BitMart VIP Research Insights | February Cryptocurrency Market Review

1. Macroeconomic Perspective

In February 2025, the U.S. macroeconomy faces multiple challenges: inflation has not effectively receded, structural issues in the labor market have intensified, and economic growth is slowing, although some sectors still perform strongly. The Federal Reserve is faced with the choice of whether to continue cutting interest rates, and the volatility risk in the capital markets is gradually increasing. As macro risks intensify, future policy directions will be more uncertain, necessitating close attention to changes in economic data.

1. Monetary Policy
The unexpected rebound in January inflation: CPI year-on-year rose to 3.0% (market expectation 2.9%), core CPI year-on-year increased to 3.3% (expected 3.1%), with a month-on-month growth rate being the highest since May 2023. Although the FOMC statement indicated that "the path of inflation returning to the 2% target has not been fundamentally disrupted," Powell conveyed a cautious signal in his speech on February 11, clearly stating that "policy adjustments will depend on inflation and economic data over the next three months." The first rate cut is expected to be delayed until June, three months later than initially anticipated.

2. Labor Market
In January, non-farm payrolls added 143,000 jobs (expected 175,000), marking a three-month low, but the data for the previous two months was revised upward by 100,000, indicating that the labor market still has resilience. The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.0% (expected 4.1%), and the labor participation rate remained stable at 62.5%, showing that the wage growth's pull on labor supply has weakened. There is significant industry differentiation: education and healthcare (+54,000) and construction (+36,000) contributed the main increments, while retail (-12,000) and manufacturing (-8,000) continued to contract. Wage growth year-on-year was 4.2%, and month-on-month was 0.3%, with wage pressure still present in the service sector.

3. Inflation
In January, CPI year-on-year rose to 3.0%, core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.3%, with month-on-month increases of 0.5% and 0.4%, significantly exceeding market expectations. Service prices became the main driver: housing OER (owner's equivalent rent) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while medical care (+0.6%) and entertainment services (+0.9%) saw expanded increases. The divergence between PPI and CPI intensified, with January PPI year-on-year declining by 2.3%, and the lag in energy cost transmission led to manufacturing profit margins being compressed to 4.1% (the lowest in nearly three years).

4. Capital Markets
In February, the U.S. stock market showed significant differentiation: the Nasdaq rose 4.2% for the month, reaching a historic high of 19,945.64 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, and the Dow Jones increased slightly by 0.6%. Tech stocks continued to dominate the market, with Nvidia's monthly increase reaching 17%, and the "Big Seven" tech companies like Meta and Google saw Q4 net profits grow by 33%-52%, driven by AI computing demand and a recovery in advertising business. In terms of market sentiment, the VIX index fell to 14.7, and the open interest in bullish options for the tech sector surged by 23%. However, after the release of non-farm and CPI data, the S&P 500's daily volatility expanded to 1.5%, indicating increased sensitivity to policy changes.

5. Economic Outlook
The U.S. economy exhibits characteristics of "inflation rebound + slowing growth," resembling stagflation: the February Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.6 (expected 51.4), expanding for two consecutive months, with the new orders index rising to 53.1, initiating a inventory replenishment cycle; however, the services PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 53), falling below the boom-bust line for the first time, with the employment index plummeting to 48.3. The bond market reflects rising stagflation concerns, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declining by 8 basis points to 4.42% for the month, but after the CPI announcement, it briefly soared to 4.63%, and the 30-year real interest rate turned negative, with the term spread expanding to 17 basis points. On the policy front, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: an early rate cut may reinforce inflation expectations, but maintaining high rates will suppress consumption and manufacturing investment. January retail sales grew only 0.1% month-on-month (expected 0.3%), revealing economic weakness. If the CPI announced in March does not decline, the adjustment pressure on risk assets may further release.

2. Overview of the Cryptocurrency Market

Cryptocurrency Data Analysis

Trading Volume & Daily Growth Rate

According to CoinGecko data, as of February 26, the cryptocurrency market has continued to experience low trading activity over the past month, with an average daily trading volume of $146.5 billion, down 17% from the previous period. On February 4, as the Asian Spring Festival holiday was nearing its end, liquidity in the Asian market briefly rebounded, pushing daily trading volume to a peak of $440.9 billion; however, this increase did not reverse the overall liquidity exhaustion in the market, and subsequent trading volumes remained at low levels.

