-lived, failing to reverse the overall market's weak trend. The potential macroeconomic risks still loom over the market like the "Sword of Damocles."

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that the Bitcoin market may continue to linger in a sluggish state until there is a substantial improvement in market sentiment in the U.S. With unclear regulatory policies, a complex and changing macroeconomic environment, and ongoing fluctuations in investor sentiment, whether Bitcoin can maintain high levels in the long term remains uncertain. Before stronger market catalysts emerge, Bitcoin may continue to oscillate within a wide range, and investors need to closely monitor market movements to capture key signals.

After Losing the $90,000 Threshold, Bulls Face Severe Challenges

Despite multiple attempts to rebound, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market remain under pressure, failing to establish a sustained upward trend. Many analysts have issued warnings that if bulls want to reverse the downturn, they must act quickly to reclaim key levels; otherwise, Bitcoin may face further downward risks.

However, Ki Young Ju believes that it may be too early to assert that the bull market cycle has ended. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that market on-chain activity remains relatively subdued, and key indicators are neutral, suggesting that despite the recent weak market performance, the overall bull market pattern may not have been destroyed. Additionally, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain robust, with more mining machines coming online, reflecting that major market participants still have confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

Ju further pointed out that if this bull market cycle were to end, it would likely not be a welcome outcome for major market stakeholders, including early "whale" investors, large mining companies, traditional financial institutions, and U.S. President Trump, who has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies. Retail investors are generally considered latecomers in the bull market cycle, and at this stage, their market behavior may not be sufficient to dominate market direction.

$85,000 Becomes a Key Liquidity Test; Historical Cycles May Repeat?

TradingView analysts believe that the more critical support level for BTC in the short term remains at $85,000, a level that has played a crucial role in recent market battles.

If Bitcoin continues to operate below $85,000 in the coming days, it may trigger a larger-scale market sell-off, with concentrated selling pressure potentially accelerating the price decline and further confirming the market's bearish momentum. At that point, Bitcoin may face the risk of testing lower support levels.

Quinten posted on X platform: Looking back at history may provide us with some insights. In the last bull market cycle, Bitcoin experienced seven significant pullbacks, with declines of: -17%, -17%, -32%, -26%, -28%, -51%, -25%. Each pullback triggered market panic, making it feel like a "bear market" had arrived. Whenever the price dropped significantly, the market was filled with claims that "Bitcoin is dead." However, history has proven that Bitcoin ultimately broke through resistance and continued to rise. Indeed, history does not repeat itself exactly, but it often bears striking similarities.

In summary, the key price levels of $85,000 and $90,000 will become the focal points for both bulls and bears in the short term. Investors need to closely monitor the gains and losses at these two levels to assess the market's next direction.

According to analyst MasterAnanda, the current market trend is quite "interesting" and is releasing some key signals worth noting:

Bottom May Have Been Found: Last week, Bitcoin fell sharply by 28% from its historical high of $109,000, quickly rebounding after hitting a low of $78,300. This "V-shaped reversal" is often seen as a signal of a market's phase bottom, indicating that the likelihood of further significant declines in the short term is reduced.

Healthy Pullback in a Bull Market: After a strong bull market rise, a certain degree of pullback is a normal phenomenon. This pullback helps release the profits accumulated in the market, allowing for new upward momentum to build. Healthy adjustments can lay the foundation for a longer-term bull market.

"Golden Pit" for Buying on Dips: The current market pullback actually provides a rare entry opportunity for outside funds. If one missed the previous rapid rise of Bitcoin from $85,000 to $95,000, now may be a good time to position at relatively low levels. The market is always full of opportunities, and pullbacks are an important "accumulation phase" in a bull market cycle.

Long-Term Bull Market Trend Unchanged: The long-term upward growth trend of Bitcoin has not fundamentally changed. Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin is expected to regain upward momentum in the coming months, gradually oscillating upward. According to previous analysts' predictions, Bitcoin still has the potential to target $120,000 next month.

Technical Indicators Provide Support: Observing the daily chart of Bitcoin, the 200-day moving average (MA200) is playing a key support role, and MA200 has long been regarded as one of the most important technical indicators for assessing the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies. The current price trend of Bitcoin is forming higher lows, indicating that the bullish trend may be further confirmed.

Market Sentiment and Capital Accumulation: This cycle is not purely driven by U.S. government policies or geopolitical events; it also reflects the cyclical nature of the market itself. Bitcoin is ready to enter a new growth phase and is expected to reach new highs again in 2025. Moreover, there is still a large amount of capital outside the market waiting for opportunities, and once the market stabilizes and rebounds, this capital is likely to accelerate its entry, further boosting the market's rise.

In conclusion, Bitcoin may have found a phase bottom, and the market is entering an "accumulation phase" of oscillation and buildup. Although short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, the long-term bull market trend remains solid. Investors can seize the current pullback opportunity to gradually position at relatively low levels, hold patiently, and wait for the market to ultimately choose its direction.