B3 token rises 4 times in 3 days: A retail frenzy or capital harvesting again?

Author: Alvis, MarsBit

Opening Controversy: The Magical Reality of B3 Token

Today we are going to talk about the B3 token, which can be considered the most magical script in the crypto world of 2025------a "divine coin" operated by former Coinbase employees, claiming to be the "Tesla of the gaming industry," with a price surge of 249% in just three days, now harvesting global investors as the "Base chain leader."

Let’s throw out some numbers to set the stage:

• B3's current price is $0.014, skyrocketing from a low of $0.04 when it launched on February 10 to a peak of $0.02 on February 12, nearly a 400% increase in three days, faster than the price increase of the pancake rolls at your local shop;

• Total supply of 10 billion tokens, with the team and investors taking 43.3% directly, meaning for every 10 tokens issued, 4 went into the pockets of the speculators;

• On the first day of launch, 900 million tokens were airdropped, with the degree of control by the speculators comparable to the behind-the-scenes boss in "Squid Game."

This magical plot would make even the screenwriters of "The Wolf of Wall Street" exclaim in admiration. Today, Marsbit will take you through the valuation logic of B3 using "physical hacks" to see whether this thing is a "new infrastructure for gaming revolution" or a "3.0 harvesting machine for investors."

B3's "Triple Persona"------Quantum Entanglement of Technology, Capital, and Investors

Technical Persona: The "Gaming Highway" on Base Chain

B3 officially claims to be a "Layer3 gaming-specific chain on Base," which in simple terms means: building another layer on Coinbase's favored Base chain (Layer2) specifically for game developers to provide "private room services." The technical advantages of this thing are twofold:

• Gas fees are ridiculously low: each transaction costs $0.001, cheaper than buying a bottle of water at a convenience store;

• TPS is frighteningly high: theoretical peak of 9000+, actually running faster than Solana.

But there’s a dark humor here: B3's technical foundation relies entirely on the Base chain, which in turn is supported by the security of Ethereum.

In other words, B3 is like a "third landlord"------Ethereum is the landlord, Base chain is the second landlord, and B3 is the one converting the basement into a capsule hotel. Once Ethereum gets congested (like during an NFT craze), B3's speed advantage immediately turns into a crawl.

Capital Persona: The "Reemployment Plan" of Former Coinbase Stars

B3's core team is entirely composed of former Coinbase employees: CEO Daryl Xu worked for 4 years in business development, CTO Sean Geng is a former Coinbase engineer, and even the funding is backed by Coinbase's ecosystem fund. This background is like writing "former Alibaba P9" on a resume------investors see it and get excited, directly pouring in $21 million in seed funding.

But here’s the problem: if these people are really that impressive, why not continue to get promoted and earn more at Coinbase, instead of coming out to create a gaming chain? The answer may lie in the token distribution------the team and advisors take 23.3%, and investors take 20%, totaling 43.3%, which, at the current price, means a market value of at least $400 million after unlocking. This isn’t entrepreneurship; it’s clearly a "guide for former big company employees to cash out."

Investor Persona: The "Double Helix Harvester" of Airdrops and Games

B3's most audacious move is "airdrop economics":

• First wave of airdrops: According to Dune data, 9.9 billion tokens have been airdropped, with players earning "points by playing games" to exchange, but the point rules are as complex as a college entrance exam math problem;

• Second wave of airdrops: Promises of future "tournaments" and "gamified mining," but the specific rules? Sorry, the speculators call the shots.

This kind of trick is essentially "using token subsidies to exchange for user data"------you think you’re shearing sheep, but in reality, you’re being sold as data packets to game developers. Even more outrageous, B3 has also set up "staking mining," with an annualized return of 35% looking tempting, but upon closer inspection: if the token price drops by 35%, the principal is directly halved. This isn’t financial management; it’s practically "Russian roulette."

Valuation Model Breakdown------A Fantastical Drift from Science to Metaphysics

1. Relative Valuation Method: How Much is B3 Worth Compared to Axie and Sandbox?

Let’s first look at the peers:

• Axie Infinity (AXS): Peak market value of $28 billion, daily active users of 2.7 million, with a per-user valuation of $10,000;

• The Sandbox (SAND): Peak market value of $20 billion, daily active users of 500,000, with a per-user valuation of $40,000;

- B3: Claims to have 6 million daily active users (which may be inflated), based on a per-user valuation of $10,000, the market value should be $60 billion? But in reality, B3's circulating market value is only $260 million, with an FDV of $1.4 billion, not even a fraction of that.

