Play with coins to Zhao or play with coins to zero? Is CZ going to launch a MemeCoin too?

Source: Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside

A few years ago, there was a popular joke that in this field, many people's final outcome was "playing coins returns to Zhao," where Zhao refers to CZ (Zhao Changpeng, the founder of Binance).

However, due to the explosive narrative of MemeCoin in this cycle, tens of millions of coins have appeared out of nowhere, so for many people, "playing coins returns to Zhao" seems to have turned into "playing coins returns to zero."

Entering the market during a bull run and ultimately losing money in the bull run seems to still be a fate for many retail investors.

1. About the issue of deposits/withdrawals

Recently, there have still been no less than ten friends leaving messages in the background asking me about deposit and withdrawal issues, and some even impatiently asked to directly exchange oil from me, hoping I could help them. Just from this tip of the iceberg, it seems the bull market is still on.

But at least half of these friends seem to be coming in with the goal of getting rich quickly. Sometimes after asking this question, they continue to message me to recommend coins that can make money right now.

Even more, some directly ask how to safely withdraw funds after making 1 million. I couldn't help but reply out of curiosity about the size of their funds. They said they planned to invest 5,000 RMB, and I fell silent… because I didn't know what to say and could only wish this brave soul good luck. As a certain big shot once said: "Dreams are still important; what if they come true?"

The issue of deposits and withdrawals is actually very sensitive, so I generally do not respond to most of these background messages.

First of all, topics like deposits and withdrawals are illegal or even against regulations in China, so I usually avoid discussing them and certainly won't provide any services in this area, nor do I want to talk about it with anyone.

Secondly, if I remember correctly, I mentioned in an earlier article that my personal assets in the real world and on-chain assets are clearly proportioned. The funds on-chain will always remain on-chain, and I haven't engaged in such activities in recent years, so I don't understand the current deposit and withdrawal practices and don't want to learn about them.

Back to the previous point, losing money in a bull market seems to be a fate for many (including my own experience of losing money in the first bull market), so there's no need to rush to consider or study how to withdraw funds. What I can tell you is that when you really make 1 million or 10 million dollars, you will naturally know that different fund sizes have different channels.

As for new investors, I can only remind you briefly: make sure to go through platforms, do not casually add merchants for private transactions, and do not casually provide merchants with personal privacy or sensitive information.

This topic ends here. Interested friends can search for relevant materials or tutorials on YouTube.

2. About feelings and obligations

A couple of days ago, I saw a post from the big shot Yu Xian saying: "Do not help those who take out loans to trade coins and then lose money, have their funds stolen, or get scammed." As shown in the image below.

As for why Yu Xian would say such things, perhaps only those who have been KOLs or bloggers or have had related experiences would understand.

Over the years, I have seen too many people lose money, and some have even ended up with broken families because of it.

Especially since I started publicly writing articles, I have faced various situations of people losing money more frequently, such as:

• Those who believed strangers could help them get rich and fell into scams (like being lured to a shady exchange to trade) and lost all their principal, leaving messages in the background asking me what to do and if I could help them recover their money.

• Those who directly went all in on a certain scam or meme coin because they trusted KOL's recommendations, only to end up with significant losses, asking me what to do and if there was a quick way to recover their losses.

• Those who frequently traded and switched positions, leading to their capital being halved or severely diminished, leaving messages asking how to improve or asking me to recommend a tenfold coin to help them turn things around.

• Those who blew up their accounts after using high leverage and trading contracts, leaving messages asking how to turn the situation around and if I had any contract trading secrets to share.

• Those who lost money buying into a project mentioned in my historical articles (note: just in 2023, the project analysis series from Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside has mentioned over 1,000 projects) and left messages asking me for rights protection and compensation (if we follow this logic, then since CoinMarketCap has mentioned tens of thousands of projects, everyone should be asking BN for compensation).

• And so on…

Today, I saw a friend in the group share a saying that I think is very good, so I’ll post it here: "If there is no dimension of time, then we are all gamblers."

I remember when I first started producing content, I frequently gave various kind reminders, such as:

For newcomers, entering this field, you must remember two basic investment principles: one is to protect your principal, and the other is to avoid what you don't understand.

The crypto field is a very high-risk area; you need to have risk awareness. If you want to participate in investment, you must manage your positions well, with at least 50% of your position in BTC.

And so on… such advice.

But many people who should lose money really haven't missed a single cent, no matter how many times you say it, it doesn't help, and it might even bring some unfounded blame or accusations from others.

Yesterday (February 12), I saw a blogger with over 100,000 followers on X sharing a chat record with his followers, and I found the blogger's tone quite interesting. As shown in the image below.

When I saw him use the term "diao mao," I almost laughed at the blogger's humorous tone. However, I thought about it; sometimes being straightforward might not be a bad thing. Of course, I believe that the "diao mao" in this blogger's tone is just a catchphrase, similar to how many people habitually say "I f***" in conversation, which is not meant to be malicious.

Learning how to effectively refuse is truly an art.

Everyone likes to hear nice things, but if we think seriously, perhaps we should cherish those who call us "diao mao," those who can directly point out our shortcomings or problems. At least such people won't deceive you into a scam and are basically just telling you the truth.

In contrast, we should try to stay away from those who call you "family" every day, because this "family" might just be a product they see as a nine-dollar-and-nine-cents free shipping item or even a pig waiting to be slaughtered.

The above is just a small reflection I had after seeing that blogger share the chat record. I personally don't have any special catchphrases, so I naturally wouldn't call others "diao mao," nor would I use "family" to engage in scams. I personally prefer to refer to others as "partners."

Because the term "partner" represents equality, friendliness, companionship, and refers to a group of people with common interests (and on the same wavelength) learning, progressing, and growing together.