Total Market Capitalization & Daily Growth Amount

According to CoinGecko data, as of February 26, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was $3.03 trillion, down 18% from the previous month. Among them, BTC's market share was 59.8%, and ETH's market share was 9.9%, falling below 10%.

New Popular Tokens in February

Among the new popular tokens launched in February, market attention has gradually shifted towards ecological projects, especially those centered around VC tokens. From market performance, new projects like PI, KAITO, and IP (Story) have gained widespread attention, with their token prices showing varying degrees of increase; meanwhile, the Berachain project mainly reflected in the steady growth of TVL, with its token price exhibiting sideways fluctuations.

3. On-Chain Data Analysis

3.1 Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF Inflows and Outflows

February BTC ETF Outflow of $8.86 Billion

In February, the macro market focused on the global trade pattern turmoil caused by the Trump administration's tariff policies, coupled with the negative sentiment from the $1.5 billion Ethereum theft incident at Bybit exchange due to a North Korean hacker attack, leading to a significant price correction for the two major cryptocurrencies. As of February 25, BTC's price fell from $105,064 at the beginning of the month to $91,870, a decrease of about -12.5%. In February, BTC ETF funds experienced outflows, with total outflows reaching $8.86 billion. Considering the factors behind BTC's price decline, the total value of BTC ETF holdings has decreased by -7.4% compared to January.

February ETH ETF Slight Outflow of $2.1 Billion

In February, Ethereum and other altcoins continued to experience significant corrections, facing a more severe situation. The Bybit theft incident (all stolen assets were ETH) further stimulated the decline in Ethereum's price. As of February 25, ETH's price fell from $3,426 at the beginning of the month to $2,492, a drop of -27.2%. In February, ETH ETF funds showed outflows, with total outflows of about -$2.1 billion, and the total value of ETH ETF holdings decreased by -2.97% compared to January.

3.2 Analysis of Stablecoin Inflows and Outflows

February Stablecoin Inflow of Approximately $7.56 Billion ------ Mainly from USDC, USDT, DAI

In February, despite significant negative factors affecting both the macro and cryptocurrency markets, the stablecoin market continued to show strong growth momentum. Among them, USDC became the main driver of growth this month, with circulation increasing by approximately $3.63 billion, occupying an important share of the stablecoin market expansion. Additionally, the total circulation of PYUSD increased from $480 million to $770 million, a growth rate of approximately 60.51%.

4. Price Analysis of Major Currencies

4.1 BTC Price Change Analysis

The Bitcoin market is facing the resonance pressure of multiple technical signals, with prices continuing to weaken after falling below $90,000. The daily chart has confirmed a break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since November 2023, which has now turned into a short-term resistance zone (between $88,000 and $89,200). The weekly chart shows a more severe trend disruption, with prices closing below the Bollinger Band middle line ($92,300) for two consecutive weeks, indicating a significant weakening of mid-term momentum. On-chain trading volume distribution shows that the range of $86,000 to $89,000 has accumulated about 530,000 BTC of historical turnover chips, forming a dense selling pressure zone, while the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $75,200 and the 50-week moving average at $78,500 form dual support. The current price has tested the $75,800 to $76,200 area three times; if a "triple bottom" structure can form with accompanying trading volume, it may trigger a short-term rebound. However, the weekly MACD histogram is still expanding below the zero axis, and although the daily RSI (14) has shown signs of a bottom divergence around 38, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level on the monthly chart ($71,800) remains a key defense line for the medium to long term. A breach below this level could trigger a deeper adjustment.

4.2 ETH Price Change Analysis

Ethereum's technical indicators show typical signs of weak linkage, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate accelerating toward the support level of 0.043 after breaking below 0.048, marking a new low since June 2022. In terms of independent pricing, the critical level of $2,850 is facing severe testing, as it coincides with the extended support of the upward trend line from 2023 and the holding cost area of approximately 18.7 million ETH on-chain. If the daily closing price continues to remain below this level, it may trigger passive reductions in staking positions. Technically, after the downward breakout of the daily symmetrical triangle, the theoretical measured target points to $2,200, while the 30-day historical volatility has dropped to 42% (the lowest since October 2023), indicating that the market is about to face a directional choice. The derivatives market is showing signs of differentiation: despite the downward trend in spot prices, ETH quarterly futures maintain a 5% annualized positive basis, indicating that some funds are positioning for long-term holdings at low levels. Additionally, although the recent theft incident at Bybit did not directly affect ETH on-chain assets, it raised concerns about the reserves of centralized exchanges, prompting some investors to sell ETH spot to avoid risks, further exacerbating short-term selling pressure.