There’s a shocking loophole here: among B3's 6 million users, 90% are just there for the airdrop, with real players possibly fewer than 600,000. Based on this data, B3's reasonable valuation should be 600,000 users × $10,000 = $60 billion, which is 30 times higher than the current market value. But the problem is------once these users claim their airdrops, they will immediately withdraw and run, leaving you with a bunch of zombie accounts.

2. DCF Model: Future Cash Flow? No, Future Ability to Make Promises!

A proper valuation should look at cash flow, but where is B3's cash flow? The official white paper lists a bunch of scenarios:

• In-game transaction fees: charging 0.5% per transaction, but currently, 80% of games are free to play, is that just air?

• Staking rewards: 35% annualized, but this is using new investors' money to pay old investors interest, a typical Ponzi structure;

• Advertising revenue: the advertising price for blockchain games is less than 1/10 of Web2, and the money earned isn’t even enough to pay for server electricity.

So B3's real valuation model should be:

Market Value = Team Background × Airdrop Popularity × Investor FOMO Factor ÷ Regulatory Risk

Translated into plain language: former Coinbase team + crazy airdrops + investors picking up the pieces -- SEC surprise inspections = current price.

3. On-chain Data Metaphysics: The Love Triangle of Whales, Retail Investors, and Speculators

Let’s take a look at B3's on-chain data:

• The top 10 addresses, excluding tokens held by exchanges, account for a total of 72%: a clear case of speculator control, with price fluctuations entirely dependent on the big players' moods;

• Net inflow of 12,000 tokens to exchanges: even with the price increase, there are still people rushing to recharge, either retail investors chasing highs or speculators fishing;

• Contract funding rate -0.12%: shorts are betting on a crash, but the price is being forcibly pushed up, clearly a case of speculators squeezing the market.

In this data environment, technical analysis is less reliable than rolling dice.

Risks and Traps------Secrets That Speculators Won't Tell You

1. Token Unlocking: The Sword of Damocles Hanging Overhead

The biggest risk with B3 tokens is that "the team and investors lock 25% for the first year, then unlock over 48 months." What does this mean? Assuming the current price is $0.1, if it drops to $0.01 when unlocked in a year, the speculators still make 10 times profit (after all, their cost might be less than $0.001). Retail investors are fighting in the secondary market while the speculators are counting their money at home.

2. Regulatory Nuclear Bomb: SEC's "Securities Classification" Sniper Rifle

The B3 team is entirely composed of individuals with American backgrounds, and the token is on Coinbase's favored Base chain, making it a live target for the SEC. Once classified as a security:

• Exchanges will collectively delist: referring to the XRP case, the price could be halved;

• The team faces collective lawsuits: fines could reach hundreds of millions of dollars.

3. Ecological Bubble: 80 Games, 80 Landmines?

B3 claims to have 80 games launched, but upon closer inspection:

• 70% are reskinned mini-games: like "on-chain Tetris" and "blockchain Minesweeper";

• 20% are riding the AI hype: like that Zerebro AI game, which is even less intelligent than Siri;

• The remaining 10% are still under development: the screenshots on the official website are all from PS.

This kind of ecosystem is like the "food street" at your doorstep------with a dazzling array of signs, but inside, it’s all Lanzhou noodles and Sha County snacks.

The Ultimate Soul-Searching Question------Should You Buy Now?

1. Short-term Gamblers:

• Strategy: Take out no more than 5% of your position, set a stop-loss line (for example, cut losses if it drops below $0.08), and bet that the speculators will push it to $0.2;

• Risk: You might become fuel for a "pump and dump," buried at the top of the mountain.

2. Long-term Believers:

• Strategy: Invest monthly, ignore fluctuations, and bet on B3 becoming the "Steam of blockchain games";

• Risk: There’s a high probability of facing a price crash when the tokens unlock, with a 90% reduction in principal.

3. Rational Investors:

• Strategy: Watch from the sidelines, wait for the token unlocking period to pass before buying in;

• Risk: You might miss out on short-term surges, but you’ll protect your principal.

Conclusion: The Survival Rules of the Crypto World

The story of the B3 token is essentially a trio of "technological vision + capital operation + human greed." Its price surge is neither a miracle nor a scam, but a reflection of the inherent laws of the crypto market: before consensus is formed, all value is a bubble; after consensus collapses, all bubbles are tears.

Finally, here’s a crypto saying for everyone: "In a bull market, everyone is a stock god; in a bear market, everyone is a philosopher." Cherish life and trade cryptocurrencies rationally.