The meme tide recedes, large unlocks, and the misfortunes of Solana—has its "good luck" run out?

Author: Baihua Blockchain

Due to Solana's outstanding performance in this round of market trends, many believe that this bull market is Solana's bull market. Looking back at Solana's development over the past few years, whether it rode the wave of DeFi Summer with Wall Street's entry or managed to grasp the "return of the king" meme craze after the FTX bankruptcy, it is hard not to feel that Solana's fortune is exceptionally good.

However, giants like FTX can fall overnight, and memes have their own rise and fall. Recently, there have been obvious signs of a "tide retreat" for memes, and with the upcoming large-scale unlock, it can be said that misfortunes do not come singly, putting immense pressure on Solana. Has its "good luck" really run out?

01 The Decline of Memes

Recently, on-chain data shows that since February, Solana's on-chain transaction volume has plummeted, and the number of launches on platforms related to meme launches has sharply decreased. Popular projects in the Solana ecosystem have all seen significant declines, and various FUD voices have begun to emerge on social platforms.

The rise of memes initially stemmed from calls for "anti-VC," "no bailouts," and "fair launches." However, after the meme craze took off, various institutions quickly became "big players," seizing advantageous ecological positions. The crypto community soon realized that without continuous funding, memes relying solely on fair launches were fleeting. Consequently, most people turned back to the embrace of various institutions, taking on their positions.

Soon after, the presidential coin representing celebrity top-tier status was born. The Trump family Token quickly drained liquidity from the market, followed by the arrival of the Milei Token, which dealt a heavy blow. In hindsight, people gradually discovered that behind these celebrity projects was a team of operators, and some were even interconnected. Each hotly pursued project had an invisible hand manipulating it, leaving the crypto community feeling like they were being rubbed into the ground. Some KOLs bluntly stated that our crypto community just wanted to break out of the circle, not to let celebrities from outside come in and cash out…

Ultimately, the rise and fall of the meme craze exposed the "evil" of human nature. Greedy retail investors who speculated excessively could never escape the fate of being "the bag holders." This dealt a huge blow to the meme market and was like a heavy blow to the Solana ecosystem, which had rapidly risen due to the meme craze. The implications are self-evident.

02 The Extremely Untimely Large Unlock

While still immersed in the sadness of the meme retreat, another despairing message arrived: "On March 1, 11.2 million SOL will be unlocked." At first, people mistakenly thought this was an unlock planned in the token economic model, which usually involves small-scale unlocks that have little impact on market conditions. However, this large unlock is the second blow brought about by the FTX bankruptcy. Simply put, these 11.2 million SOL are part of the tokens sold during the liquidation process of FTX. These tokens were set with a certain vesting schedule during trading, usually lasting 1-3 years, and will be unlocked by March 2025, thus entering the circulating market.

After FTX's bankruptcy in November 2022, the massive SOL held by its affiliate Alameda Research became part of the liquidation assets. It is estimated that FTX/Alameda initially held about 58 million SOL, accounting for 10%-15% of Solana's total supply at that time. The bankruptcy trustee (led by John J. Ray III) subsequently sold these tokens to institutional investors at a discounted price. Reports indicate that institutions such as Pantera Capital, Galaxy Digital, and Figure Markets purchased these tokens. According to information on X and on-chain data (such as tracking by Lookonchain), the market estimates the selling price of these tokens to be around $60-80 each (30-40% of the current market price).

Since the upcoming 11.2 million SOL were acquired by institutions at a discounted low cost, the market expects that if no one quickly absorbs them off-market, the unlock may bring significant selling pressure to SOL, which has already affected the current market price and the Solana ecosystem community.

03 Has Solana's Good Luck Run Out?

So, has Solana's good luck really run out with these misfortunes? It seems not. Whether it is the anticipated approval of Solana's spot ETF this year or Trump's series of friendly crypto policies, both can be considered as a continuation of Solana's good fortune.

The Solana spot ETF, which may be approved as early as June this year, is highly anticipated. Currently, on well-known prediction platforms, the probability of Solana ETF being approved by 2025 is 84%, while the probability of approval before June 31 is 38%. Based on the performance of previously approved Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the Bitcoin spot ETF currently holds a value of over $110 billion, while the Ethereum spot ETF holds a value of over $10 billion. Given Solana's institutional support, there will likely be inflows of at least several billion dollars, which could easily cover the negative impact of the 11.2 million unlock. However, the problem is that the unlock is imminent, while the ETF approval is still months away.

As for Trump's series of friendly policies, they are indeed gradually being implemented, creating a friendly regulatory environment for the entire crypto industry. Thanks to the accelerated catalysis of the meme craze, the Solana ecosystem has already made notable progress. At the beginning of 2025, Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume once surpassed that of Ethereum, successfully passing a stress test, and both user numbers and activity levels are showing strong momentum.

In addition, the growth rate of Solana's developer community is also quite rapid, and the upcoming iterations and upgrades in Solana's roadmap will improve various existing shortcomings in its technology. Its ecosystem continues to attract more attention, with top institutions like PayPal and Franklin Templeton also joining in.

04 Conclusion

Whether the meme craze is cooling down or the large unlock is approaching, these are actually short-term "growing pains," which are quite common in the crypto field and cannot be used to conclude that Solana will fall. Moreover, encountering a friendly regulatory environment for crypto while its ecosystem is developing well is even more advantageous for a leading public chain founded in the United States. As for the longer-term future, we will wait for more tests brought by time.