4.3 SOL Price Change Analysis

Solana's price fluctuations exhibit clear signs of liquidity squeeze, with the current price level of $135 being in a high-risk zone. Technically, the 4-hour chart has formed a "descending flag" structure, and the loss or gain of the $130 neckline becomes crucial; if it effectively breaks down, it may open up a downward space to $98-$103 (corresponding to the Fibonacci 50% retracement level). On-chain data shows that whale addresses holding over 100,000 SOL have reduced their holdings by 4.2% in the past 30 days, coinciding with the 2.3% circulation unlock starting on March 1 (approximately 36.7 million SOL), creating a cumulative effect. Among them, wallets associated with Melania and Libra were monitored transferring 2.4 million SOL to exchanges in a single day, raising market concerns about systematic liquidity withdrawal by institutions.

5. Hot Events This Month

5.1 Argentine President's Coin Launch Fails, MEME Liquidity Harvested Again

On February 15, 2025, Argentine President Javier Milei announced the launch of a meme coin called LIBRA on his official X account, along with the relevant contract address. He claimed that the purpose of issuing LIBRA was for national financing, aimed at promoting the revival of the Argentine economy, particularly supporting small businesses and entrepreneurial projects.

Upon the announcement, LIBRA's market capitalization skyrocketed. Within just forty minutes, its market cap surged from zero to $4.5 billion, with the coin price rising from $0.12 to $4.61, an increase of 3,741%. However, this explosive growth did not last long. Within a few hours after reaching a market cap of $4.5 billion, due to significant cashing out by insiders, the coin price experienced a flash crash, and the market cap plummeted by over 80%, dropping from $4.5 billion to $257 million, causing huge losses for investors. Subsequently, Milei deleted the previous tweet about LIBRA and stated that he was not aware of the project's specific details at the time. After further understanding, he decided not to continue promoting the project. This action triggered a collapse of market confidence in LIBRA, leading to a continuous decline in its price. As of February 25, LIBRA's market cap was only $32 million.

The LIBRA incident not only caused a significant impact on the meme coin market but also sparked widespread legal and political controversies. Several lawyers filed criminal lawsuits against Milei for alleged fraud, and the opposition demanded his impeachment trial. Additionally, some media and experts pointed out that there might be suspicions of insider trading and money laundering behind the issuance of LIBRA, further intensifying public skepticism about the project. The LIBRA incident led to a substantial decline in market confidence in meme coins, with new meme coins being launched almost daily, but these new coins are often accompanied by speculation and selling, which is one of the reasons for the recent continuous decline in SOL's price.

5.2 Solana's Price Declines Sharply, Ecosystem Affected by Multiple Negative News

As of February 25, SOL's price fell from $230 at the beginning of the month to $134, a year-on-year decline of approximately -41%. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the Solana ecosystem has been affected by multiple negative events recently, including the LIBRA black swan, the unlocking of SOL auction tokens, and the establishment of AMM by Pump.Fun leading to increased internal conflicts within the ecosystem.

• The LIBRA black swan became the last straw that broke the MEME sector, causing many investors to lose confidence in MEME and thus increasing the selling pressure on SOL.

• On March 1, 11.2 million SOL from the FTX bankruptcy auction will be unlocked, valued at $2.06 billion, with the number of unlocked tokens accounting for about 2.29% of the current circulating supply of SOL. The massive selling pressure combined with a sluggish market led to further declines in SOL's price.

• Pump.Fun is about to launch an AMM liquidity pool, and launching its own AMM is undoubtedly a significant positive news for Pump.Fun, but at the same time, it means that it will break free from reliance on Raydium and Jupiter. Upon the announcement, the prices of RAY and JUP fell sharply. In the long run, strengthening internal competition can diversify projects within the ecosystem, but in the current context of SOL's continuous price decline, internal competition may further exacerbate market panic.

5.3 CZ's Direct Engagement Drives Traffic, BNB Chain Becomes the New Market Hotspot

In February, as the Solana MEME sector faced chaos, CZ personally engaged by tweeting to create hype, driving traffic to BNB Chain, which has risen strongly to become one of the core MEME trading public chains.