Even my peers or competitors, I like to call them "industry partners."

However, as the number of followers continues to increase, sometimes you may consider someone a partner, but they might see you as a fool or a big spender. So when encountering people on different wavelengths, I will directly block them in the background; this is better for both parties. For example, a while ago, I encountered a rather ridiculous situation:

Someone left a message saying they were from a certain project (a project I had never heard of) and asked if I would accept advertisements. I said I don't accept any advertisements. The other party said it was okay; they just wanted to make friends and asked me to add them on TG. I said I usually don't add people on TG, and then they said to leave an email for me to send their project materials for me to take a look and give some feedback. The result… I opened the email and took a glance; the attachment was in a format I found unfamiliar, and I figured that if I dared to click or download it, my computer would likely get infected.

In short, no matter how you put it, there are indeed many opportunities to make money, even get rich, in this field, but these are not prepared for most ordinary people. In fact, this is true in any field. Don't always think about how to make money; before you think about making money, you must consider in advance what to do if you lose money and what your response plan is. Also, don't casually place your dreams of making money on others (especially strangers), and don't pin your hopes of recovering losses or turning things around on others.

You are blessed if others help you, but they are not obliged to.

3. Next, let's continue to see what other noteworthy or interesting things have happened in the past couple of days:

- Did CZ finally resist the urge to launch a MemeCoin?

This morning, I saw friends in the group discussing this matter, so I took a look and found that CZ responded to community suggestions about creating a MemeCoin with his pet dog, saying it was interesting and that he would consider it for a day or two as usual. As shown in the image below.

Wow, as soon as this news broke, thousands of related MemeCoins popped up on-chain, mostly related to CZ/BNB, and everywhere you look, there are various dog avatars and memes. As shown in the image below.

As of the writing of this article, the price of BNB has also risen to over 700, indicating that many people are ready with funds, now just waiting for CZ's new tweet to prepare for a public PvP showdown. Is "playing coins returns to zero" about to turn into "playing coins returns to Zhao" again?

- The U.S. released data last night (February 12, Beijing time), showing that CPI inflation rose by 0.5% in one month, the largest increase since August 2023.

Additionally, from a year-on-year perspective, the U.S. CPI in January increased by 3%, higher than the expected 2.9%, marking the largest increase since June 2024. This significantly impacts expectations for interest rate cuts; originally, it was anticipated that a rate cut would occur by September at the latest, but market analysts have now pushed back the expectation to December.

However, this result does not seem to have caused significant fluctuations in the crypto market yesterday and today. Although Bitcoin dropped from around $96,500 to about $94,000 shortly after the news was released last night, it has basically recovered this morning. The spot price has recovered, but this process won't affect liquidations; those who need to be liquidated will still be liquidated. According to on-chain data, in just the past 12 hours, $245 million in funds were liquidated, with $124 million in long positions and $121 million in short positions.

Returning to the issue of interest rate cuts, although the short-term impact seems minimal, according to this expectation, the dollar will definitely continue to strengthen this year. From a macro perspective, this is also unfavorable for crypto risk assets overall. Moreover, tonight the U.S. will release PPI data, as shown in the image below.

Additionally, the market is currently most concerned about Trump's potential tariff policy. Analysts have noted that since the trade war began, one-year inflation expectations have soared, as shown in the image below, which may also exacerbate inflation issues.

Of course, we shouldn't be too pessimistic about this data. After all, housing CPI (shelter CPI) accounts for 30% of the overall increase, and this data generally lags by 12 months. From this perspective, the actual inflation may be milder than the numbers we see. Furthermore, the U.S. may choose to digest this impact in advance before the potential tariff policy, which might not necessarily be bad for the market. Additionally, from Bitcoin's actual performance over the past two days, there seems to be some asymmetric behavior. Perhaps (note that this is just a personal guess), we will soon welcome a new wave of Bitcoin price increases. Seize this last possible opportunity.

In summary, not only in the crypto market but also in other financial markets, under the multi-dimensional influences of the DeepSeek concept, tariff wars, expectations of interest rate cuts, and inflation expectations, volatility has increased significantly. As for the crypto market, from a broader macro perspective, the remaining imaginative space this year may be focused on Bitcoin's strategic reserves and the ETF for altcoins (including the staking part within the ETF).

Regarding national strategic reserves, as of February 13, 27 states in the U.S. have proposed bills related to Bitcoin reserves, as shown in the image below. From a long-term perspective, it seems quite likely that the U.S. will turn Bitcoin reserves into a form of "decentralized U.S. Treasury bonds."

Regarding altcoin ETFs, we mentioned in yesterday's (February 12) article that besides LTC, XRP, SOL, DOGE, etc., which may be approved today, some institutions seem to be actively applying for and promoting proposals for staking Ethereum ETFs.

- Coinbase's earnings significantly exceeded expectations

Someone made a statistic showing that Coinbase's (COIN) Q4 earnings had an EPS (Earnings Per Share) of $6.07, a 432% increase from Q4 2023, and they expect to achieve $65 billion in revenue for the 2024 fiscal year (note: Coinbase's revenue for the 2021 fiscal year was $7.8 billion). As shown in the image below.

So, why do we need to pay attention to Coinbase?

There are actually two core points:

First, Coinbase represents the investment sentiment of U.S. investors.

Second, as an important custodian of crypto assets for major institutions, we can even infer the future progress of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve fund by observing its growth (for example, once a national Bitcoin reserve fund is established, it will inevitably accelerate institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, and Coinbase, as a compliant exchange in the U.S., is likely to become the main platform for these institutions' large-scale trading and custody).

That's all for today.