Does Pumpfun want to continue issuing tokens to suck blood? Why are many projects rushing to launch now?

Source: Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside

The news about Pumpfun issuing tokens has actually been circulating for a while. I remember many partners were trying to get involved in this project, hoping to receive airdrops. However, from the information currently available, it seems they will directly adopt a Dutch auction method for issuing tokens, rather than directly airdropping to users. Although the Pumpfun team has already made some clarifications, it seems that issuing tokens has become a highly probable event. As shown in the image below.

In the past year, Pumpfun has earned over $570 million just from transaction fees. This is apparently not enough, as they want to continue to profit through token issuance. It seems that many people (teams) want to take advantage of the last possible market conditions this year to make a big gain.

In fact, we discussed this issue in our article a couple of days ago: many projects are accelerating towards TGE (which can be understood as token issuance). If I remember correctly, the last time various popular projects accelerated TGE was around September and October of last year (2024).

Additionally, in previous articles, we have already outlined that this round of bull market is primarily driven by ETFs. In terms of altcoins, MemeCoins have captured most of the hotspots, traffic, topics, and liquidity throughout the process. From the launch of this year's presidential MemeCoin TRUMP, it also marks the peak of the cyclical phase for most MemeCoins, as no other person or organization can have the same level of influence and attraction as a presidential token. The subsequent celebrity token launches are merely following this trend.

If you notice that exchanges are still desperately listing some projects that have a certain level of heat, topicality, or even previous CX suspicions (to put it nicely, those with a mass base), then it is highly likely that this is part of the current projects' strategy to accelerate TGE, hoping to make a big gain from the last possible market conditions this year.

At the same time, since most retail investors may already be tired of participating in PvP battles (where only early birds and insiders can make money), and with the peak of the MemeCoin cyclical phase having passed, even in the upcoming altcoin market, MemeCoin concepts still have a chance to rebound first. However, it is unlikely that we will see a widespread rise in MemeCoins or scenarios of overnight wealth like before, as many people have become fatigued, trapped, pessimistic, or even experienced post-traumatic stress reactions… Unless a massive influx of new users comes into this field due to some major event (like China announcing the legalization of this matter, which I believe is 100% impossible).

But if you still have the energy to participate in the MemeCoin narrative, then you may need to implement strict risk management and position allocation, as in the last bull market you had 3,000 coins to choose from, while this bull market could have 30 million coins (including on-chain, which may reach 100 million by the end of the year) available for selection.

Let's take Pumpfun as an example. As one of the popular one-click token issuance platforms, this platform (officially launched in January 2024) still issues 40,000 to 50,000 new tokens daily, which will undoubtedly further dilute the already insufficient liquidity of altcoins. As shown in the image below.

And don't forget, Pumpfun is just one of many token issuance platforms. Therefore, if you continue to think along this line, you need to appropriately lower your original expectations, as in this cycle, some of the previously most commonly used indicators (like TOTAL2, TOTAL3, etc.) do not fully cover the complete on-chain data. We mentioned this issue in our article last week (February 3), as shown in the image below.

My original plan was to consider liquidating all remaining altcoin positions in batches when the market cap of TOTAL2 breaks through around $2 trillion, but this month I decided to make some necessary adjustments based on my personal risk preferences and time and energy, as shown in the image below.

The development of things is always cyclical. Often after experiencing prosperity (bubbles), many people (funds) may choose to return to those projects with better fundamentals and clearer development visions.

Remember, in a liquidity market, only by managing risks and positions well can you have the opportunity not to become a victim of others exiting liquidity. At the same time, learn to let go and face past losses, and try to keep your vision on the future.

Here, let's revisit that sentence from our article yesterday (February 11): The current market seems to be in a state of indecision, and this state often indicates that we may soon welcome greater volatility. Seize the possible and few remaining opportunities in the first quarter to the second quarter of this year; markets often emerge from despair, explode in divergence, and end in madness.

Having discussed Pumpfun and the current market situation, let's take a look at some other noteworthy or interesting events from the past few days:

- Powell says the U.S. economy is strong

On February 11, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the overall U.S. economy is currently strong, with the inflation rate close to the 2% target, but still slightly high. If the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation decreases more than expected, policies can be moderately relaxed. However, if the economy remains strong and inflation does not approach 2%, a cautious policy stance may need to be maintained for a longer period.

Powell's remarks seem to have had little impact on the crypto market. Although Bitcoin did drop slightly, the decline was not significant; perhaps this expectation has already been priced in by the market. However, look at how he phrases it: no matter what the problem is, as long as you practice Tai Chi, you can easily deflect the issue. It reminds me of a joke from a partner in the group: it's either up or down, and sideways is also possible. Please avoid chasing highs while also avoiding missing out.

In the next couple of days, the market will also face the latest inflation data from the U.S., namely CPI and PPI data. Let's wait and see.

- Which altcoin ETF do you think will be approved first this year: SOL, DOGE, XRP, LTC, or ADA?

On February 11, Grayscale submitted an application for an ADA ETF to the New York Stock Exchange. Recently, they have also applied for SOL, XRP, and DOGE ETFs. As shown in the image below.

Analysts believe that the approval probability for LTC this year is 90%, for DOGE it is 75%, for SOL it is 70%, and for XRP it is 65%, as shown in the image below. So, which one do you think will be approved first?

- MicroStrategy continues to buy Bitcoin

On February 10, MicroStrategy publicly announced that they bought 7,633 BTC at a price of approximately $742.4 million, with an average purchase price of $97,255. As of now, MicroStrategy holds 478,740 BTC, with an average holding cost of $65,033 per Bitcoin. As shown in the image below.

- Ethereum Foundation starts taking action

The Ethereum Foundation has transferred 50,000 ETH to a multi-signature wallet, and these funds will be used to support and participate in the construction of the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem. As shown in the image below.

In addition to the above, there are a few other noteworthy events from the past few days:

• Unichain mainnet has been launched

• Berachain (BERA) continues to initiate social airdrop claims

• Story (IP) airdrop

• RedStone Oracles may have TGE and airdrop this month

• LiveArt may have TGE and airdrop this month

• Arkham (ARKM) first season airdrop claims

• B3 initiates first season airdrop claims

• Monad testnet will be released this month, along with an airdrop

• AAVE will be deployed on Sonic and Linea this week

• FTX small claims are expected to start around February 18, while large claims (over $50,000) will begin in the second quarter, totaling about $11 billion to $13 billion. How much of this money do you think will return to the crypto market?

• It is said that OpenSea may also issue tokens in the second quarter of this year.

That's all for today.