• TST: On February 6, CZ tweeted that the BNB Chain team tested the token TST, which was being hyped by KOLs, pointing out that the token was not issued by the team and they did not hold the token, and included a link to purchase the token, with its market cap briefly exceeding $50 million. On February 9, CZ tweeted again, stating that TST's Twitter and logo had not been officially obtained by Binance and did not belong to the Binance-related team, but the market trading enthusiasm continued unabated. Subsequently, CZ announced that Binance would list TST spot and contracts, causing TST's market cap to soar to $480 million, with market sentiment significantly boosted.

• BNB Ecosystem Upgrade Expectations: On February 11, CZ stated that it was time for BNB Chain to break free from constraints, and on the 12th, he announced the 2025 ecological construction goals, enhancing market expectations for the BNB ecosystem. Subsequently, BNB broke through $640, peaking at $725, significantly boosting market enthusiasm.

• Broccoli: On February 13, CZ responded to a netizen's question about his pet, stating that he owned a Belgian Malinois, and subsequently, a large number of imitation coins emerged on the BSC chain. On February 14, CZ announced the pet's name as Broccoli, without providing a contract address, but the community meme coins exploded, causing congestion on the BSC chain and the Fourmeme website to lag, hindering transactions. CZ later stated that this "stress test" revealed that the BSC chain still needs to optimize technical issues.

• SHELL: On February 13, BSC Chain, Binance Wallet, and PancakeSwap collaborated for the MyShell token SHELL public fundraising event (Binance Labs is one of MyShell's investors), which was oversubscribed by 105 times, with a total of 134,606 BNB participating in the subscription.

5.4 Bybit Cold Wallet Hacked, Creating the Largest Cryptocurrency Hacking Incident in History

On February 21, Bybit's cold wallet was hacked, resulting in the theft of assets worth $1.46 billion. This not only set a record for the largest single loss in the cryptocurrency field but also surpassed the $1 billion theft from the Central Bank of Iraq in 2003, becoming the largest theft in global financial history. Under such a massive amount of stolen funds, ETH briefly fell below the $2,700 mark. After the incident, several exchanges and institutions deposited funds to support Bybit; 12 hours after the security incident, Bybit saw inflows exceeding $4 billion, covering the losses from the theft. Bybit's rapid response helped temporarily alleviate market panic. Additionally, as Bybit needed to purchase ETH, this caused ETH's price to rise back to $2,800.

6. Outlook for Next Month

6.1 BNB Chain Expected to Lead a New MEME Boom

In February, against the backdrop of altcoin corrections and pressure on the Solana ecosystem, BNB Chain achieved a counter-trend breakout through multiple strategies. Binance founder CZ's frequent statements (such as supporting meme coins and emphasizing the technical roadmap) injected strong confidence into the ecosystem, with his tweets directly driving tokens like $TST to hundreds of times their initial value, creating a significant wealth effect. According to the 2025 roadmap released by BNB Chain, technological upgrades (such as sub-second block confirmation and anti-MEV wallet tools) and user experience optimization (reducing gas fees and multi-currency gas payments) are core focuses, aiming to create a lower barrier environment for meme trading. Therefore, it can be inferred that MEME will be one of the main development goals for BNB Chain in 2025.

Currently, under the traffic influence of Binance, BNB Chain has already initiated the first phase of the MEME hype cycle. In the current market context lacking new narrative drivers, BNB Chain may continue to rely on the hype of meme coins to maintain market attention, and there may still be high-return MEME projects emerging within the BNB Chain ecosystem in the short term. Additionally, BNB Chain's phased victories have opened opportunities for other public chain ecosystems, and more ecosystems may adopt BNB Chain's "event marketing + technological upgrades + wealth effect" triple strategy for promotion, leading to a new wave of excitement.

6.2 VC Tokens Show Active Performance, Likely to Regain Market Favor

The current cryptocurrency market is showing structural differentiation: amidst widespread corrections in altcoins, the decline of the Solana ecosystem's meme boom, and a lack of new narratives in the market, newly launched VC tokens represented by KAITO, IP, and Shell have emerged strongly, recording significant increases of 33%, 555%, and 124%, respectively. These projects exhibit two common characteristics: first, the initial circulation ratio is generally low, and second, airdrop releases are concentrated in the early stages of the project. This token economic design leads to significant selling pressure in the early trading phase, compounded by the market memory of VC tokens generally "breaking on launch," often resulting in a "high open, low close" short-term trend. However, recent market changes are significant: recent VC tokens have successfully reversed the traditional path of "peaking upon launch" through high control and continuous positive releases (such as ecological cooperation and technological upgrades), leading to their token prices rising against the trend. Whether they can maintain stable increases in the future still requires continuous attention.