Where is the breakthrough in a hellishly difficult bull market?

AI Agent Fatigue, Celebrity Coins Equated to Fraud, Major Narratives Paused

Since the beginning of this year, the biggest feature of the crypto circle has been the poor sustainability of price increases. This is not only reflected in the altcoins on exchanges but also in the on-chain tokens that performed well in Q4 2024, which are now facing significant declines.

Here are the price changes of major AI Agent tokens in 2025:

• Virtual: -79.2%
• Ai16 z: -85.5%
• AIXBT: -68%
• Griffain: -80.3%
• Buzz: -72.4%
• Fartcoin: -67.5%
• ARC: -62%
• Swarms: -45%

It can be observed that within less than three months, the leading projects of the trending narratives have dropped by 80%. Although it cannot be directly concluded that this sector is a scam, the loss of attention is an objective fact, and it cannot be regained in a short time.

Next, let's take a look at the celebrity coin narrative, which was initiated by Trump, followed by other celebrities and even countries.

Here are the major celebrity coins and their decline from their peak:

• Trump: -77.1%
• Melania: -91%
• Vine: -92.7%
• jailstool: -93.5%
• Jellyjelly: -98%
• CAR: -98.5%
• Libra: -94.3%

In the crypto circle, there is a saying that emphasizes trading new narratives over old ones, indicating that funds prefer to speculate on newer narratives. However, compared to AI Agent, the celebrity coin sector is evidently more ruthless. What are the current issues with these two sectors? In the current context of a lack of new narratives in the crypto circle, is there still a breakthrough point?

Reference: dexscreener

Current Narrative Dilemma: Prevailing Trend of Pure Concept Speculation

In the AI Agent sector, many projects are still at the stage of "concept demonstration" and "future blueprint," lacking actual usable products that can be widely promoted. Even if some operational services are launched in the market, issues such as complex interfaces and poor user experience still exist, preventing ordinary investors from developing real engagement. Worse still, project teams often exaggerate narratives to boost prices in order to meet investors' expectations of "AI + blockchain," while the actual application continues to be delayed. Over time, funds lose patience, and attention begins to shift, leading to a significant drop in the prices of related tokens.

In the case of celebrity coins, although Trump was a highly talked-about start, when the crypto circle encounters the "celebrity end effect," the problems become quite evident: there is probably no public figure who can surpass Trump in terms of topic and influence. Subsequent attempts by political figures, internet celebrities, and stars from various countries to follow suit have failed to replicate the initial funding enthusiasm and market sentiment. As market follow-through weakens, the celebrity coin sector exhibits a "flash in the pan" phenomenon, with investor confidence rapidly eroding, and prices naturally following suit.

However, the reason these sectors experience significant fluctuations lies in a deeper issue: many projects remain at the "concept speculation" level, lacking real and sustainable revenue models. Whether it is AI Agent or celebrity coins, their core narratives rely on rapid capital influx and hype but lack incentives for users to participate long-term. When the hype fades, prices struggle to hold up and cannot attract new funds to re-enter.

Finding Real Revenue Projects

To stand out in the current narrative-weary market, the key is to find products with "real revenue" that are willing to "share with users." "Real revenue" refers not only to the speculative bubble generated during the listing on exchanges but also to the continuous feedback generated through actual business models and trading behaviors, which is then returned to token holders or ecosystem participants.

Among them, Hype rliquid fits this model, operating similarly to centralized exchanges, with revenue primarily coming from contract trading fees. However, Hype rliquid uses 100% of the fees to buy back Hype tokens, and since trading fees are determined by trading volume, Hype rliquid tightly binds token prices to the product.

According to data from DefiLlama, Hype rliquid accounts for about 45% of the total 24-hour trading volume of all Perps DEX, currently handling $3.78B daily, with daily revenue around $1 million. Even in the current market downturn, it maintains extremely high activity, which is why, during the recent month of altcoin winter, the price of Hype has remained strong.

No matter how hot the narrative is, it will eventually pass. What can endure in the crypto market are projects with product-market fit (PMF), high user engagement, and real revenue.